11/27 Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[goonys evil twin]

A few thoughts:

 

I can't help thinking that the '85 Bears would have had Simms running for his life by the second quarter.

 

 

Without question, while the comparison to the '85 defense is great a compliment I believe there's no comparison. It seems to me that this Bears defense gives up one or two big plays a game, in '85 that never happened, most especially during the last 6-8 games of the Regular Season and Playoffs. This tendency and the mistake prone Orton do not bode well for the Playoffs.

 

I think last year's Bears D was good, but gave up one or two big plays a game. But this year's D is much better, and has cut down on those big play mistakes. I wouldn't have had any faith in last year's team stopping TB at the end yesterday. This year's team has had their fair share of collapses at the wrong time, especially against Cleveland. But for the most part they've stepped up in the big spots. Although they still aren't as consistently great as the 85 team.

[EricG]

 G GS  Att Comp Pct  Yards  YPA Lg TD Int Tkld  20+ 40+ Rate 
6  6  156  85  54.5 1044  6.69 59 3   4  9/63  15   2  71.1  Grossman
11 11  292 159  54.5 1523  5.22 54 9  12 20/118 18   2  62.3  Orton

Pulled these stats off nfl.com. Not much difference in my book considering Orton was rushed into action as a rookie and Grossman was given time to observe and develop. Benching Orton might actually help his development as an NFL QB.

[goonys evil twin]

 G GS  Att Comp Pct  Yards  YPA Lg TD Int Tkld  20+ 40+ Rate 
6  6  156  85  54.5 1044  6.69 59 3   4  9/63  15   2  71.1  Grossman
11 11  292 159  54.5 1523  5.22 54 9  12 20/118 18   2  62.3  Orton

Pulled these stats off nfl.com. Not much difference in my book considering Orton was rushed into action as a rookie and Grossman was given time to observe and develop. Benching Orton might actually help his development as an NFL QB.

 

A couple differences. Orton has worked with a far better receiver than Grossman ever did in MM, as well as a finally emerging Gage (Rex's receiving corps was brutal). Kyle has also had a far more stable solid O line in front of him and a superior running game. Orton also has had the luxury of 11 straight starts to develop/improve/learn. Some might blame Grossman, in part, for his lack of consistent playing time, but there is nothing in the history of these two guys that would suggest Grossman would be a step down, or even the same as Orton. He will most likely be better. The question is how much better.

[Banedon]

...but there is nothing in the history of these two guys that would suggest Grossman would be a step down, or even the same as Orton. He will most likely be better. The question is how much better.

 

This is where you lose me in these discussions Goony. You show all these stats where Orton is so terrible, but you don't have any stats to back up the above statement. Grossman hasn't done anything any better than Orton so far in his career, and I just don't know how you can be so sure that he'll be better...

 

Please note that I'm not saying that he won't be better, I just don't know how you can say it with such certainty.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Stolen from another message board:

 

REX GROSSMAN

 

Rex game #1

3- 3 and outs

5- punts

1- drive over 50 yards

 

Rex game #2

2- 3 and outs

2- punts

6- drives over 50 yards

 

Rex game #3

Rex out early

 

Rex game #4

5- 3 and outs

7- punts

2- drives over 50yards

 

Rex game #5

2- 3 and outs

4- punts

3- drives over 50 yards

 

Rex game #6

2- 3 and outs

2- punts

4- drives over 50yards

 

 

KYLE ORTON

 

Orton game #1

3- 3 and outs

7- punts

0- drives over 50 yards

 

Orton game #2

1- 3 and outs

4- punts

1- drive over 50yards

 

Orton game #3

5- 3 and outs

6- punts

1- drive over 50yards

 

Orton game #4

3- 3 and outs

4- punts

1- drive over 50 yards

 

Orton game #5

3- 3 and outs

5- punts

1- drive over 50 yards

 

Orton game #6

5- 3 and outs

7- punts

3- drives over 50 yards

 

Orton game #7

 

6- 3 and outs

6- Punts

2- Drives over 50 yards

 

Orton game #8

 

6- 3 and outs

6- Punts

4- Drives over 50 yards

 

Orton game #9

 

