You are right, which is why I'd structure Prior's deal differently. He's guaranteed $2.5m in 2006. He supposedly can make as much as $5m in arbitration if he takes that option. So, I say offer him a deal that guarantees him $6m in 2006, then $9m in 2007, and $10m in 2008 (that's $25m guaranteed. If he just went to arbitration every year he might make 5/8-9/10-11 ($10m is about the max for arby players now, but what will it be in 2008). But then you add a kicker, the Cubs get a team option for $12-14m that 4th year (taking away his first free agency year, but still leaving him plenty of time to sign a pre-30 once in a lifetime deal if he develops as expected). Maybe throw in a buyout if they don't pick up that last year. Goony, please fax the Cubs your resume.