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TruffleShuffle

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Everything posted by TruffleShuffle

  1. TruffleShuffle
    what makes middle relievers unreliable from year to year Lack of talent. Really I think it has a lot to do with discrete components. What I mean is that relivers work at most 1 or 2 innings per outing. Such a small performance sample is unduely influenced by luck, both bad and good. I don't think so. In terms of ERA it is, but for looking at the rate at which a pitcher gets people out. OBP against, stuff like that. I think it's more that there aren't a lot of consistently good middle relievers, and teams too often jump at the flash in the pan or the guy in his early to mid 30s who's right about to go downhill.
  2. TruffleShuffle
    fixed
  3. TruffleShuffle
    until he does this for longer than, say, 5 games
  4. TruffleShuffle
    what makes middle relievers unreliable from year to year, but closers, batters and starters are?
  5. TruffleShuffle
    What about Thursday? Depends... it should be dry by the afternoon except for maybe a leftover snow shower or flurry, but temps will be right around 40 and with the wind, it'll feel like upper 20s. Not a nice day for baseball, and I guess it's possible that the game could get called b/c of cold, but there will be a chance to play Thursday afternoon if they choose to. Wednesday - not so much. What about Friday? I might be going to that game. dry, kinda cold but not terrible. I think my parents are going to that game. In other news, I have tickets to the Red Sox game on Patriots' Day, and no matter what computer model I look at, the forecast looks AWFUL. At best in the upper 30s, at worst in the lower 30s, and either a driving rainstorm or blizzard.
  6. TruffleShuffle
    Just for the sake of making a point, let's accept that Howry was a good signing. Just by random chance if you sign 10 expensive FA relievers you are bound to get one who is actually worth the money. The sticking point is that there is no reliable way to tell which is the one. You might have to sign 7 or 8 overpriced salary sumps before you get to the right guy. Look at all the pricy relievers Hendry has gambled on before hitting paydirt with Howry. Even if Howry was the guy to get amongst the whole group, Hendry still would have been better off doing as Jocketty and not gambling on any expensive relievers. It's like drawing to an inside straight in poker. It's a fool's bet. You'll lose way more often than you win, but if you do it often enough, you will win at least once. Your "point" is only valid if this statistic is valid, which it probably isn't. Yeah, if you dump a lot of money on an aging pitcher or a flash in the pan, it's a stupid move. But if you sign a guy who's only going into his late 20s or early 30s, and has had three good years going into his free agent year, he's a pretty good bet to keep pitching well. And boy, I'm glad you're not the Cubs' GM. We'd have a salary about equal with the Pirates.
  7. TruffleShuffle
    What about Thursday? Depends... it should be dry by the afternoon except for maybe a leftover snow shower or flurry, but temps will be right around 40 and with the wind, it'll feel like upper 20s. Not a nice day for baseball, and I guess it's possible that the game could get called b/c of cold, but there will be a chance to play Thursday afternoon if they choose to. Wednesday - not so much.
  8. TruffleShuffle
    that's because jim tracy is either a complete idiot or had a brain fart.... the cards are lucky enough as is, they don't need other managers handing them victories
  9. TruffleShuffle
    okay i'm at work now and even though i'm forecasting for europe tonight, i took a look at U.S. weather... models suggest temps in the upper 30s with a rain/snow mix, and about an inch of liquid during the day tomorrow. The game will probably just be cancelled ahead of time, rather than making people sit around for 3 hours of delay and then sending them home without a pitch being thrown.
  10. TruffleShuffle
    this game's over... no way the pirates win
  11. TruffleShuffle
    fixed Re-fixed. Captain Optimism here is happy to give the benefit of the doubt to choads like Miller and Marquis but not Prior? Amusing. I think the Cubs have three very solid starting pitchers and two question marks. I have serious doubts that they will be able to contend with these two jokers 2/5ths of the time. The question isn't whether Guzman will be better than either of these two guys this year, it's whether he'll do as good a job as either of these two guys, while developing himself for 2008. If it is likely that he will do as good a job (and I think he will), then the right move is to go with Guzman. I'm all for going with him if Miller is mediocre or downright bad... but he has to get about 4 starts to get a fair chance. I also think it's bad overall for the team if you can a guy for 1-2 bad starts. That sends a bad message and everybody will feel too much pressure to produce immediately, or else.
