Is Kenny Williams a genius or is this a fluke??

[CubfaninCA]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

[SpongeWorthy]

I think it's hard to say this is a fluke if you're using fluke to refer to their performance in the playoffs.

 

Did they catch a lot of breaks? Yeah, but what World Series caliber team doesn't? Did many players perform above what could have been reasonably expected? Absolutely, but what World Series caliber team doesn't have a few gems in the rough?

 

They've had outstanding pitching all year and the way the starters have performed can't be considered flukeish--remarkable, yes but not a fluke. 162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean and anyone can get hot at the right time in the playoffs (except the Padres, maybe).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's hard to say this is a fluke if you're using fluke to refer to their performance in the playoffs.

 

Did they catch a lot of breaks? Yeah, but what World Series caliber team doesn't? Did many players perform above what could have been reasonably expected? Absolutely, but what World Series caliber team doesn't have a few gems in the rough?

 

They've had outstanding pitching all year and the way the starters have performed can't be considered flukeish--remarkable, yes but not a fluke. 162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean and anyone can get hot at the right time in the playoffs (except the Padres, maybe).

 

Things don't always regress to the mean over 162 games. There's a reason the White Sox tanked hard at the end of the season, and that's because their pitching regressed to the mean. Fortunately for them, they had built up enough of a lead to make the playoffs, and once in the playoffs it's a crapshoot.

[SpongeWorthy]

I think it's hard to say this is a fluke if you're using fluke to refer to their performance in the playoffs.

 

Did they catch a lot of breaks? Yeah, but what World Series caliber team doesn't? Did many players perform above what could have been reasonably expected? Absolutely, but what World Series caliber team doesn't have a few gems in the rough?

 

They've had outstanding pitching all year and the way the starters have performed can't be considered flukeish--remarkable, yes but not a fluke. 162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean and anyone can get hot at the right time in the playoffs (except the Padres, maybe).

 

Things don't always regress to the mean over 162 games. There's a reason the White Sox tanked hard at the end of the season, and that's because their pitching regressed to the mean. Fortunately for them, they had built up enough of a lead to make the playoffs, and once in the playoffs it's a crapshoot.

 

I was mainly referring to the fact that they pitched well for most of the season and that throwing 4 outstanding performances in a row, while remarkable, isn't totally out of character.

 

Obviously they weren't 1.52 ERA good all year, but everyone knew for the Sox to have a chance the pitching would probably have to be lights out.

 

If the White Sox beat Boston/Anaheim by getting on base at an alarming clip, that would've been a fluke. This team simply played to their strengths.

[AAApittsburgh]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

I don't think it has anything to do with team chemistry or "playing their butts off". It's their pitching. And it definitely has nothing to do with Ozzie-ball or smallball like all White Sox fans and idiots on ESPN seem to think.

[CubfaninCA]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

I don't think it has anything to do with team chemistry or "playing their butts off". It's their pitching. And it definitely has nothing to do with Ozzie-ball or smallball like all White Sox fans and idiots on ESPN seem to think.

 

So they win despite Ozzie??

 

EDIT: I have to say that anyone who thinks chemistry and playing your butt off is irrelevant knows very little about sports. Even without Colon, the Angels have good pitching too.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

So they win despite Ozzie??

 

I've watched Ozzie during the year and I think he is terrible with the offensive moves however he's very good at handlng his pitching staff.

[AAApittsburgh]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

I don't think it has anything to do with team chemistry or "playing their butts off". It's their pitching. And it definitely has nothing to do with Ozzie-ball or smallball like all White Sox fans and idiots on ESPN seem to think.

 

So they win despite Ozzie??

 

EDIT: I have to say that anyone who thinks chemistry and playing your butt off is irrelevant knows very little about sports. Even without Colon, the Angels have good pitching too.

I don't think they win despite Ozzie, but I also don't think he's as good a manager as everyone seems to think. He makes his fair share of dumb decisions as does any manager.

 

I don't think chemistry is irrelevant, but it's not nearly as important in baseball as it is in other sports.

[Brian]

I think it's hard to say this is a fluke if you're using fluke to refer to their performance in the playoffs.

 

Did they catch a lot of breaks? Yeah, but what World Series caliber team doesn't? Did many players perform above what could have been reasonably expected? Absolutely, but what World Series caliber team doesn't have a few gems in the rough?

 

They've had outstanding pitching all year and the way the starters have performed can't be considered flukeish--remarkable, yes but not a fluke. 162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean and anyone can get hot at the right time in the playoffs (except the Padres, maybe).

 

Things don't always regress to the mean over 162 games. There's a reason the White Sox tanked hard at the end of the season, and that's because their pitching regressed to the mean. Fortunately for them, they had built up enough of a lead to make the playoffs, and once in the playoffs it's a crapshoot.

 

Is 4 consecutive complete game victories the mean ?????

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's hard to say this is a fluke if you're using fluke to refer to their performance in the playoffs.