3- 3 and outs

4- Punts

3- Drives over 50 yards

 

Orton game #10

 

4- 3 and outs

7- Punts

1- Drives over 50 yards

 

 

 

REX GROSSMAN

14- 3 and outs

20- punts

16- drives over 50 yards

 

KYLE ORTON Games #1-#5

15- 3 and outs

26- punts

4- drives over 50 yards

 

KYLE ORTON GAMES #6-#10

24- 3 and outs

30- punts

13- drives over 50 yards

 

REX GROSSMAN AVERAGE PER GAME

2.8- 3 and outs

4- punts

3.2- drives over 50 yards

 

KYLE ORTON AVERAGE PER GAME

3.9- 3 and outs

5.4- punts

1.7- drives over 50 yards

 

 

Keep in mind, Grossman had Shoop and Shea as his coordinators and he didn't have the weapons that Orton does this year.

[BigbadB]

Orton was horrible in Sunday's game. But, so was the play calling.

 

It seemed to me that they were running when they should have been passing and passing when they should have been running. The whole game seemed that way. Except for that fancy 1 yard drive, there wasn't much offense to speak of.

 

I was screaming for a pass down field early in the game and when I finally got one, I quit screaming for passes downfield. Wow, what a horrible pass that was.

 

If Orton can't complete passes downfield, this team is not going to win playoff games. If he can't complete passes downfield, they need to find someone who can.

 

A good team is going to expose the run/run/pass series of downs the Bears run almost exclusively. It's a good thing for the Bears that Tampa missed that easy field goal, because I'm not sure they were scoring again in that game.

 

The defense will eventually tire of trying to save the offense. Another great game by the defense. Very few defenses can stop Alstott from scoring at the 3 yard line.

 

Glad to see Bobby Wade NOT on the field in the 2nd half for punt returns.

 

The running game looks great, the offensive line seems pretty solid and the kicking game was good. We just need a quarterback that can spread out the defense better to make better use of the running game.

 

I know I'm being hard on the rookie, but come on. Throw a pass beyond the yard sticks a couple times a game, will ya?

[burnt out cubbie fan]

It's pretty hard to throw downfield when your QB is off the mark by 10 yards...

[barryfoote]

...but there is nothing in the history of these two guys that would suggest Grossman would be a step down, or even the same as Orton. He will most likely be better. The question is how much better.

 

This is where you lose me in these discussions Goony. You show all these stats where Orton is so terrible, but you don't have any stats to back up the above statement. Grossman hasn't done anything any better than Orton so far in his career, and I just don't know how you can be so sure that he'll be better...

 

Please note that I'm not saying that he won't be better, I just don't know how you can say it with such certainty.

 

Exactly, the only thing you can say for sure about Grossman is that he hasn't played more than three consecutive games in his entire career. The idea that Grossman, who has played in 0 regular season games this year and has played 0 regular season games under Ron Turner's offense can come in and play better than Orton after not seeing any live football action for over three months is wishful thinking.

 

I don't get the Orton hate, he is a rookie and rookies will be inconsistent. I think personally he is farther along in his development than what could be reasonably expected and I think that with time he can be very good. Does this means he's a good quarterback yet? No it doesn't, but he is light years ahead of Quinn, Krensel and Hutchinson. If you want to blame someone, blame Angelo for starting the season without a quality veteran backup quarterback.

 

Clearly, the Bears need better play from the quarterback position to be a factor in the playoffs. Hopefully Orton can progress to that point.

 

One last thing, it looked to me that on the Orton interception Justin Gage stopped running his route. This would explain why that pass seemed so off if Gage was supposed to continue downfield. I don't know for sure that was the case, but that was my initial impression of the play.

[Careless]

One last thing, it looked to me that on the Orton interception Justin Gage stopped running his route. This would explain why that pass seemed so off if Gage was supposed to continue downfield. I don't know for sure that was the case, but that was my initial impression of the play.

That's not what gage did. He started to cut in, saw that orton was throwing out, and went back out. It reduced his speed, but not by much. It still would have been badly overthrown, and only catchable by the dback

[goonys evil twin]

...but there is nothing in the history of these two guys that would suggest Grossman would be a step down, or even the same as Orton. He will most likely be better. The question is how much better.

