B.J. Ryan to Blue Jays

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

It doesn't take a crystal ball to look at the numbers of Howry, Eyre, and Ryan, and come to the conclusion that Ryan is a safer bet to repeat his numbers from the past few seasons.

@ 2-3 times the cost.

FYI, Neither Ryan nor Wagner were ever options for the Cubs since the day the Cubs signed Dempster to an extension.

 

He's also several years younger and his numbers are much better, hence the higher cost. You're probably right on the second point, which shows a lack of imagination on Hendry's part.

Would you rather have Ryan @ 5 yrs. 47 mil or Dempster @ 3/ 15.5?

Both were in their 1st year as closers.

 

FYI, Ryan is 29 & Dempster is 28

 

To my knowledge, BJ Ryan has never had TJS.

[stitchface]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

[ZMovieman]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

It's like a nightmare test question from logic class...

[CuseCubFan69]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

If everyone were overpaying it may be but not all teams are overpaying as some may not get into the free agent market because of the high prices.

 

If everyone is buying a Toyota Prius for 32K and the sticker price is 30K does that mean that everyone is overpaying or just the people that are buying the Prius?

[stitchface]

I'm just not in the business of trying to predict what players will/won't do. I'm not going to praise or condemn these moves until we see some actual stats in Cubbie uniforms from these two.

 

=D>

 

That's sort of boring isn't it? What's the point of posting on this site if you won't predict, analyze, evaluate and offer opinions? I've never understood this idea at all.

[stitchface]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

That's different. I think you can only evaluate if someone is overpaying by evaluating opportunity cost. Does signing Eyre and Howry cost the Cubs the chance to sign a productive RF? Then maybe they are overpaying. Do the Cubs have in-house options that are cheaper and would allow them to sign a RF and SS if they went that route? etc etc

[CardsFanInChiTown]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

If everyone were overpaying it may be but not all teams are overpaying as some may not get into the free agent market because of the high prices.

 

If everyone is buying a Toyota Prius for 32K and the sticker price is 30K does that mean that everyone is overpaying or just the people that are buying the Prius?

 

Everyone pays when the market moves up. Teams may sit on the sidelines for awhile but in the end they will have to sign somebody sometime. There was a time when 1m was a lot of money to give a player, now that's chump change. Folks, we are seeing a strong uptick in the market.

[stitchface]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

If everyone were overpaying it may be but not all teams are overpaying as some may not get into the free agent market because of the high prices.

 

If everyone is buying a Toyota Prius for 32K and the sticker price is 30K does that mean that everyone is overpaying or just the people that are buying the Prius?

 

Everyone pays when the market moves up. Teams may sit on the sidelines for awhile but in the end they will have to sign somebody sometime. There was a time when 1m was a lot of money to give a player, now that's chump change. Folks, we are seeing a strong uptick in the market.

 

Sooner or later you don't have to overpay - you can still identify value and sign value.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

That's different. I think you can only evaluate if someone is overpaying by evaluating opportunity cost. Does signing Eyre and Howry cost the Cubs the chance to sign a productive RF? Then maybe they are overpaying. Do the Cubs have in-house options that are cheaper and would allow them to sign a RF and SS if they went that route? etc etc

 

Fair enough, however in light of Ryan's contract I don't think the Eyre and Howry deals look as bad.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

That is an insane contract for a reliever. If Toronto wanted to overpay, why didn't they overpay for a SP or a position player?

 

If everyone is overpaying. Therefore no one is overpaying.

 

 

Wow is this statement wrong. Overpaying is overpaying.

 

I think we are seeing a new market plain and simple. Therefore it's not overpaying.

 

If everyone were overpaying it may be but not all teams are overpaying as some may not get into the free agent market because of the high prices.

 

If everyone is buying a Toyota Prius for 32K and the sticker price is 30K does that mean that everyone is overpaying or just the people that are buying the Prius?

 

Everyone pays when the market moves up. Teams may sit on the sidelines for awhile but in the end they will have to sign somebody sometime. There was a time when 1m was a lot of money to give a player, now that's chump change. Folks, we are seeing a strong uptick in the market.

 

Sooner or later you don't have to overpay - you can still identify value and sign value.

 

I'm saying it might not be overpaying. Value is relative to the market.

