%Contribution to Poor Season As a Clue for Transactions

[HoopsCubs]

Another way to have the conversation on transactions is to do a detailed post mortem of the season - game by game, week by week, whatever suits you. What are the key factors that prevented this club from achieving the goal of reaching the post-season? One method of post mortem is to select 8 categories and than assign a percentage to each (adding up to 100). In theory, the money should flow to the highest % items.

 

So, take a swag at it. Here are 8 categories I quickly thought of (there are probably several more). Be honest and be critical. Don't just assign 12% to each and say we need to improve every area. Take a stand. Focus on 1 or 2 or 3 that really stand out as difference makers. We are 77-79 today because:

 

Unsettled Closer Situation first 6 weeks

Poor Bullpen (other than closer, i.e., setup men and specialists)

Low OBP

Bad Defense

Lack of Situational Hitting

Poor Managing/Strategy

Too Many Key Injuries

GM not properly filling obvious holes/needs

 

Some of these are inter-related, of course, but try it out.

 

 

Hoops

[Tim]

Hoops,

 

Interesting strategy, but I don't think it's that simple. For example, while the bullpen certainly hurt us at times this year, I think that the maturing of the guys who are there -- and better usage of them -- would improve that area without additional investment (though maybe not as shutdown as we would like it to be).

 

Also, I think if you're going to do this with categories, the categories have to be mutually exclusive. In other words, there should be no overlap between the categories. Low OBP was an obvious issue all year long, so should I assign my points to the low obp category or the GM not filling obvious holes/needs category? To use the geeky operations research terms, the options need to be exhaustive (covers the entire set of potential issues) and mutually exclusive (no overlap). I'm not sure how to set up categories like that, though.

 

However, I'd say the biggest issues that got us to where we are:

 

1.) Low OBP

2.) Low OBP

3.) Starting Pitching

4.) Bullpen

5.) Low OBP

 

Obviously, I'd put my efforts into improving the ability of the team to get on base this offseason. ;)

[biittner77]

Unsettled Closer Situation first 6 weeks 15%

This had a domino effect on the rest of the pen. Hawkins & Dempster could have been a deadly BP combo had Hawkins not shattered his confidence in the closer role.

 

Poor Bullpen (other than closer, i.e., setup men and specialists) 5%

They pitched well at times but were hopelessly misused. The Catch 22 of the Cubs pen under Baker: if you pitch well he'll send you back out there until you can't pitch well.

 

Low OBP 20%

Needs no further explanation

 

Bad Defense 5%

 

This aspect was overblown. The Cubs' pitchers should be able to overcome the defensive woes.

 

Lack of Situational Hitting 5%

 

Have to have good hitters/ get on base to start with. I saw a lot more sac flies and better execution in the games that I saw this year as opposed to last

 

Poor Managing/Strategy 15%

 

Nevermind the absurd lineups and the veteran bias. Baker's BP usage is horrible.

 

Too Many Key Injuries 10%

 

Every team has injuries but the Cubs created a ripple effect and exposed their lack of depth especially in terms of pitching.

 

 

GM not properly filling obvious holes/needs 25%

 

Hendry needed to start the season with a better option in LF. When the in house options failed he should have overpaid to fix the problem. Hendry also needed to add a better BP arm than Bartosh. Signing Burnitz was a mistake though not a terrible one.

 

I think I counted right. If not, players talk about giving 110% so that should apply to blame too! :D

[CubfaninCA]

The top 2 reasons the Cubs are 2 under are.....

 

1) Injuries. If they can stay somewhat healthy the lineup's quite good. Wood missing over 20 starts was an absolute killer and Prior not pitching @ 100% hurt as well.

 

2) Baker bizarre lineups. Hendry has to go out an get a #1 and #2 hitter. It's not a guarantee that Baker will use Walker properly, and Baker's choices of 1 and 2 hitters may have cost the Cubs 30-50 runs this year.

 

Altogether, the team needs a major shake-up.

[rawaction]

The top 2 reasons the Cubs are 2 under are.....

 

1) Injuries. If they can stay somewhat healthy the lineup's quite good. Wood missing over 20 starts was an absolute killer and Prior not pitching @ 100% hurt as well.

 

2) Baker bizarre lineups. Hendry has to go out an get a #1 and #2 hitter. It's not a guarantee that Baker will use Walker properly, and Baker's choices of 1 and 2 hitters may have cost the Cubs 30-50 runs this year.

