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CubinNY

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Everything posted by CubinNY

  1. CubinNY
    I hate this guy's pre-pitch routine.
  2. CubinNY
    I'm not disagreeing, but does this sound like a Jed/Ricketts move?
  3. CubinNY
    The pen. I know that’s not new or news, but yeah, it’s bad if it takes two plus months to get sorted again.
  4. CubinNY
    Horton has to show he can manage a starting pitcher workload. He's not young and he's pitched less than 200 innings between college and professional baseball. That's not the profile of a starting pitcher. I understand why they limit innings and all the other stuff, but at some point, he has to pitch like a starter for more than a handful of starts. Flame away.
  5. CubinNY
    yes, just waiting to see where the new breakdown will come from. It's terrible to be conditioned this way.
  6. CubinNY
    I don't know if I'm getting older and it matters less to me, but this was the least enjoyable Cubs season I can remember since 2010-2013. Absolutely no reason to enjoy after April. The worst part for me is that it was by design. The Ricketts have drained almost all of my fandom.
  7. CubinNY
    They sent Javy home.
  8. CubinNY
    He looked fine. He was on time with a pitch down the middle but fowled it straight back. If they decide to trade him, I hope it's for a real difference-maker.
  9. CubinNY
    Jed is the perfect fit for the owners. He may get fired or leave at the end of the next season but we can rest assured that they will find another just like him. They have their idea of how to build a winning team and a financial limit they will not stray much past. They have their championship and will now and forever be counting coin.
  10. CubinNY
    I still think he's got some kind of a nagging injury he's playing through. We know the priorities for next year include pitching, but I'd like to see some better bench guys they can plug in.
  11. CubinNY
    You are the king of not getting it.
  12. CubinNY
    Jeez o' pete. Can we agree that they were among the most used relievers and stop with the pedantic bull horsefeathers. The point stands and no amount of hair splitting will change that. One can blame Ross or Jed or both. And "riding" a lightning in a bottle is stupid.
  13. CubinNY
    O happy day
  14. CubinNY
    Funny is doing a lot of there.
  15. CubinNY
    You just want things to click in place for the Bears and they never do. If they could run the ball as well as they did two years ago or even last year that would take some pressure off. They are constantly treading water up to their nose
  16. CubinNY
    The Tigers are about to be a really good team. They are not trading Skubal.
  17. CubinNY
    Send your resume to the Bears with one of your 739 line posts on here. They will hire you in a 2nd. They need someone with brains in Hallas Hall.
  18. CubinNY
    ERA is not a good metric for a bullpen pitcher.
  19. CubinNY
    Hangover lineup I would imagine.
  20. CubinNY
    This is one area that I trust them to make the correct decision if they target a guy. They have a pretty good track record. I'm more worried about injury than performance.
  21. CubinNY
    Getting back on track - The Cubs strategy for the bullpen banks on hard-to-repeat outcomes. Grabbing guys off the DFA/waiver wire and mixing them in through attrition is based on a failure model. Failure in the pen usually means losing winnable games. We've seen it play out now for a couple of years. They are recycling the same strategy this year. We should expect similar results, but hey maybe they'll get "lucky".
  22. CubinNY
    An outcome that is hard to repeat means that's is hard to repeat outcome. The outcome is whatever happened. You might as well say Lucifer made it happen.
  23. CubinNY
    Variability exists, but we live in a deterministic universe, it's explainable in theory and extrinsic to behavior. So a guy goes out to a restaurant the night before a day game and has a slight case of intestinal discomfort. The next day his performance is adversely affected. Several factors may or may not account for his performance and how much it deviates from typical performance, none of which depend on luck. We may not be able to quantify the contributions of all the variables with any certainty because of how complex the interplay is between all of them. That's what makes sports fun. Variability of behavior and luck are often used interchangeably by people.
  24. CubinNY
    luck is a default explanation. it's what we say when we don't know. It's an attribute to a mystical force for which there is no tangle proof. Is an unlikely outcome due to voodoo or witchcraft? Most people would say no. But we talk about luck all the time when it's the same explanation. When we analyze or explain outcomes in sports we are dealing with complex systems, so we invent things that help us (models, descriptive and inferential statistics, spray charts, etc.). Those inventions are often useful, but never perfect. I saw a post saying the Brewers got lucky this year because they didn't have a guy have a huge year. When in fact, the brewers are the organization that the Cubs aspire to be. They know how to pick players that fit their model and plug them in to get the best outcomes. It's not luck that they continue to dominate our division.
  25. CubinNY
    At the risk of turning this into something it shouldn't here are some axioms 1. We live in a cause and effect universe 2. Behavior is a dynamic property that is frequently changing and subject to multiple variables 3. Reality is never wrong 4. All mathematical modes are subject to measurement error. The errors can be large or small. When the model deviates from reality, the model has errors. See #3. What some call luck/variance is an attribute or explanation not based on a model. It's also called an explanatory fiction. ---------------- The fact that the Cubs underperformed or some team overperformed their Pythagorean record doesn't mean they got lucky/negative-positive variance. It means the model isn't perfect and other unidentified factors may have contributed to the deviation. It doesn't mean the model is useless either.
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