[RynoRules]

It doesn't take a crystal ball to look at the numbers of Howry, Eyre, and Ryan, and come to the conclusion that Ryan is a safer bet to repeat his numbers from the past few seasons.

@ 2-3 times the cost.

FYI, Neither Ryan nor Wagner were ever options for the Cubs since the day the Cubs signed Dempster to an extension.

 

He's also several years younger and his numbers are much better, hence the higher cost. You're probably right on the second point, which shows a lack of imagination on Hendry's part.

Would you rather have Ryan @ 5 yrs. 47 mil or Dempster @ 3/ 15.5?

Both were in their 1st year as closers.

 

FYI, Ryan is 29 & Dempster is 28

 

To my knowledge, BJ Ryan has never had TJS.

 

I know what you are getting at; I think Wood is an exception in that regard. Look at Burnett. Hasn't he had TJS twice?

[stitchface]

I'm saying market value can be overpaying. eg Beltran. As much as you may love a player, sometimes you have to walk away from paying market value.

[RynoRules]

I'm just not in the business of trying to predict what players will/won't do. I'm not going to praise or condemn these moves until we see some actual stats in Cubbie uniforms from these two.

 

=D>

 

That's sort of boring isn't it? What's the point of posting on this site if you won't predict, analyze, evaluate and offer opinions? I've never understood this idea at all.

 

I offer opinions, I just don't think that my opinion is always right just b/c statistics support it. I am in this for the free exchange of ideas. Bullpens are a prime example: they are completely unpredictable, and thus subject to varying interpritations. However, some folks who are trashing the Eyre and Howry deals appear to be saying, "Look the stats say they will stink in 06'! End of story. There can be no argument." I don't agree.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

It doesn't take a crystal ball to look at the numbers of Howry, Eyre, and Ryan, and come to the conclusion that Ryan is a safer bet to repeat his numbers from the past few seasons.

@ 2-3 times the cost.

FYI, Neither Ryan nor Wagner were ever options for the Cubs since the day the Cubs signed Dempster to an extension.

 

He's also several years younger and his numbers are much better, hence the higher cost. You're probably right on the second point, which shows a lack of imagination on Hendry's part.

Would you rather have Ryan @ 5 yrs. 47 mil or Dempster @ 3/ 15.5?

Both were in their 1st year as closers.

 

FYI, Ryan is 29 & Dempster is 28

 

To my knowledge, BJ Ryan has never had TJS.

 

I know what you are getting at; I think Wood is an exception in that regard. Look at Burnett. Hasn't he had TJS twice?

 

I was just adding to the argument that BJ Ryan is justified in making 4M more per season than Dempster. He's a better pitcher with a more proven track record and doesn't have injury issues.

 

Yeah, I like Burnett's stuff, but 4-6 years at premium FA prices for a guy with injury concerns is ridiculous. If Toronto does give him 50M/5+ then I will blast Riccardi. The money isn't bad (it's free agency), but the years are unjustifiable, IMO.

[KingCubsFan]

I was just adding to the argument that BJ Ryan is justified in making 4M more per season than Dempster. He's a better pitcher with a more proven track record and doesn't have injury issues.

There's no way Ryan is justified in making 4m in Dempster. He's older, has closed for just as long as Dempster and, arguably, wasn't really that much better than Dempster when he did close. The Blue Jays are paying premium money for a guy who has had one year of success at the postion they are asking him to be one of the best in the business. If Ryan is worth 9.5 million, and 4m more than Dempster, than I think Gagne should be looking for 15-17 a year if he wants to earn his "value" over Ryan.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I was just adding to the argument that BJ Ryan is justified in making 4M more per season than Dempster. He's a better pitcher with a more proven track record and doesn't have injury issues.

There's no way Ryan is justified in making 4m in Dempster. He's older, has closed for just as long as Dempster and, arguably, wasn't really that much better than Dempster when he did close. The Blue Jays are paying premium money for a guy who has had one year of success at the postion they are asking him to be one of the best in the business. If Ryan is worth 9.5 million, and 4m more than Dempster, than I think Gagne should be looking for 15-17 a year if he wants to earn his "value" over Ryan.

 

He's older? Yeah, by about 18 months. BJ hasn't had TJS and has had more than a season as a successful RP.

 

Wasn't much better? How do you figure that? Save percentage? That's a function of a lot more than the pitcher. Dempster flat out got lucky several times this year. He'll probably regress to his true self next year, sorry to say.

