CubinNY
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Everything posted by CubinNY
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In a clever attempt to jinx the situation, I"m thinking the Cubs would have signed Bellinger by now if they were seriously considering him.
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I hope Tallion comes into camp in the best shape of his life. Last year he was bloated. He did have a great spring though
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I don't think he needs to do that specifically, but they are going to be the worst team in the AL East. He was hired because he will likely follow the same path as Jed.
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Article: 2024 Prospect Previews: Will Sanders
CubinNY replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
didn't the Cubs have a guy named Cam Sanders? Are they the same person? -
Jed will likely have the job for as long as he wants it. He and the Ricketss are simpatico.
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are you nuts?
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It’s not as if other teams in the division have done nothing. We should put last year in the books. It’s over. Their record was how good they were. that said, other teams have not done much or are taking a step back. On the plus side, the kids are going to play. They have a manager who knows how to manage a bullpen. They have good youngish starting pitching, and if those guys take a step up, one of the better rotations top to bottom in the league. the questions for me are, how are they going to score enough runs consistently to win. And if the pitching staff can limit the long ball. They have the potential to give up a lot of HRs. I don’t know what to make of them, high floor, low ceiling, maybe until the trade deadline and then let’s see.
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Each team in the division is mediocre.
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Except they don’t benefit young players
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For me, Yamamoto was target 1-2-and 3. I could be Jed for the rest of the field. I do think the guy they got can be pretty good if he can minimize HRsz
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Jed + rebuilt the minor leagues and development team, draft team is better, 86ing Ross Jed - rigidity in signing FA, record at ML level, I think they have ownership that is taking profit after investing in Wrigley and dealing with COVID. I think ownership found their man to run the organization like they want it ran with their philosophy for sustainability. I don’t know that Jed is up to that task. The next few years will tell us.
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bet the over, lol.
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I get the angst, but let's wait and see what happens.
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There is a lot more that goes into trying to measure defensive value. A hit is easy to measure. With defense, you have to take into account where the ball was hit, where the guy was standing before the ball was hit, his ability to get to a baseball quickly and catch it, how quickly the ball is released once it is caught, how hard it is thrown, how accurate the throw is, and a bunch of stuff I'm probably missing. We can get a good indication and rank order of guys who are better and worse at those things by position using statistical analysis, even though the difference between them may be small and unimportant for several players and larger for others. But most of the time if a guy is not good based on the eye test, he's never going to be in the group of players for that position for which there is enough data to get useful analysis. The thing about statistics is that the numbers don't mean anything until they get large enough for predictive value. Then when they get super large, small and unimportant differences may be statistically significant but have little practical difference.
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The question is who is being more unreasonable? One would think these guys would have signed somewhere if they thought they were getting a fair deal. But it's hard to know what Boras is up to and we may only find out until this is all over if ever. We don't know how much the recent media stuff is leaked by the teams or by Boars. I keep coming back to the idea that Jed is mostly happy with the direction of the team right now. In theory, he will have a lot of money available at the trade deadline and even more next year.
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Descriptive statistics measure the real aspects of a population or the environment. Inferential statistics are models. The basis of the usefulness of each is dependent upon how close they approximate reality. I feel like we have this type of discussion multiple times a year. Reality is never not real. A statistical model's usefulness depends on how closely it matches reality. And when it does not match reality the reasons lie in measurement error due to the complexity of the system, not in some mystical metaphysical property of the universe.
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It's not the same. If I don't spend $5 on a coffee, that's real money in my pocket. I'm not saying it's not a potentially valuable tool, I'm saying it's not measuring a real thing other than catching or catching and throwing, the outcome of which may result in a team not scoring a run that otherwise would have scored. It's a shorthand way of talking about defensive value. It's not a shorthand way of talking about taking away a run the same way a CF jumps over the fence and robs a home run or a SS nails a guy from the outfield at home who is trying to score on a double.
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Doesn't that depend on an actual run scoring? So if a run scored, I'd assign 1 run. If a run didn't score, I'd assign 0.
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The metric used is a statistical model that does not equal actual runs. It's a hypothetical model to establish a defensive value measurement system. In other words, a "defensive run saved" is not a real run. It's a number that more or less may equate to reality. But it is not measuring runs, it's measuring some aspect of catching and/or catching and throwing a hit baseball.
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Each of them will have to play somewhere. Of the 4, I'd rather sign Montgomery. He best fits the Cubs needs.
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scoring runs and run prevention are also not the opposite thing. One is real the other is a hypothetical construct.
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I think you and Jed are on the same page. They think they are on the edge of a really good team for a long time. We shall see.
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lol. They are not competing. They were never planning on it. They are waiting patiently to see what happens and hope one of the remaining FA comes into their range (AAV/years). They are invested in the minor leagues this year and probably next year. Then they might compete if enough of the young talent makes it, but only to a certain financial point. They have a small market mentality and are proud of it. They know Wrigley will draw 2M no matter what they do.
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Outside of Morel, Canerio, Wisdom, and Suzuki (not counting Bellinger, he's not on the team), their entire team has roughly the same profile. They just traded for a guy who will be playing 1st/3rd who has the same profile. The top of their drafts are filled with guys with the same profile. They have a type.
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That’s the guy. More than Soto.