 

Did they catch a lot of breaks? Yeah, but what World Series caliber team doesn't? Did many players perform above what could have been reasonably expected? Absolutely, but what World Series caliber team doesn't have a few gems in the rough?

 

They've had outstanding pitching all year and the way the starters have performed can't be considered flukeish--remarkable, yes but not a fluke. 162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean and anyone can get hot at the right time in the playoffs (except the Padres, maybe).

 

Things don't always regress to the mean over 162 games. There's a reason the White Sox tanked hard at the end of the season, and that's because their pitching regressed to the mean. Fortunately for them, they had built up enough of a lead to make the playoffs, and once in the playoffs it's a crapshoot.

 

Is 4 consecutive complete game victories the mean ?????

[ZMovieman]

So they win despite Ozzie??

 

I've watched Ozzie during the year and I think he is terrible with the offensive moves however he's very good at handlng his pitching staff.

 

Good at handling his pitching staff? As dominating as they were, letting the starters pitch all but 2/3 of an inning in 5 games is not smart management of a staff, especially when there is still plenty of baseball left.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

So they win despite Ozzie??

 

I've watched Ozzie during the year and I think he is terrible with the offensive moves however he's very good at handlng his pitching staff.

 

Good at handling his pitching staff? As dominating as they were, letting the starters pitch all but 2/3 of an inning in 5 games is not smart management of a staff, especially when there is still plenty of baseball left.

 

I meant through the reg season.

 

However I actually don't really disagree with his tactic, things change in the playoff and you have to go for it. Lets face it in tight playoff games you have to stick with what's working. The starters will have a few extra days rest now that they have clinched.

[YearofDaCubs]

I def do not think it is a fluke. Williams took the risk of getting rid of two of their top hitters and traded for Podz who is a good leadoff hitter, signed Dye to replace an injured Maggs and also picked up Pierzynski who has been excellent for them. His trades also brought in Contreras. No fluke at all. He took the risk and it paid off greatly. Hendry should write down some notes.

[imb]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

 

probably rests somewhere in between fluke and genius, much closer to fluke than genius.

 

i also love your term "on base percentage average", i've never heard of that one.

 

And whoever said that Podsednik is a good leadoff hitter probably needs to re-think what skill sets make a leadoff hitter a good one. Podsednik had a RC of 62. The exact same number as Neifi Perez.

[Diffusion]

162 games and things will tend to regress to the mean

 

Biggest lie in baseball.

[Backtobanks]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

 

probably rests somewhere in between fluke and genius, much closer to fluke than genius.

i also love your term "on base percentage average", i've never heard of that one.

 

And whoever said that Podsednik is a good leadoff hitter probably needs to re-think what skill sets make a leadoff hitter a good one. Podsednik had a RC of 62. The exact same number as Neifi Perez.

 

I agree that he rests somewhere between a fluke and genius. The Sox played great ball all year, but they did get "career years" out of 6 or 7 players. Also, they had a lot of luck and breaks throughout the year and the playoffs. Finally, let's not forget that the perennial division winners (Twins) had a horrible season and the next best team (Indians) were too inexperienced to win it at the end. Good teams take advantage of everything that happens and the White Sox did that this year.

[HoopsCubs]

I def do not think it is a fluke. Williams took the risk of getting rid of two of their top hitters and traded for Podz who is a good leadoff hitter, signed Dye to replace an injured Maggs and also picked up Pierzynski who has been excellent for them. His trades also brought in Contreras. No fluke at all. He took the risk and it paid off greatly. Hendry should write down some notes.

 

This is a great response. All GMs make great moves and dumb moves - it comes with the territory. Kenny Williams was brutal early on, but those Contreras and Garcia trades were really, really smart. And everyone figured Garland would wake up one of these days.

 

He made one move this last offseason, which really worked for this club. He changed formulas. Instead of the Konerko/Thomas/CLee/Magglio lineup, which got them nowhere for 5 years, he decided to go speed and pitching and defense. Everyone thought he was nuts when he traded Carlos Lee.

 

The lesson for Jim Hendry is clear. renew your team. Change things around. Some things just don't work - accept it and move on. If he follows that principle, we have most likely seen the last of Corey Patterson, Todd Walker, Neifi Perez, Jose Macias and Jeromy Burnitz on this team. If that principle holds up, he is serious about acquiring a #2 or 3 starting pitcher. If that principle holds up, he is serious about acquiring a quality lead-off bat and a power OF.

 

Even if the Sox win it all, I don't think Hendry is pressured by that. He will be pressured by trying to field a winner for his fans after his team was just 5 outs away from doing what the Sox did last night.

[RynoRules]

Wow - I never thought thepeople on thisbd. would be such sore losers.

 

Its been repeated ad nauseam here that winning in the playoffs requires your team to play very well and to have the ball bounce their way more often than not. And most importantly - you need over-the-top performances from your picthers.