 

Gagne also has injury concerns and isn't on the FA market right now, which would change the value of BJ Ryan. How can you just throw out all this info when evaluating what a player is worth? Injury concerns, pitching history, stats, and availability of comparable players on the market all factor into what a player is going to get.

[KingCubsFan]

He's older? Yeah, by about 18 months. BJ hasn't had TJS and has had more than a season as a successful RP.

 

Wasn't much better? How do you figure that? Save percentage? That's a function of a lot more than the pitcher. Dempster flat out got lucky several times this year. He'll probably regress to his true self next year, sorry to say.

 

Gagne also has injury concerns and isn't on the FA market right now, which would change the value of BJ Ryan. How can you just throw out all this info when evaluating what a player is worth? Injury concerns, pitching history, stats, and availability of comparable players on the market all factor into what a player is going to get.

I'd say 1.5 years is somewhat significant, especially given the contract length, although that's not what makes this contract absurd. True, BJ has had a few good seasons as a successful RP. But he's had 2 excellent seasons, and the other was just OK (think Scott Eyre with a few more K's). And when I say Ryan isn't that much better than Dempster, I am going to look at things like ERA and save percentage because, let's face it, that's what teams are going to judge player's value by. BJ Ryan is not getting 9 million per year just because of his stellar K/BB ratio, although that certainly helps his cause. He's getting this because he's relatively young, has great stuff, had a great year as closer last year, and the Blue Jays had to offer him more than the Yankees and Red Sox to pry him away. If we were operating on the Blue Jays payroll, and we gave someone this contract, I would imagine most of the people on this board would be up in arms over this deal. The fact is, most closers aren't worth that much, and I think it is wrong to throw that kind of a contract at a closer unless you can afford it like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs or someone like that. I just used Gagne as a comparison, because I think he is the best closer in baseball and much better than Ryan. Using the logic that Ryan was easily 4 million better than Dempster, I just threw that number out to illustrate how much I think the best player at the position should be getting if that's how we're measuring. Obviously, I know Gagne wouldn't get that much on the open market.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

He's older? Yeah, by about 18 months. BJ hasn't had TJS and has had more than a season as a successful RP.

 

Wasn't much better? How do you figure that? Save percentage? That's a function of a lot more than the pitcher. Dempster flat out got lucky several times this year. He'll probably regress to his true self next year, sorry to say.

 

Gagne also has injury concerns and isn't on the FA market right now, which would change the value of BJ Ryan. How can you just throw out all this info when evaluating what a player is worth? Injury concerns, pitching history, stats, and availability of comparable players on the market all factor into what a player is going to get.

I'd say 1.5 years is somewhat significant, especially given the contract length, although that's not what makes this contract absurd. True, BJ has had a few good seasons as a successful RP. But he's had 2 excellent seasons, and the other was just OK (think Scott Eyre with a few more K's). And when I say Ryan isn't that much better than Dempster, I am going to look at things like ERA and save percentage because, let's face it, that's what teams are going to judge player's value by. BJ Ryan is not getting 9 million per year just because of his stellar K/BB ratio, although that certainly helps his cause. He's getting this because he's relatively young, has great stuff, had a great year as closer last year, and the Blue Jays had to offer him more than the Yankees and Red Sox to pry him away. If we were operating on the Blue Jays payroll, and we gave someone this contract, I would imagine most of the people on this board would be up in arms over this deal. The fact is, most closers aren't worth that much, and I think it is wrong to throw that kind of a contract at a closer unless you can afford it like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs or someone like that. I just used Gagne as a comparison, because I think he is the best closer in baseball and much better than Ryan. Using the logic that Ryan was easily 4 million better than Dempster, I just threw that number out to illustrate how much I think the best player at the position should be getting if that's how we're measuring. Obviously, I know Gagne wouldn't get that much on the open market.

 

OMG. You didn't just compare Eyre to BJ Ryan. I'm not even going to bother debating this with you as you value completely the wrong stats. ERA and save percentage?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ryan's WHIP was similar to past years for Eyre in '03, but he also struck out 11+ batters per 9 innings, and had a .615 OPS against. He was very good that year.

[KingCubsFan]

OMG. You didn't just compare Eyre to BJ Ryan. I'm not even going to bother debating this with you as you value completely the wrong stats. ERA and save percentage?

