To Pie Or Not To Pie...

[1908]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better.

Abreu's been an All Star twice in nine seasons. Seems like a silly measuring stick to me.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better.

Abreu's been an All Star twice in nine seasons. Seems like a silly measuring stick to me.

 

Good point - how about finish in the top 3 in VORP for his position for at least 5 years?

[1908]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better.

Abreu's been an All Star twice in nine seasons. Seems like a silly measuring stick to me.

 

Good point - how about finish in the top 3 in VORP for his position for at least 5 years?

What's the point of your question? Does Pie have to turn into a HOF worthy player to make trading him a questionable idea?

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better.

Abreu's been an All Star twice in nine seasons. Seems like a silly measuring stick to me.

 

Good point - how about finish in the top 3 in VORP for his position for at least 5 years?

What's the point of your question? Does Pie have to turn into a HOF worthy player to make trading him a questionable idea?

 

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

[1908]

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

You don't win at baseball by trading away your stars. Whether or not Pie's a future star is up to Hendry and Co. to evaluate, and I do think they've done a pretty good job at evaluating who to trade and who not -- outside of Willis, of course.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

You don't win at baseball by trading away your stars. Whether or not Pie's a future star is up to Hendry and Co. to evaluate, and I do think they've done a pretty good job at evaluating who to trade and who not -- outside of Willis, of course.

 

And Sisco. I agree though, on balance one thing Oneira has been very good at is providing the boss with an objective assessment of the real ceiling for our prospects. In some cases he should have made the call earlier to get value for said prospect (Juan Cruz being the most egregious example), but at the same time, they got max value out of Hee Seop and Bobby Hill, so they've done pretty well overall.

 

With regard to current developments, you have to be careful in deciphering whether the Cubs REALLY think Hill and Pie are the real deal, so they will not listen to offers for them, or if they're simply blowing smoke to create trade value for them.

[1908]

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

You don't win at baseball by trading away your stars. Whether or not Pie's a future star is up to Hendry and Co. to evaluate, and I do think they've done a pretty good job at evaluating who to trade and who not -- outside of Willis, of course.

And Sisco.

They definately should've protected Andy on the 40-man in hindsight, but they didn't trade him away, and I have my doubts that he'll turn into a star.

[DivineBovine]

If Pie can get us a top caliber proven bat, then I'd trade him. He hasn't shown me he's a can't miss. All he really is now is a prospect with potential. And his K/BB ratio really does bother me. He could very easily be a flop, like so many other top tier Cub offensive prospects in recent years.

 

If the deal was right for Abreu, I'd do it and not think twice about it.

 

Don't forget Pie is 20 years old and expected to be playing regularly in the majors at 21. I don't know what you consider a "can't miss" prospect (or if there is such a player), but he's the closest this organization has had in a long, long time.

Yep, pretty much since Patterson was rated the #1 prospect in baseball. ;)

 

However, we have had a couple of pitchers come up since then that were pretty much "can't miss". For example, there was the kid named Prior...

 

thats exactly what makes the can't miss label so useless. if a player who is labeled can't miss like prior lives up to the hype while another cant miss like patterson doesn't (if he wasnt a can't miss why was he labeled the #1 prospect in baseball?), the label of can't miss seems to be a hindsight evaluation without much value.

 

Well, I understand that there's no such thing as a can't miss. But I'm not saying he'll flop either.

 

I just feel that he seems a bit overvalued sometimes here, but that's simply my opinion, nothing more.

 

It's also my opinion that if given the opportunity, the Cubs shouldn't hesitate to trade him to get a bona fide proven stud like Abreu.

[RynoRules]

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

You don't win at baseball by trading away your stars. Whether or not Pie's a future star is up to Hendry and Co. to evaluate, and I do think they've done a pretty good job at evaluating who to trade and who not -- outside of Willis, of course.

And Sisco.

They definately should've protected Andy on the 40-man in hindsight, but they didn't trade him away, and I have my doubts that he'll turn into a star.

 

I agree with what you are saying, but I think that you have to trade some of these guys in order to win, otherwise most of them will see their values go down. Sisco and Cruz are good examples. Sisco had a terrible year in 04' so we exposed him; we exposed Cruz for too long and got almost nothing in return.

[Backtobanks]

Just out of curiosity what do you guys think the odds of Pie becoming a 5x all-star type player? I understand this is a Cubs board but he seems a little overrated on NSBB to me.

I'd set the line at 18/1 that Pie becomes a 5 time all star or better.

Abreu's been an All Star twice in nine seasons. Seems like a silly measuring stick to me.

 

Good point - how about finish in the top 3 in VORP for his position for at least 5 years?

What's the point of your question? Does Pie have to turn into a HOF worthy player to make trading him a questionable idea?

 

It just seemed to me that most people on here were overrating Pie's chances to be a top tier play. I asked the question to confirm that belief.