 

Altogether, the team needs a major shake-up.

 

Lineups have nothing to do with whether the Cubs win or lose over the longhaul. Injuries hurt, but moreso than the actual injuries was the fact that the Cubs were counting on players that were injury risks.

[CubfaninCA]

The top 2 reasons the Cubs are 2 under are.....

 

1) Injuries. If they can stay somewhat healthy the lineup's quite good. Wood missing over 20 starts was an absolute killer and Prior not pitching @ 100% hurt as well.

 

2) Baker bizarre lineups. Hendry has to go out an get a #1 and #2 hitter. It's not a guarantee that Baker will use Walker properly, and Baker's choices of 1 and 2 hitters may have cost the Cubs 30-50 runs this year.

 

Altogether, the team needs a major shake-up.

 

Lineups have nothing to do with whether the Cubs win or lose over the longhaul. Injuries hurt, but moreso than the actual injuries was the fact that the Cubs were counting on players that were injury risks.

 

True about counting on injury prone players. However, Neifi batting 1st or 2nd was a killer, along w/ Corey's stint in leadoff. Didn't they go on an 8 game skid w/ those 2 at the top of the order??

[rawaction]

The top 2 reasons the Cubs are 2 under are.....

 

1) Injuries. If they can stay somewhat healthy the lineup's quite good. Wood missing over 20 starts was an absolute killer and Prior not pitching @ 100% hurt as well.

 

2) Baker bizarre lineups. Hendry has to go out an get a #1 and #2 hitter. It's not a guarantee that Baker will use Walker properly, and Baker's choices of 1 and 2 hitters may have cost the Cubs 30-50 runs this year.

 

Altogether, the team needs a major shake-up.

 

Lineups have nothing to do with whether the Cubs win or lose over the longhaul. Injuries hurt, but moreso than the actual injuries was the fact that the Cubs were counting on players that were injury risks.

 

True about counting on injury prone players. However, Neifi batting 1st or 2nd was a killer, along w/ Corey's stint in leadoff. Didn't they go on an 8 game skid w/ those 2 at the top of the order??

 

They haven't played any better with anyone else up there. Still over the course of a season, sure you take away RBI chances from Derrek Lee, but if Corey and Neifi are in the lineup, they have to bat somewhere. If they are 7th and 8th, you leave your 3-6 hitters on base just as much. When all is said and done, you're gonna be pretty close to the same amount of runs scored whether you have Corey/Neifi 1/2 or 7/8. The problem is not where bad hitters bat.....it's when they bat.

[TheDude]

Pitching Staff Walks 29%

Low OBP in 1-2 holes 26%

Lack of Situational Hitting 11%

Key Injuries 10%

Poor fundamental fielding/decisions 8%

Questionable Mangerial Decisions 7%

Bad Defensive Placement of Reserves 5%

Bad bench lineup 4%

 

 

The top two say it all for me. The Cubs pitching staff had one of the lowest BAA in all of baseball, and yet gave up a ton of walks (one of the worst in baseball).

 

You can't give away baserunners and win this game. Period. You can't let your 3 hole MVP candidate hit with nobody on base. Period.

[rawaction]

Walks all the way around. Pitching walked too many. Hitting didn't walk enough.

[Bull]

Unsettled Closer Situation first 6 weeks --10%

 

Poor Bullpen (other than closer, i.e., setup men and specialists) -- 10%

 

Low OBP -- 20%

 

Bad Defense -- 10%

 

Lack of Situational Hitting -- 5%

 

Poor Managing/Strategy -- 20% no doubt about it.

 

Too Many Key Injuries 20% -- Starting pitching was a problem because of injuries. Add to that Nomar, Walker, Ramirez...yeah.

 

GM not properly filling obvious holes/needs -- 15% This ties into the low OBP though.

 

I know that's 110%. These guys went above and beyond the expected 100% in suckiness.

[RyCubsFan]

Walks all the way around. Pitching walked too many. Hitting didn't walk enough.

 

I agree with you Raw.

 

The Cubs pitching staff led the league in strike outs, and ranked only behing Houston in hits allowed. Yet, the staff is in the middle of the pack in ERA. Why? Walks.