  12. TruffleShuffle
    okay, eric patterson's name just magically disappeared from the box score
  13. TruffleShuffle
    Scott Spiezio, of all people ](*,) ](*,)
  14. TruffleShuffle
    i'd do it too, but everyone has to agree on it... otherwise people will stop doing it and we'll get stuck
  15. TruffleShuffle
    wow this buys out his late arby years too... fantastic deal for the padres
  16. TruffleShuffle
    i'm not familiar with dolis... how's he rate as far as a prospect. i really have to get that BA handbook... i have the other 5 but have procrastinated this year
  17. TruffleShuffle
    rich hill was undrafted??? I just can't have fun with fantasy leagues if it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
  18. TruffleShuffle
    The only problem is it's not lake effect. There's a system moving into Chicago from the west. I don't think there are any big lakes to the west of Chicago. :wink: yeah the rain/snow tomorrow has nothing to do with the lake. Now if a whole storm veers in a different direction I'll admit that you're onto something, but if that happens it'll be the first time I've ever seen it.
  19. TruffleShuffle
    Wow-that surprises me. His strikeout numbers are high, but his 2.11 WHIP and 1.90 HR/9 percentage have me definitely wondering how an ERA under 5.50 could be reasonably expected last year. the walks were the problem. its something hes never done before. all through the minors he had shown good walk rates so eventually its more than likely going to go down. the main thing last year was a spiffy .381 BABIP. umm that just screams fluke. LD% was ridiculously high, though. He needs to control his pitches better within the strike zone too. um LD% is another VERY inconsistent statistics with little to no year to year correlation yeah i guess it's just a coincidence that good pitchers usually have low LD% and bad pitchers usually have high LD%. Guzman threw way to many pitchers in the middle of the plate last year. I don't think I was imagining that.
  20. TruffleShuffle
    if keisler's arm explodes after this game, you'll have a valid comparison.
  21. TruffleShuffle
    Wow-that surprises me. His strikeout numbers are high, but his 2.11 WHIP and 1.90 HR/9 percentage have me definitely wondering how an ERA under 5.50 could be reasonably expected last year. the walks were the problem. its something hes never done before. all through the minors he had shown good walk rates so eventually its more than likely going to go down. the main thing last year was a spiffy .381 BABIP. umm that just screams fluke. LD% was ridiculously high, though. He needs to control his pitches better within the strike zone too.
  22. TruffleShuffle
    Yes, but we're never going to get a pen of mostly homegrown kids as long as we keep drafting people with "teh awesome stuff" and hoping they develop control. Why? You can teach mechanics, increased control, etc. You can't teach 98 mph fastballs and unhittable breaking balls maybe someone can teach mechanics and increased control, but that someone doesn't work for the cubs Ask Rich Hill who helped him. good point. But seriously, it seems like Baseball America always loves the pitchers in the Cubs organization, but there's really not enough to show for how good they're supposed to be. BA tends to look at raw talent more than results, so in terms of physical ability, the Cubs are among the best at identifying it. Because of injuries and inability to throw strikes, the physical skills too frequently don't translate to success at the major league level. I blame coaching throughout the organization for this - both in not teaching proper mechanics, and in not emphasizing the importance of throwing strikes.
  23. TruffleShuffle
    nice job cubs
  24. TruffleShuffle
    seriously just delete or lock this game thread now, there's no way this game will be played tomorrow
  25. TruffleShuffle
    and oh yeah, of course carpenter and (soon) kip wells become great starters, while wade miller couldn't get a fastball past helen keller
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