 

This is where you lose me in these discussions Goony. You show all these stats where Orton is so terrible, but you don't have any stats to back up the above statement. Grossman hasn't done anything any better than Orton so far in his career, and I just don't know how you can be so sure that he'll be better...

 

Please note that I'm not saying that he won't be better, I just don't know how you can say it with such certainty.

 

This is not baseball. There are no clear-cut stats to prove who is more worthy. I didn't show any stats about Orton, so you're distaste for my theory cannot be based on lack of stats for Grossman.

 

This is my thinking on the situation:

 

Orton has been nothing short of pathetic, and he's getting worse. He throws about 2-3 good passes a game, then chucks up a bunch of crap the rest of the time, if he even throws at all. The offense is hurting the team's chances right now. If you want a chance at all to go all the way this season, you need more offense. Orton has regressed, and hasn't shown any signs that he will be able to provide more. The RB situation is set, the WR situation is set. There is nothing you can do to improve the offense aside from upgrading the QB position. Can we be 100% certain that Grossman will be a better QB? No. But a reasonable human being would have to think he at least has a chance to be better, while Orton clearly sucks.

 

Some ask, "why all the hate for Orton"? I say that question completely misses the point. I don't hate Orton. And I never loved Rex. I didn't even want to draft Rex, while I was 100% behind drafting Orton in the 4th round, it was an incredible value pick. I think in the long haul Orton may prove to be the better QB. Right now, however, Orton is a terrible pro QB. And this Bears team is in a position to win it all with just decent QB play. If this team was 4-7, I wouldn't beg for the change. Instead I'd just like to see both guys get some time, and then get ready for next year. I realize he's just a rookie and he's playing like a rookie. I don't blame him for that. Just like Neifi is a crappy SS and he's just playing like a crappy SS, so I don't blame him for that either.

 

Every QB has to go through a learning curve that combines some sitting, watching and learning, with playing. Orton has had a ton of playing, but he hasn't watched or learned a thing. This could serve him well next year, after a full summer of practice under Turner's system and in the pro game. It doesn't seem to be doing him or the team any good right now though.

 

Grossman was deemed the starter this summer. By all accounts he was taking to Turner's playbook well, and building a nice relationship with the receivers. Orton has the support of the players, but it's only a matter of time before those 10 yard overthrown passes start to piss off some guys, and a bad loss due to Orton's play could undermine a lot of the goodwill that's built up with the record. If you thought Grossman was good enough to start this summer, that means you had to think he was better than Orton. And that means you must have thought he was better than what Orton has shown so far, because Orton has not looked good at all. As long as Rex is healthy, and looking crisp in practice, it's mandatory that you go to him in the next couple weeks, unless Orton pulls something out of his butt and starts playing well.

 

Outside of the Jonathen Quinns of the world, you just can't be a worse NFL QB than Orton is right now. He's not managing games. He's getting his butt saved by the running game and defense on a repeated basis. If this defense was anything short of the best in the league, this team is no better than 6-5 and neck and neck with Minnesota. They'd probably be sub .500 if the defense was merely good, and not unbelievable. The only reason Kyle has the job still is because the defense is playing so well. That makes no sense to me.

 

Again, I don't like the stats comparison with baseball, where you can show clearly who is outproducing. Football is different. But sticking with Kyle now would be like sticking with a lineup that can't score any runs a game, simply because the pitching staff keeps throwing shutouts and scoring runs themselves. At some point you have to try other hitters, based solely on the fact that you can't get any worse than the worst.

 

Sticking with Orton because you are afraid Rex might somehow ruin the team's mojo is akin to playing not to lose. It is far more wise to always try and field your best lineup whenever possible. It would be almost impossible for Rex not to be better than Orton. He's had plenty of practice time. He's been in the league. He has played in several games. If your talent evaluators are any good, and if you're coaching staff had a brain, you've already determined he's better than Orton, and Orton has shown nothing to suggest he's better than advertised. I say you make the change before Kyle's poor play loses you games, and loses you the bye/homefield advantage. They aren't playing to outpace the Vikings right now, they should be playing to win every game in hopes of a Seahawks loss.

