CubinNY

I know you wrote Carlos would disagree, I was merely replying after seeing a few posts that questioned Hoops for writing what he wrote. It appeared to me that many thought he was nuts for thinking some GM's would think what he wrote they might think, and I happen to agree with his theory. That was me. I still think the notion is ridiculous. I'll eat my hat if the deal as proposed goes through

Perception is probably reality on this one B to B! Regardless of what the numbers and sabermetrics may actually show, there is surely a perception among GMs around the league that from July through October Jose Contreras was the best pitcher in baseball. With all due respect Hoops, The GMs around the league are, for the most part, not stupid. July -Oct. is hardly the way to measure a pitcher. Especially one with Contreras's track record. And then Jermanie Dye? He has been washed up for for a while.

If this deal comes to fruition I will write a check for $50 to the GOP

Absofreakinglutly What is Williams doing, giving other GMs a date rape drug and then taking pictures?

I don't like this WBC but I have to admit I am fired up for baseball. I will watch

These gas guzzlers are coming out just in time for the highest gas prices ever. Detroit should've done this 10 years ago.

I can say Maddux's control is still there because the walk total is the same and he still gets a healthy number of strikeouts his way. By the way, the HR total is too high (as I already stated), but I don't attribute it all to loss of control - umps have taken back some of the generous zone he had in the 90's and the division has been/is full of sluggers and small/hitters ball parks. And ERA is the least of the critical pitching stats that matter. There isn't statistical evidence to support the claim that Williams is better unless you predict Williams growth and Maddux decline. Maddux has been steady at his declined value from career norms for three years now. It suddenly won't just fall apart. So Williams will have to get significantly better, particularly with regards to k/walk ratio. I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put money on it. You win, I don't know where to begin.

I think that sources prediction was a bit unrealistic, expecting improvement out of a pitcher Maddux's age. But he's going to have a better year if only because he'll be given a spot all year long, while Williams will have to unfairly battle with Rusch for time. The key for Maddux is to keep that HR total down. The control is still there, but that HR total doubled from career norms in the 2003-2005 timespan. [edit - I mean doubled per year, not doubled the career total] BTW - Didn't the Bill James endorsed pitching prediction give Maddux a similar 2006 line? I wouldn't get too excited about any PECOTA predictions on pitching. They are not accurate, historically. They have very little predictive validity, a correlation of about .4 which is very weak. I don't know how you can say Maddux still has the control when he gave up taters like he did last year. He gave up the home run because he was missing his spots but his pitch stayed in the hitting zone and got thwacked, especially up in the zone. If Williams is given consistent starts I expect he will have a better ERA then Maddux.

Conspicuously absent is talk of Zambrano's contract. I hope that is a good sign that they are close to terms

15 Two weeks and a day!

I'm not UK but I will take a crack on my theory. Scouting is a talent that is very difficult to teach, it is more of an art then a science. Some people are virtuosos and some people are one step below and so on on down the line. I think the Braves have some virtuoso scouts. I think they also probably have good player development. Bottom line, unless a team is planning to hire away the same scouts as the Braves they probably shouldn't rely on that formula. There is only one Yo Yo Ma or Motzart. And there is only one Schuerholz. I think the Braves have proved that they are the exception to the rule. For every Braves team there are teams like the Cubs, Mets, Reds, Royals, amd Tigers that try to copy the Braves.

Which myth is that Sully? Take your pick 1. Speed distracts the pitcher so he is not as effective 2. Speed distracts the catcher 3. You have to have speed at the top of the order 4. Small ball wins 5. "fundamentals" win related to 4. I don't think there is anything necessarily wrong with people holding those opinions. But when evidence is presented to the contrary and then people pick at the evidence or at the messenger or make mistatements about the what the messenger wrote, those are problems.

No that is not correct. I actually believe that is correct. This year, anyway, Blanco was set up to catch on Prior's starts. I don't know if they kept with it, but that was the plan, and I seem to remember that being more or less accurate (someone who actually knows where to find this out for sure, could you look this up?). Plus, Barrett's numbers are significantly skewed because of catching Maddux all season long. If we got rid of Barrett, do you realize how truly terrible this lineup would be? I really think that's a bad idea. I stopped counting after getting to Blanco 19 Barrett 4 in Prior starts. It started pretty even, but after the injury went clearly in Blanco's favor. Maybe Prior did whine about Barrett then. Maybe my memory is off but I thought Barrett caught the majority of all the pitchers in 05. If my memory is off, I appologize for being wrong. But my point still stands.

