B.J. Ryan to Blue Jays

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

This is more proof that closers are grossly overvalued. It's insane to pay $9.4M for 5 seasons for a guy who will pitch maybe 70 innings, many of them against the bottom of the opposing order with a multi-run lead and nobody on base.

 

I'd like to see a study on that, b/c looking at how we struggled to find a "closer" last season, not just anyone can do it, although they enter the game with no inhereted runners most of the time with only 1 inning to pitch. Just how valuable are those wins? 10M per season?

[RynoRules]

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

 

 

 

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?

 

          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0

 

What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.

 

I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.

 

I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

 

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

 

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?

 

I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......

 

The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close.

 

Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7

 

Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6

 

OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc...

 

The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time.

 

Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry.

 

I'll tell you what they should do: don't overpay for the likes of Ryan, Koskie, and Vernon Wells such that you devote the lion's share of your proportionally small payroll to them. They should develop their young players and give them a chance (a la the A's) and then add the supporting pieces via trades and FAs. This approach requires patience, which the A's have had w/ Beane and the Twins have had with Terry Ryan, and thus they win.

 

This signing makes no sense for a team like the Jays. They are on the cusp of nothing. Closers can't help you unless you have something to close.

[stitchface]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

[RynoRules]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

[stitchface]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

 

That's one way to look at it, I was thinking that a lot of people love to ride wood for his injuries limiting his pitching time, yet would be fine paying a closer similar money (on an IP basis).

[stitchface]

I'll tell you two reasons I don't like the Eyre and Howry deals:

 

1. They aren't likely to repeat their 2005 numbers for the next three years.

 

2. Dusty is likely to limit their effectiveness by using them for one batter at a time.

[frostwyrm]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

 

That's one way to look at it, I was thinking that a lot of people love to ride wood for his injuries limiting his pitching time, yet would be fine paying a closer similar money (on an IP basis).

 

I wouldn't dream of paying any closer what Kerrey is making.

[RynoRules]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

 

That's one way to look at it, I was thinking that a lot of people love to ride wood for his injuries limiting his pitching time, yet would be fine paying a closer similar money (on an IP basis).

 

Well, for better or worse, the cost of closers and relievers has gone exponentially in recent years. I guess we'll all just have to deal.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

 

 

 

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?

 

          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0

 

What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.

 

I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.

 

I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

 

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

 

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?

 

I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......

 

The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close.

 

Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7

 

Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6

 

OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc...

 

The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time.

 

Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry.

 

I'll tell you what they should do: don't overpay for the likes of Ryan, Koskie, and Vernon Wells such that you devote the lion's share of your proportionally small payroll to them. They should develop their young players and give them a chance (a la the A's) and then add the supporting pieces via trades and FAs. This approach requires patience, which the A's have had w/ Beane and the Twins have had with Terry Ryan, and thus they win.

 

This signing makes no sense for a team like the Jays. They are on the cusp of nothing. Closers can't help you unless you have something to close.

 

They won 80 games in the AL East with Halladay only pitching 140 innings. Has Riccardi made mistakes? Of course. So has Beane. Neither is omnipotent. Both play the odds (you don't always win). However, when you play the odds, you need a sizable period of time for things to shake out. Riccardi hasn't had that, so I don't know why you're bagging on him. If the Jays add Burnett, their team is vastly improved from last year. Barring injury, I could see them at 90 wins next year. That's close enough if the Yankees or Boston stumbles. They need to acquire difference makers. That's why they are pursuing BJ Ryan and Burnett.

 

So how are the Jays supposed to close the gap with the BoSox and the Yankees? Go ahead. Take a stab. You're all criticisms and no solutions on this subject. Waiting for enough talent to reach the major league club at the same time is a high risk strategy, especially considering the time Riccardi has between his first draft and realizing the fruits of his labor. An impatient owner will can him before that can take full effect.

Edited November 26, 2005 by Meat&PotatoesMan

[RynoRules]

I'll tell you two reasons I don't like the Eyre and Howry deals:

 

1. They aren't likely to repeat their 2005 numbers for the next three years.

 

2. Dusty is likely to limit their effectiveness by using them for one batter at a time.

 

I could see that with Eyre; less so with Howry.

[RynoRules]

 

So how are the Jays supposed to close the gap with the BoSox and the Yankees? [b[Go ahead. Take a stab. You're all criticisms and no solutions on this subject[/b].

 

Wow. Take a pill, pal. I just posted my solution - follow the Oakland and Minni models.

 

But since I don't feel like arguing about this any longer, I'll drop it.

[stitchface]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

 

That's one way to look at it, I was thinking that a lot of people love to ride wood for his injuries limiting his pitching time, yet would be fine paying a closer similar money (on an IP basis).

 

Well, for better or worse, the cost of closers and relievers has gone exponentially in recent years. I guess we'll all just have to deal.

 

 

Easy to see why when you look at the yankees, angels, and white sox. what seems to be missed is that the angels and white sox largely produced their dominant pens with cheap young talent or re-worked cheap talent. The Cubs seem to miss the boat on giving their young pitchers a chance. Maybe Hendry and Dusty didn't watch KRod and Jenks. Its hard to believe with as many live arms as the cubs have drafted in the last ten years they haven't produced a single effective reliever. So I have to ask, are they not there or are they not getting the chance? I tend to think the latter - particularly after watching how dusty and baylor before him, have handled wuertz, wellemeyer, farnsworth, etc etc.