[brinoch]

I'm with goony on this one.

 

However, I don't think you go to Grossman until he's really healthy. I don't think he's there yet, and I don't think he'll be there until after the Green Bay game. Of course, I'm not a doctor, and I'm not one of the coaches, so I don't really know -- that's my deduction based on reports I've read.

 

I think the Bears won't need Grossman to defeat the Packers. More than likely, the defense will win this game all on its own. They have to be salivating at the prospect of Gado and Favre as unprotected as they seem to be. But Pittsburgh and Atlanta are another story, particularly Pittsburgh (I think Atlanta is less dangerous than Tampa, who I think is better than Carolina). The Steelers are a *good* team, with a very solid defense. I think they could easily hold the Bears offense to virtually nothing.

 

Frankly, with the O-line as solid as it is, a decent quarterback who can force defenses to respect the pass -- even a little -- would bring this offense to life. Defenses are reacting to the Bears' ability to run by stacking 8 men in the box, and they are getting away with it because Orton hasn't shown that he is worthy of their respect. With a decent QB, a defense that plays 8 men up against the run is going to suffer tremendously against a solid passing attack. Likewise, the running game gets knew life when a defense is forced to react and drop more men into coverage.

 

Granted, it's the Colts, but bear with me. Look at the effectiveness and apparent unstoppable momentum the Colts have on offense. Is that all Peyton Manning? Or does the ability of Edgerrin James factor in here, too? What about their o-line? Replace Manning with, say, Brees or Hasselback. Would the offense still be good? Yes, because they would still have balance and the ability to move the ball either passing or running. Certainly there would be a downgrade -- I'm not arguing that Manning is any less incredible than he is. He's simply awesome. The point is that a good, but not necessarily great quarterback will still move the ball effectively in that offense.

 

Now, look at the Bears offense. Look at that line. Look at Jones, Benson and Peterson. Look at MM, Gage, and Bradley (before the injury). And insert Brees or Hasselback. Grossman may not be Brees or Hasselback. But he could be, we don't know since he's been hurt so much. On the other hand, we *know* Orton isn't going to be that effective. We *know* that defenses don't respect his ability.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm with goony on this one.

 

However, I don't think you go to Grossman until he's really healthy. I don't think he's there yet, and I don't think he'll be there until after the Green Bay game.

 

I would wait as well, but I'd be prepared to make the move. If he's healthy, Rex should be the backup this weekend. And unless Kyle has a great game, a healthy Rex would then start against Pitt.

[Banedon]

I'm coming around a bit to the way you guys are thinking on this. I think part of my hesitancy is that frankly I haven't seen Grossman play. Having been in the great state of Idaho, we didn't have many Bears games televised there, and we didn't even get to see the preseason games much downstate, so I just don't have a grasp on how well the guy can play. I don't remember a lot of excitement with him when he was drafted, and I've never really thought he was exactly the "QB of the future", while I have gotten that vibe about Kyle from the coaching staff and the team (though admittedly, it could just be them saying the right things).

 

If Rex really does make this team better, I'm all for it. I'm not sure he'll be out there for the Pittsburgh game with the way the coaching staff is talking about their belief in Kyle and his performance though. I do suspect though that if that last game against the Vikings doesn't mean anything (we have HFA clinched because of tie-breakers or so have no chance at HFA because of tie-breakers), then perhaps we'll see them get him on the field then. In fact there'd be no reason not to.

 

NFL coaches have a tendency to take the "safe" route, and I think they view Kyle as the "safe" route here.

[goonys evil twin]

NFL coaches have a tendency to take the "safe" route, and I think they view Kyle as the "safe" route here.

 

I agree. I think it's more of a CYA route though.

 

I fear that the staff is looking for a really bad game by Kyle, a loss, or an injury to make their decision for them. That is how the Jauron regime would handle things. But this staff might be different. The way they handled the FS and FB situations makes me believe they are solely interested in putting the best player out there, and not all that concerned with potential backlash for making an "unnecessary change".

 

I cannot believe that with all the faith this regime (from the GM down to the QB coaches) placed in Rex, that they are impressed enough with Orton to have changed their minds.