No that is not correct. I actually believe that is correct. This year, anyway, Blanco was set up to catch on Prior's starts. I don't know if they kept with it, but that was the plan, and I seem to remember that being more or less accurate (someone who actually knows where to find this out for sure, could you look this up?). Plus, Barrett's numbers are significantly skewed because of catching Maddux all season long. If we got rid of Barrett, do you realize how truly terrible this lineup would be? I really think that's a bad idea. I am not advocating that at all. I think the Cubs should keep Barrett, at least for now. I think Hendry's, "I like guys who can the ball" stuff is bs. Or at least schizophrenic as catcher is arguably where you would want to be the strongest in defense. Look at Barrett's passed ball and the # of wild pitches when he is behind the plate. They are patheticly bad. I guess my main point is in Hendry's lust for defense this off-season he forgot to upgrade the position on the filed where defense means the most, arguably. Again, I am for keeping Barrett but given Hendr's statements, he shouldn't be.

No that is not correct. Barrett is a terrible reciever of the ball. He hops around too much before the pitch, he sets up way too late a lot of the time, and has terrible footwork. He lunges for ball to his left and often releases the ball way too high when thowing down to second.

I wrote at the beginning of the off-season after the "I like guys who can catch the ball" press release that if that is true the Cubs should have gotten rid of Barrett. I don't want to get rid of barrett but hendry should have. He is a HUGE liability behind the plate. I am surprized that Prior wasn't whining about him too.

16

Nice analysis, but I think some of Maddux's more obscene numbers may be due to his advanced age. It seemed to me, and I could be wrong, that he left a lot of balls up in the zone last year. He also missed in the strike zone too (as did Prior). Overall, I think his numbers are pretty reflective of his actual performance. I hope for some rebound this year, but I am not optimistic. At this point he is a six inning pitcher. We just have to hope he keeps his ERA around 4.

17 days

Nothing saved baseball. It was only natural that people would be slow to come back, but as the cliché goes, time heals all wounds. People would have came back no matter what. Baseball is bigger than the idiots who run it.

I saw the new Dodge Charger Daytona R/T. Man, it looks nice. A real retro-muscle car. The dude driving it looked old enough to own one of the orignals. http://www.dodge.com/charger/

After year one of PECOTA, BP compared it to other prediction systems here. Correlation coefficients for OPS: .700-.711 Correlation coefficients for ERA: .479-.486 PECOTA performs better than most, but its certainly not ironclad. On the pitching side, no one's got a good prediction system. The Bill James Handbook took its first crack at pitcher projections this year, without the help of James who doesn't believe a good system can be made. .7 values are very good with that size of a population,

Does anyone have data on the accuracy of PECTOA projections over the last three years? What I am looking for are standard deviations or + or - percentages. I am interested in determining if these data are worthwhile or are just fun food for thought stuff. I bookmarked the ones from the baseball think factory for 2005 at the begininning of last season but when I returned the page wasn't there. Thanks in Advance