 

The Sox are doing all of the above - they are playing great baseball right now, and clearly believe that no matter what happens, they will win. The ball "bounced" their way in Game 2. You have to give them credit and hope that this will inspire our unmotivated heros on the Northside.

[katway]

It seems every winner has their share of luck, but Williams really has done a terrific job. Lining up quality pitching with starters and relief pitchers is no easy task. He managed to get a diamond in the rough in Jenks for nothing, make timely trades like acquiring Contreras, and sign crafty veterans who set the tone like El Duque, Hermanson, etc. Managing to create a winning team on Reinsdorf's budget deserve applause and is surely more than dumb luck. He had a plan, stuck to it, and got results under budget... really can't ask for much more in a GM.

[Derwood]

Williams has brought in a deep starting rotation, but the offense is far from impressvie. The Cubs have a better obp average and they don't have a DH. Did anyone see this team being really good this year??

 

I have to tip my hat to Ozzie. This team defiinitely plays their butt's off and has chemistry.

 

probably rests somewhere in between fluke and genius, much closer to fluke than genius.

i also love your term "on base percentage average", i've never heard of that one.

 

And whoever said that Podsednik is a good leadoff hitter probably needs to re-think what skill sets make a leadoff hitter a good one. Podsednik had a RC of 62. The exact same number as Neifi Perez.

 

I agree that he rests somewhere between a fluke and genius. The Sox played great ball all year, but they did get "career years" out of 6 or 7 players. Also, they had a lot of luck and breaks throughout the year and the playoffs. Finally, let's not forget that the perennial division winners (Twins) had a horrible season and the next best team (Indians) were too inexperienced to win it at the end. Good teams take advantage of everything that happens and the White Sox did that this year.

 

but they won 99 games. I think it's more accurate to call the Cubs division title in '03 a "fluke" as they won just 87 and had bad seasons from St. Louis and Houston help them out.

 

And to say a playoff GM is somewhere between fluke and genius isn't saying anything. That description fits every GM who has ever fielded a playoff team. It's like saying Williams is somewhere between a 1 and a 10

[wolf stansson]

Kenny isn't a genius because I don't think there's a GM out there with a Mensa membership, but he put a good team together and got lucky with his staff. Other than Garcia and Beuherle there was just a bunch of talented guys who never put it together (Garland, Hermanson, Jenks, Contreras...). Add to that luck the good signing of Tad Iguchi and Ozzie's ability to get the best from his players and you have a good team. Plus Ozzie is a great post season manager. He keeps the guys loose and doesn't ever get the patented Tony La Russa "My sphincter is incredibly tight right now" playoff grimace.

[frostwyrm]

Williams only had a $75M payroll this year. Compare that to the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cubs. Let's give the man some credit.

[YearofDaCubs]

Btw, taking a chance on Jenks really helped especially considering Hermanson got hurt.

[Exile on Waveland]

If that principle holds up, he is serious about acquiring a #2 or 3 starting pitcher. If that principle holds up, he is serious about acquiring a quality lead-off bat and a power OF.

 

Those are things the Cubs need. They definitely need another quality starter. And, though some on the board may poo-poo it, a leadoff hitter would be nice -- though not necessary, especially since Walker could handle it. While OBP is the most important thing for a leadoff hitter, someone with OBP and speed (a lot to ask, I know) would help a lot, I think.

 

However, the power OF bat needs to a high-OBP type. That's the team's biggest weakness. And that's what I'm afraid Hendry won't see or address this offseason. I'm expecting the power OF bat to be of Preston Wilson's ilk. That won't cut it.

[Jehrico]

Wow - I never thought thepeople on thisbd. would be such sore losers.

 

Its been repeated ad nauseam here that winning in the playoffs requires your team to play very well and to have the ball bounce their way more often than not. And most importantly - you need over-the-top performances from your picthers.

 

The Sox are doing all of the above - they are playing great baseball right now, and clearly believe that no matter what happens, they will win. The ball "bounced" their way in Game 2. You have to give them credit and hope that this will inspire our unmotivated heros on the Northside.

 

I don't see how the supposition that they had a few career years and had some balls bounce their way makes anyone here a sore looser. I tend to stop posting and go into lurking mode when the board takes a turn for the worse when the defeatist pessimists flood the board. I hate those types of attitudes as much as anyone else, but from waht I've seen in this thread, I wouldn't call anyone a sore looser. KWilliams ineptness and futility has been well documented over the years, I'd say he's had worse years than Jim Frey when he was GM. Asking whether or not the team he put together is a fluke or not is a legitimate question. It's a quality team, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that KWill is a genius. He's had FAR more moves backfire on him than he's had pay off. This year, he had a bunch of moves that paid off at the same time. Rating the season from a GM perspective, I would call it a fluke. Rating the performance of the individuals or Ozzie himself, I wouldn't call what they did with the people they ended up with at the end of ST this year a fluke.