 

With the bye on the line, homefield advantage in question, and even the playoff spot in jeopardy, I don't want to see this team wait for a loss to suddenly say it's okay to make a change. The team is winning, but Kyle is making it very hard. The players will understand such a move, even if you have them buying into the "just enough to win" mindset.

[biittner77]

NFL coaches have a tendency to take the "safe" route, and I think they view Kyle as the "safe" route here.

 

I agree. I think it's more of a CYA route though.

 

I fear that the staff is looking for a really bad game by Kyle, a loss, or an injury to make their decision for them. That is how the Jauron regime would handle things. But this staff might be different. The way they handled the FS and FB situations makes me believe they are solely interested in putting the best player out there, and not all that concerned with potential backlash for making an "unnecessary change".

 

I cannot believe that with all the faith this regime (from the GM down to the QB coaches) placed in Rex, that they are impressed enough with Orton to have changed their minds.

 

With the bye on the line, homefield advantage in question, and even the playoff spot in jeopardy, I don't want to see this team wait for a loss to suddenly say it's okay to make a change. The team is winning, but Kyle is making it very hard. The players will understand such a move, even if you have them buying into the "just enough to win" mindset.

 

What happens if the Bears bench Orton in favor of Grossman and the Bears lose? That's the scenario that the Bear's coaching staff fear most. Things could get really ugly if the very good defense starts pointing fingers at the lousy offense. There's an old saying among coaches "If you have 2 QBs you don't really have any". A QB controversy is OK in training camp but there's too much at stake this late in the season.

 

It's easier for us as fans to see that there is little risk to playing Grossman over Orton. It's pretty clear that the Bears aren't going to win any playoff games without better play from their QB so to us we'd rather roll the dice with Grossman. The coaches have a much different prespective. Even if they believed they have no chance with Orton they could never admit it publicly. So they are stuck with letting Orton play his way out of the starting lineup.

[goonys evil twin]

What happens if the Bears bench Orton in favor of Grossman and the Bears lose? That's the scenario that the Bear's coaching staff fear most.

 

So they are stuck with letting Orton play his way out of the starting lineup.

 

And that is exactly my point about CYA. It's a play not to lose mentality, and a terrible decision making process for a coaching staff. I'm just hoping this staff isn't so scared of having a decision backfire that they would rather make the wrong decision if it meant preventing criticism.

 

What happens if they lose with Grossman? Well odds are they would have lost whatever game it was with Orton anyway. And why would 1 loss with Grossman be all that bad? They've lost 3 with Orton, and 2 were against bad teams, the third being a blowout completely on the shoulders of Orton.

 

The bottom line is Orton isn't winning games, he isn't making it any easier to win games. The only reason this team is winning is because the defense is the best defense this league has seen in several years. Without that defense, this team stinks, which would make the decision easy. The only reason you stick with Orton is if you think luck is what brought you here, and that changing the QB will somehow change your luck.

[barryfoote]

One last thing, it looked to me that on the Orton interception Justin Gage stopped running his route. This would explain why that pass seemed so off if Gage was supposed to continue downfield. I don't know for sure that was the case, but that was my initial impression of the play.

That's not what gage did. He started to cut in, saw that orton was throwing out, and went back out. It reduced his speed, but not by much. It still would have been badly overthrown, and only catchable by the dback

 

Thanks for the clarification. It did seem there was miscommunication between the two on what route was being run.

[barryfoote]

Some ask, "why all the hate for Orton"? I say that question completely misses the point. I don't hate Orton. And I never loved Rex. I didn't even want to draft Rex, while I was 100% behind drafting Orton in the 4th round, it was an incredible value pick. I think in the long haul Orton may prove to be the better QB.

 

I didn't mean to imply you specifically in my 'Orton hate' comment. I was referring to some of what I am hearing on the sports talk radio shows. Basically I agree with your assessment about Orton. My concern is that Grossman has not shown (so far) that he is durable and my fear is that if he gets hurt again then you still will have Orton as your playoff quarterback (assuming the Bears make the playoffs) with less game experience. Also, if you rush Grossman back before he is completely healthy, the likelyhood of injury would be even greater.