Bold denotes Lee and the players with less RBI than him Babe Ruth 1921, 119 XBH, 171 RBI Lou Gehrig 1927, 117 XBH, 175 RBI Barry Bonds 2001, 107 XBH, 137 RBI Chuck Klein 1930, 107 XBH, 170 RBI Todd Helton 2001, 105 XBH, 146 RBI Albert Belle 1995, 103 XBH, 126 RBI Hank Greenberg 1937, 103 XBH, 183 RBI Todd Helton 2000, 103 XBH, 147 RBI Chuck Klein 1932, 103 XBH, 137 RBI Stan Musial 1948, 103 XBH, 131 RBI Sammy Sosa 2001, 103 XBH, 160 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1922, 102 XBH, 152 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1932, 100 XBH, 169 RBI Lou Gehrig 1930, 100 XBH, 174 RBI Luis Gonzalez 2001, 100 XBH, 142 RBI Albert Belle 1998, 99 XBH, 152 RBI Carlos Delgado 2000, 99 XBH, 137 RBI Hank Greenberg 1940, 99 XBH, 150 RBI Derrek Lee 2005, 99 XBH, 107 RBI Albert Pujols 2004, 99 XBH, 123 RBI Babe Ruth 1920, 99 XBH, 137 RBI Babe Ruth 1923, 99 XBH, 131 RBI Larry Walker 1997, 99 XBH, 130 RBI Hank Greenberg 1935, 98 XBH, 170 RBI Juan Gonzalez 1998, 97 XBH, 157 RBI Joe Medwick 1937, 97 XBH, 154 RBI Babe Ruth 1927, 97 XBH, 164 RBI Hack Wilson 1930, 97 XBH, 191 RBI Joe DiMaggio 1937, 96 XBH, 167 RBI Hank Greenberg 1934, 96 XBH, 139 RBI Hal Trosky 1936, 96 XBH, 162 RBI Lou Gehrig 1934, 95 XBH, 165 RBI Joe Medwick 1936, 95 XBH, 138 RBI Albert Pujols 2003, 95 XBH, 124 RBI Lance Berkman 2001, 94 XBH, 126 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1933, 94 XBH, 163 RBI Babe Herman 1930, 94 XBH, 130 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1929, 94 XBH, 149 RBI Chuck Klein 1929, 94 XBH, 145 RBI Jim Bottomley 1928, 93 XBH, 136 RBI Ellis Burks 1996, 93 XBH, 128 RBI Lou Gehrig 1936, 93 XBH, 152 RBI Ken Griffey 1997, 93 XBH, 147 RBI Al Simmons 1930, 93 XBH, 165 RBI Hank Aaron 1959, 92 XBH, 123 RBI Brady Anderson 1996, 92 XBH, 110 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1938, 92 XBH, 175 RBI Lou Gehrig 1931, 92 XBH, 184 RBI Ken Griffey 1998, 92 XBH, 146 RBI Stan Musial 1953, 92 XBH, 113 RBI Frank Robinson 1962, 92 XBH, 136 RBI Babe Ruth 1924, 92 XBH, 121 RBI Alfonso Soriano 2002, 92 XBH, 102 RBI Mark McGwire 1998, 91 XBH, 147 RBI David Ortiz 2004, 91 XBH, 139 RBI Alex Rodriguez 1996, 91 XBH, 123 RBI Babe Ruth 1928, 91 XBH, 142 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1925, 90 XBH, 143 RBI Willie Mays 1962, 90 XBH, 141 RBI Stan Musial 1949, 90 XBH, 123 RBI Willie Stargell 1973, 90 XBH, 119 RBI Albert Belle 1996, 89 XBH, 148 RBI Andres Galarraga 1996, 89 XBH, 150 RBI Richard Hidalgo 2000, 89 XBH, 122 RBI Duke Snider 1954, 89 XBH, 130 RBI Sammy Sosa 1999, 89 XBH, 141 RBI Sammy Sosa 2000, 89 XBH, 138 RBI Hal Trosky 1934, 89 XBH, 142 RBI Garret Anderson 2002, 88 XBH, 123 RBI Barry Bonds 1993, 88 XBH, 123 RBI Barry Bonds 1998, 88 XBH, 122 RBI Joe DiMaggio 1936, 88 XBH, 125 RBI David Ortiz 2005, 88 XBH, 148 RBI Albert Pujols 2001, 88 XBH, 130 RBI Ripper Collins 1934, 87 XBH, 128 RBI Kiki Cuyler 1925, 87 XBH, 102 RBI Charlie Gehringer 1936, 87 XBH, 116 RBI Lou Gehrig 1928, 87 XBH, 142 RBI Jason Giambi 2001, 87 XBH, 120 RBI Shawn Green 1999, 87 XBH, 123 RBI Todd Helton 2003, 87 XBH, 117 RBI Chipper Jones 1999, 87 XBH, 110 RBI Willie Mays 1954, 87 XBH, 110 RBI Mark McGwire 1999, 87 XBH, 147 RBI Kevin Mitchell 1989, 87 XBH, 125 RBI Johnny Mize 1940, 87 XBH, 137 RBI Manny Ramirez 2004, 87 XBH, 130 RBI Alex Rodriguez 2001, 87 XBH, 135 RBI Tris Speaker 1923, 87 XBH, 130 RBI Mark Teixeira 2005, 87 XBH, 144 RBI Frank Thomas 2000, 87 XBH, 143 RBI Vernon Wells 2003, 87 XBH, 117 RBI Robin Yount 1982, 87 XBH, 114 RBI Jeff Bagwell 2001, 86 XBH, 130 RBI Ken Griffey 1993, 86 XBH, 109 RBI Reggie Jackson 1969, 86 XBH, 118 RBI Eddie Mathews 1953, 86 XBH, 135 RBI Don Mattingly 1985, 86 XBH, 145 RBI Don Mattingly 1986, 86 XBH, 113 RBI Hal McRae 1977, 86 XBH, 92 RBI Johnny Mize 1939, 86 XBH, 108 RBI Wally Moses 1937, 86 XBH, 86 RBI Stan Musial 1946, 86 XBH, 103 RBI Magglio Ordonez 2002, 86 XBH, 135 RBI Jim Rice 1978, 86 XBH, 139 RBI Alex Rodriguez 2002, 86 XBH, 142 RBI Babe Ruth 1930, 86 XBH, 153 RBI George Sisler 1920, 86 XBH, 122 RBI Sammy Sosa 1998, 86 XBH, 158 RBI Ted Williams 1939, 86 XBH, 145 RBI So, there have been 74 seasons in the history of the game in which a player has managed 88 or more extra base hits, and in only one of those seasons has a player accrued less RBIs than Derrek Lee did last year. And there's a good reason for that one player failing to do so: not only did Alfonso Soriano manage seven less XBHs than Lee, but he also spent the entire season batting leadoff! Good to see you around again.

18. We are counting down to number 1 here folks. Next up a long distance dedication for all the pet lovers out there. Stay tooned.