 

I don't think the posters on NSBB are overrating Pie. All Hendry would have to do is float his name as trade bait and watch every executive in baseball come running. When people who have spent their whole lives evaluating players gush over a player like Pie, then I think we have a right to be excited about the possibility that he might be a superstar. Everyone knows that there are no guarantees, but his age, speed, ability, and attitude sure looks like the real thing to anyone who has watched him play.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

[RynoRules]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Uh-oh. :wink:

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Uh-oh. :wink:

 

it's true though. the cards have right handed pitching depth, but that's about it.

 

who needs a farm system when you can pull J. Rodriquez out of some unnamed orifice whenever you need to?

[RynoRules]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Uh-oh. :wink:

 

it's true though. the cards have right handed pitching depth, but that's about it.

 

who needs a farm system when you can pull J. Rodriquez out of some unnamed orifice whenever you need to?

 

Bingo. They've been luck as heck with that stuff for years. The best 3B in the NL goes down, they replace him with Nunez, who never had an OBP over .300 before this year, and he makes like Tony Gwynn. Ridiculous.

[UBlink]

Bingo. They've been luck as heck with that stuff for years. The best 3B in the NL goes down, they replace him with Nunez, who never had an OBP over .300 before this year, and he makes like Tony Gwynn. Ridiculous.

 

If you can do it consistently for years I don't think you can call it luck. I don't know what it is, but if it was luck it would even out over the years.

[CubsWin]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

True, but thats not saying much.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

[CubsWin]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I didn't think I was "tooting" the cards horn when I said their farm system is slim. I thought discussing Pit chances to be a different maker might shed some light on the issue.

[RockTheIvy]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I thought he was just trying to get a fair assessment of Felix Pie? Go easy man.

[CubsWin]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I didn't think I was "tooting" the cards horn when I said their farm system is slim. I thought discussing Pit chances to be a different maker might shed some light on the issue.

Nor did I. But then you started "tooting" about how Jocketty turns those few prospects into people like Mulder and Rolen. And that has nothing to do with the topic in this thread.

[CubsWin]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I thought he was just trying to get a fair assessment of Felix Pie? Go easy man.

Maybe earlier in this thread, but not in the post I quoted.

[UBlink]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I thought he was just trying to get a fair assessment of Felix Pie? Go easy man.

Maybe earlier in this thread, but not in the post I quoted.

 

It looked to me like a straightforward response to Vance's comment about the Cardinals system - it makes sense that a Cards fan would have a useful contribution on that comment.

[CubsWin]

I think Pie's potential to be a a top tier player is greater than any position player in the Cardinals system right now.

 

Yeah, our farm system is slim for sure. Not that i'm complaining but the Cards like to deal what little prospects they do have for established big league talent.

Why are you here and how are you contributing to this discussion about whether the Cubs could possibly acquire Bobby Abreu without giving up Felix Pie?

 

If you want to toot the Cardinals horn, please, go someplace else.

 

I thought he was just trying to get a fair assessment of Felix Pie? Go easy man.

Maybe earlier in this thread, but not in the post I quoted.

 

It looked to me like a straightforward response to Vance's comment about the Cardinals system - it makes sense that a Cards fan would have a useful contribution on that comment.

Hey, you know me, Ublink, I'm never one to shy away from admitting that I'm wrong. Your sig is testament to my position that we so often write stuff that we know very little about. So if that is the case, I apologize.

 

Where I came in to the discussion, his comment appeared to have nothing to do with Felix Pie. And thus, my response.

 

Getting back to the topic of the thread...

[CubsWin]

I am talking straight production.

 

And BTW, for those of you interested, guess who baseballreference.com says has the most similar stats to Abreu (in the history of baseball)...

 

What if he factored Abreu's contract into the equation? Would it still be proof of players gaining momentum?

 

With only 2 years on the deal, it's pretty difficult to justify knocking Abreu down the list of potential candidates. The one thing the Cubs have going in their favor is the money they have to spend. If Abreu was a free agent and was willing to sign for 2/30 right now, I'd be on that deal in a heartbeat, an that club option in 2008 also gives the team a chance to keep him for three years without risking a longterm deal in his late 30's.

 

I started this Abreu talk months ago, and I'm extremely happy that it's picked up some steam this offseason. From a baseball standpoint it doesn't make sense for Philly to trade him, but they are in a "we need to change what we're doing mode" and might just be willing to go in another direction by trading Abreu. There's not one prospect in the system that I'd refuse to deal for Abreu. And if you know my history of prospect love that means a lot.

Yeah, without a doubt, Abreu is the top choice to play RF for the Cubs next season. He has OBP, power, some base stealing ability, improved defense and a great arm. Plus he is left-handed with a history of remaining healthy throughout a season.

 

I still struggle with the question of whether I am willing to give up on Pie in order to get him. So I pose this question to you. Keeping in mind that the Phillies are trading him to dump salary, is there a deal you think the Phillies would accept that didn't include Pie, Pawelek, Murton, Cedeno, Lee, Ramirez, Prior or Zambrano?

 

Good, cheap, young pitching is always a plus. Jerome Williams, Will Ohman, Ryan Harvey and one of Marshall/Pinto/Hill? Some other combination?