 

I also think that it will take some time for Grossman to shake off the rust and I'm not sure that he would be much better that Orton until that happens.

 

I understand the frustration though, this team with a good quarterback would be scary.

[Jon]

Trib[/url]"]Tampa police arrested 10 people on Sunday outside Raymond James Stadium accusing them of operating a mobile strip club in the parking lot before the Bucs-Bears game. Undercover officers fumbled upon the business after noticing smiling young women in Buccaneers jerseys handing out fliers before Sunday's kickoff against the Bears. Police found several bouncers and dancers inside the jet-black, 40-foot-long 1987 motor home, which was being guarded by four men. Police found alcohol being sold inside and lap dances being conducted at $20 if the woman was topless and $40 if she was nude. Officers confiscated $2,000 and the arrests were made before kickoff. Regrettably for some Vikings, Tampa Bay played at Minnesota this year.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2005-11/20719503.jpg

[Banedon]

Fox Sports QB rankings.

 

Makes you think...where would we be if we'd gotten Kurt Warner during the off-season. Wasn't there some interest there from the Bears?

[biittner77]

What happens if the Bears bench Orton in favor of Grossman and the Bears lose? That's the scenario that the Bear's coaching staff fear most.

 

So they are stuck with letting Orton play his way out of the starting lineup.

 

And that is exactly my point about CYA. It's a play not to lose mentality, and a terrible decision making process for a coaching staff. I'm just hoping this staff isn't so scared of having a decision backfire that they would rather make the wrong decision if it meant preventing criticism.

 

What happens if they lose with Grossman? Well odds are they would have lost whatever game it was with Orton anyway. And why would 1 loss with Grossman be all that bad? They've lost 3 with Orton, and 2 were against bad teams, the third being a blowout completely on the shoulders of Orton.

 

The bottom line is Orton isn't winning games, he isn't making it any easier to win games. The only reason this team is winning is because the defense is the best defense this league has seen in several years. Without that defense, this team stinks, which would make the decision easy. The only reason you stick with Orton is if you think luck is what brought you here, and that changing the QB will somehow change your luck.

 

It's a play not to lose your job mentality. One way to keep a job in coaching professional sports is to keep the press off your back. Once Orton loses a game no one will 2nd guess the decision to go with Grossman. Until then the "If it ain't broke..." mentality wins out.

 

The real question is do the players have confidence in Orton? If they do then he has to keep playing. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing that. Presumably, Orton does have friends on the team that would be upset if he got benched. Unlike baseball, where team chemistry is grossly overrated, in football it is very important to keep everyone on the same page.

 

In short, I'd bench Orton but I understand why the Bears don't.

[biittner77]

What happens if the Bears bench Orton in favor of Grossman and the Bears lose? That's the scenario that the Bear's coaching staff fear most.

 

So they are stuck with letting Orton play his way out of the starting lineup.

 

And that is exactly my point about CYA. It's a play not to lose mentality, and a terrible decision making process for a coaching staff. I'm just hoping this staff isn't so scared of having a decision backfire that they would rather make the wrong decision if it meant preventing criticism.

 

What happens if they lose with Grossman? Well odds are they would have lost whatever game it was with Orton anyway. And why would 1 loss with Grossman be all that bad? They've lost 3 with Orton, and 2 were against bad teams, the third being a blowout completely on the shoulders of Orton.

 

The bottom line is Orton isn't winning games, he isn't making it any easier to win games. The only reason this team is winning is because the defense is the best defense this league has seen in several years. Without that defense, this team stinks, which would make the decision easy. The only reason you stick with Orton is if you think luck is what brought you here, and that changing the QB will somehow change your luck.

 

It's a play not to lose your job mentality. One way to keep a job in coaching professional sports is to keep the press off your back. Once Orton loses a game no one will 2nd guess the decision to go with Grossman. Until then the "If it ain't broke..." mentality wins out.

 

The real question is do the players have confidence in Orton? If they do then he has to keep playing. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing that. Presumably, Orton does have friends on the team that would be upset if he got benched. Unlike baseball, where team chemistry is grossly overrated, in football it is very important to keep everyone on the same page.

 

In short, I'd bench Orton but I understand why the Bears don't.