[RynoRules]

Welly is the guy I have the most regrets about. His stuff and "makeup" screamed closer to me.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

 

So how are the Jays supposed to close the gap with the BoSox and the Yankees? [b[Go ahead. Take a stab. You're all criticisms and no solutions on this subject[/b].

 

Wow. Take a pill, pal. I just posted my solution - follow the Oakland and Minni models.

 

But since I don't feel like arguing about this any longer, I'll drop it.

 

whatever. don't bother whining about my criticisms of Hendry if you're going to have weak arguments for bashing another team's GM.

[CubfaninCA]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

Oooh, good question. The scuttle-butt on this bd. has often been "why are we paying so much money to a middle reliever?"

 

Darn good question. Wish I had an answer.

 

That's one way to look at it, I was thinking that a lot of people love to ride wood for his injuries limiting his pitching time, yet would be fine paying a closer similar money (on an IP basis).

 

Well, for better or worse, the cost of closers and relievers has gone exponentially in recent years. I guess we'll all just have to deal.

 

 

Easy to see why when you look at the yankees, angels, and white sox. what seems to be missed is that the angels and white sox largely produced their dominant pens with cheap young talent or re-worked cheap talent. The Cubs seem to miss the boat on giving their young pitchers a chance. Maybe Hendry and Dusty didn't watch KRod and Jenks. Its hard to believe with as many live arms as the cubs have drafted in the last ten years they haven't produced a single effective reliever. So I have to ask, are they not there or are they not getting the chance? I tend to think the latter - particularly after watching how dusty and baylor before him, have handled wuertz, wellemeyer, farnsworth, etc etc.

 

The Cubs suck @ drafting and developing talent. Not many relievers from the organization move on to other org's and do well.

[stitchface]

Nor are they much good at identifying free agent relievers.

[YearofDaCubs]

Welly is the guy I have the most regrets about. His stuff and "makeup" screamed closer to me.

Yeah. It really is a shame. He has the talent to be dominant and he just cant put it together.

[CubfaninCA]

Nor are they much good at identifying free agent relievers.

 

Hawkins, Rojas, Alfonseca, etc. were good before becoming Cubs. If you gripe every time the Cubs sign a reliever via free agency, you're bound to be correct 95% of the time. It's a snake bitten organization.

[imb]

Nor are they much good at identifying free agent relievers.

 

Hawkins, Rojas, Alfonseca, etc. were good before becoming Cubs. If you gripe every time the Cubs sign a reliever via free agency, you're bound to be correct 95% of the time. It's a snake bitten organization.

 

lol how was alfonseca "good"?

[mhuber92211]

Welly is the guy I have the most regrets about. His stuff and "makeup" screamed closer to me.

Yeah. It really is a shame. He has the talent to be dominant and he just cant put it together.

 

Err... Is this the same Welly we are talking about that walks nearly a batter an inning? He needs a return to the fundamentals to regain his control.

[YearofDaCubs]

Welly is the guy I have the most regrets about. His stuff and "makeup" screamed closer to me.

Yeah. It really is a shame. He has the talent to be dominant and he just cant put it together.

 

Err... Is this the same Welly we are talking about that walks nearly a batter an inning? He needs a return to the fundamentals to regain his control.

Yes that same welly. That's exactly what his problem is, his control. That's what I meant about not ebing able to put it together.

[CubfaninCA]

Nor are they much good at identifying free agent relievers.

 

Hawkins, Rojas, Alfonseca, etc. were good before becoming Cubs. If you gripe every time the Cubs sign a reliever via free agency, you're bound to be correct 95% of the time. It's a snake bitten organization.

 

lol how was alfonseca "good"?

 

How long you been following baseball?? Since 2002?? Alf had a good stretch from 99-01. Then he became a Cub.

[Mark_R]

Raise your hand if you would be disappointed if wood threw 100 innings and posted Ryan's numbers?

 

I'd be greatly disappointed. 200 innings should be the minimum for the kind of money Kerry is getting.

 

Unless of course you're assuming he's in the pen, which I'd still be disappointed in since we're not getting the best value for our dollar.

[imb]

Nor are they much good at identifying free agent relievers.

 

Hawkins, Rojas, Alfonseca, etc. were good before becoming Cubs. If you gripe every time the Cubs sign a reliever via free agency, you're bound to be correct 95% of the time. It's a snake bitten organization.

 

lol how was alfonseca "good"?

 

How long you been following baseball?? Since 2002?? Alf had a good stretch from 99-01. Then he became a Cub.

 

Alf had exactly two decent seasons before coming to the cubs (99 and 01), and one of those (99) was flukey. (his 2000 season, that you included in your list of good seasons, was awful) He's not good, he's never been good, he's like the majority of relievers in baseball, incredibly inconsistant. Maybe it's you should take up watching baseball.

[fearthecubs]

I do not believe that - I guess they are out of the Burnett race. My God.

 

Well, I guess they had to pay more b/c it is Toronto. I think they had $30M to spend this offseason. Giles and Burnett are still possibilities.

 

It's only $9.4M per year. :lol: The years is what surprised me, although he is a very good pitcher. I'd rather have him at 47M/5 than eyre and howry at a combined 23M/3 (7.67M/year), but that dream is gone.

 

You're insane and you owe me for trashing my support on Eyre and Howry's deals.