Nope. Eyre's never been a closer, and I wasn't talking about last year. Look at Cpatterson's post, he knew what I was talking about. In 2003, batters hit .227 against Ryan with a .330 OBP. In 2004, batters hit .219 against Eyre with a .310 OBP. The differences, of course, were in their respective opponent's SLG and ERA. Ryan's was much lower than Eyre's, due most likely to his superior stuff along with some other factors. As for WHIP, Eyre's was 1.33 and Ryan's was 1.37. I'm not trying to say that Eyre is equal to Ryan, becaues I know Ryan is much better. I was just trying to say that, in his career, he has had 3 good years, 2 of which were stellar. The third, 2003, was not stellar. Eyre might not be the best comparison, but he was the first mediocre lefthander that came to mind. I'm sure I could find more.

[cjbucks]

OMG. You didn't just compare Eyre to BJ Ryan. I'm not even going to bother debating this with you as you value completely the wrong stats. ERA and save percentage?

Nope. Eyre's never been a closer, and I wasn't talking about last year. Look at Cpatterson's post, he knew what I was talking about. In 2003, batters hit .227 against Ryan with a .330 OBP. In 2004, batters hit .219 against Eyre with a .310 OBP. The differences, of course, were in their respective opponent's SLG and ERA. Ryan's was much lower than Eyre's, due most likely to his superior stuff along with some other factors. As for WHIP, Eyre's was 1.33 and Ryan's was 1.37. I'm not trying to say that Eyre is equal to Ryan, becaues I know Ryan is much better. I was just trying to say that, in his career, he has had 3 good years, 2 of which were stellar. The third, 2003, was not stellar. Eyre might not be the best comparison, but he was the first mediocre lefthander that came to mind. I'm sure I could find more.

 

Try Steve Kline, Chuck McElroy and Mike Stanton. Ryan has 42 career saves (exactly 10 less than Howry) works out to about 1.1 mil per lifetime save. Good deal for BJ!

[cjbucks]

Sorry double post.

[Jehrico]

Why? The Eyre and Howry deals are still garbage. Look at how each pitcher's numbers have trended (i posted a link a few posts back). Eyre and Howry are both pretty good bets to have awful years in the next 3 seasons (howry less so) and Ryan is a good bet to put up numbers at or better than 2005 for 4-5 years.

 

Giving 7.7M/year to two relievers with significant medical history is ok, but giving 9.4M/year to a healthy dominant relief pitcher is insane?

 

Both Eyre and Ryan received little over 300% raises over their last year's salaries. Howry received little over a 200% raise. All three of these guys are making comparitively the same amounts percentage wise over their previous season's market value (well, BJ Ryan received less than market value as he avoided arbitration but was still underpaid).

 

Not to mention the BJ Ryan signing makes Batista expendable (who makes 4.75M next year). Who did Eyre and Howry push off the team? Guys making the league minimum.

 

I want your crystal ball. You're basically guaranteeing that Howry/Eyre will suck in the near future while Ryan will absolutely improve on his stats. The Cubs should hire you right away with such unbelievable skills of prognostication

 

It's no mystery. Look at the up and down natures of Howry/Eyre over their careers and the short term improvement they've experienced at an older age. What's your projection for the future? Yeah, they'll both put up 2005 numbers for the life of their contracts.

 

Look at how the blankety blanking numbers trend for Pete's sake (i gave a link earlier in the thread). This is a fundamental concept in business/science/engineering. Please have some evidence to support your POV instead of blind opinion while calling my opinion looking in a "crystal ball" when I have given justification for my stance.

 

I don't have anything to support Howry, but Eyre's stats have consistently improved since he was diagnosed and treated for ADD. I think that's significant to make him a safer bet. Howry, on the other hand, I don't know...

[Illini Iceman]

It seems likely that Hendry saw that deals like this were on the horizon and that is the reason he moved quickly on Eyre and Howry at slightly higher money and years than most here anticipated.

 

It's more likely that Hendry help set the market by giving ridiculus money and years to two mediocre middle relievers.

 

There was a quote from one agent suggesting as much.

 

An agent said it? OMG it must be true!

 

So Hendry giving 3 year deals for $4M or less pressured the Jays into giving Ryan 5 years at over twice as much per year? If true, that seems like quite an exaggerated response. More likely is that the Mets flirting with Wagner is what pushed the Jays into that offer.