CubinNY
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Everything posted by CubinNY
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bet the over, lol.
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I get the angst, but let's wait and see what happens.
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There is a lot more that goes into trying to measure defensive value. A hit is easy to measure. With defense, you have to take into account where the ball was hit, where the guy was standing before the ball was hit, his ability to get to a baseball quickly and catch it, how quickly the ball is released once it is caught, how hard it is thrown, how accurate the throw is, and a bunch of stuff I'm probably missing. We can get a good indication and rank order of guys who are better and worse at those things by position using statistical analysis, even though the difference between them may be small and unimportant for several players and larger for others. But most of the time if a guy is not good based on the eye test, he's never going to be in the group of players for that position for which there is enough data to get useful analysis. The thing about statistics is that the numbers don't mean anything until they get large enough for predictive value. Then when they get super large, small and unimportant differences may be statistically significant but have little practical difference.
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The question is who is being more unreasonable? One would think these guys would have signed somewhere if they thought they were getting a fair deal. But it's hard to know what Boras is up to and we may only find out until this is all over if ever. We don't know how much the recent media stuff is leaked by the teams or by Boars. I keep coming back to the idea that Jed is mostly happy with the direction of the team right now. In theory, he will have a lot of money available at the trade deadline and even more next year.
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Descriptive statistics measure the real aspects of a population or the environment. Inferential statistics are models. The basis of the usefulness of each is dependent upon how close they approximate reality. I feel like we have this type of discussion multiple times a year. Reality is never not real. A statistical model's usefulness depends on how closely it matches reality. And when it does not match reality the reasons lie in measurement error due to the complexity of the system, not in some mystical metaphysical property of the universe.
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It's not the same. If I don't spend $5 on a coffee, that's real money in my pocket. I'm not saying it's not a potentially valuable tool, I'm saying it's not measuring a real thing other than catching or catching and throwing, the outcome of which may result in a team not scoring a run that otherwise would have scored. It's a shorthand way of talking about defensive value. It's not a shorthand way of talking about taking away a run the same way a CF jumps over the fence and robs a home run or a SS nails a guy from the outfield at home who is trying to score on a double.
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Doesn't that depend on an actual run scoring? So if a run scored, I'd assign 1 run. If a run didn't score, I'd assign 0.
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The metric used is a statistical model that does not equal actual runs. It's a hypothetical model to establish a defensive value measurement system. In other words, a "defensive run saved" is not a real run. It's a number that more or less may equate to reality. But it is not measuring runs, it's measuring some aspect of catching and/or catching and throwing a hit baseball.
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Each of them will have to play somewhere. Of the 4, I'd rather sign Montgomery. He best fits the Cubs needs.
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scoring runs and run prevention are also not the opposite thing. One is real the other is a hypothetical construct.
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I think you and Jed are on the same page. They think they are on the edge of a really good team for a long time. We shall see.
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lol. They are not competing. They were never planning on it. They are waiting patiently to see what happens and hope one of the remaining FA comes into their range (AAV/years). They are invested in the minor leagues this year and probably next year. Then they might compete if enough of the young talent makes it, but only to a certain financial point. They have a small market mentality and are proud of it. They know Wrigley will draw 2M no matter what they do.
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Outside of Morel, Canerio, Wisdom, and Suzuki (not counting Bellinger, he's not on the team), their entire team has roughly the same profile. They just traded for a guy who will be playing 1st/3rd who has the same profile. The top of their drafts are filled with guys with the same profile. They have a type.
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That’s the guy. More than Soto.
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Or really, just attack FA like he's failed to do thus far.
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both JD and Boog were given a multi-year contract in 2022. This could be the final year of the contract though.
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Probably the most accurate statement that will be made on this site for a while to come.
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I had no idea he was so young. I thought he was 23 last year.
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are you missing Jordan Walker or do you think he won't be starting?
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When does ST officially start? 2.14? I already have the key to the Cubs making the playoffs but I'm waiting until ST starts to give drop my vast uberanalytic knowledge on all of you peons. Awe hell, I just give it to you now.
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Tauchman is a mirage, but yes. I agree with Tim. The Happ extension was a huge misstep by Jed.
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Completely on Brand. How about Urias?
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
CubinNY replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Who was the top 10 pick who fell off the list and why? -
lol.
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This post is not about the Cubs but this seems to be the only really active thread about the offseason. I just read the Athletic article on the Dodgers getting Ohtani. Last year they won 100 games. So this offseason was not about winning the regular season. But I was gobsmacked at just how good their offseason is/was SP Ohtani (DH this year) Yamamoto Glasnow (with extension) RF Tescor Hernandez (lets Betts move to 2b) CF Manuel Margot RP James Paxton (could also start) Resign Joe Kelly I know winning the offseason doesn't matter, but got damn that is one helluva offseason with the talent they already have.