 

On the offensive side, the Cubs have the second highest team batting average in the league. They have hit more home runs and doubles than than any other team in the NL, save the Reds. Yet, they rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored? Why? Too few walks.

 

So my priorities in the offseason:

--Picking up players with high OBP (ehemm...Giles)

--Signing a bullpen pitcher or two that have excellent control

[USSoccer]

To be honest with you, I would say that the low OBP, poor managing and the GM failing to fill holes are far, far and away the three biggest factors. None of those other factors come close to approaching the level of the big 3 flaws in this team.

 

It goes in stages, though. Hendry let Sosa handcuff everything he did this offseason, and for some reason convinced himself that chemistry and health would carry us. That's 30% of the problem right there.

 

The result was that we were stuck half of our team with such horrendous OBP that it almost obviated the offensive production of Lee and Ramirez.

 

Next, the poor managing takes these problems and magnifies them. It's like trying to sprint on an already sprained ankle.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

1. Baker

2. Baker

3. Baker

4. Baker

5. did I mention Baker?

[Fred Hornkohl]

1. Baker

2. Baker

3. Baker

4. Baker

5. did I mention Baker?

 

Don't hold back, DKWG.... tell us how you really feel ! :wink:

[dalgreen]

Despite the bonehead decisions and non/decisions of our GM and manager, I still think those could've been overcome if Prior and Wood had been able to make at least 25 starts each. That's why I would say, in my opinion, injuries were 70% of the problem. Not to mention if Nomar could've even played in 120 games and Walker's six-week absence. But Prior and Wood being out killed us. I then go with:

 

GM/manager - 20%

low OBP - 10%

 

I am a strong proponent of OBP, but I also believe we had a low OBP last year. Yet if not for the last week collapse, we would've been in the playoffs. And weren't we relatively low in OBP in 2003? I think our success was built around our starting pitching, therefore, if that goes down then you're pretty much set to fail.

[Backtobanks]

Another way to have the conversation on transactions is to do a detailed post mortem of the season - game by game, week by week, whatever suits you. What are the key factors that prevented this club from achieving the goal of reaching the post-season? One method of post mortem is to select 8 categories and than assign a percentage to each (adding up to 100). In theory, the money should flow to the highest % items.

 

So, take a swag at it. Here are 8 categories I quickly thought of (there are probably several more). Be honest and be critical. Don't just assign 12% to each and say we need to improve every area. Take a stand. Focus on 1 or 2 or 3 that really stand out as difference makers. We are 77-79 today because:

 

Unsettled Closer Situation first 6 weeks

Poor Bullpen (other than closer, i.e., setup men and specialists)

Low OBP

Bad Defense

Lack of Situational Hitting

Poor Managing/Strategy

Too Many Key Injuries

GM not properly filling obvious holes/needs

 

Some of these are inter-related, of course, but try it out.

 

 

Hoops

 

Poor Managing/Strategy 25% - So many of the other categories are covered by Dusty's mistakes and stubborness.

 

Key Injuries 20% - Unfortunately, too many of these injuries were predictable (Nomar, Wood, etc.)

 

GM not filling holes/needs 10% - The bullpen, LF, and bench needed help from the beginning. I do believe that Hendry had some of the pieces needed but they were misused by Dusty.

 

Poor OBP 15% - especially in Dusty's choices for the top of the lineup.

 

Poor situational hitting 15% - I can't believe any other team comes up empty from bases loaded or second and third with no outs situations as often as the Cubs. Certainly no other team claiming to be a contender.

 

Bullpen Issues (closer and others) 10% - The reason this issue is rated so low is because much of the problem was caused by Dusty's decisions.

 

Poor Defense 5% - It could have been worse if Nomar was healthy all year.

[CubfaninCA]

Despite the bonehead decisions and non/decisions of our GM and manager, I still think those could've been overcome if Prior and Wood had been able to make at least 25 starts each. That's why I would say, in my opinion, injuries were 70% of the problem. Not to mention if Nomar could've even played in 120 games and Walker's six-week absence. But Prior and Wood being out killed us. I then go with:

 

GM/manager - 20%

low OBP - 10%

 

I am a strong proponent of OBP, but I also believe we had a low OBP last year. Yet if not for the last week collapse, we would've been in the playoffs. And weren't we relatively low in OBP in 2003? I think our success was built around our starting pitching, therefore, if that goes down then you're pretty much set to fail.

 

I think some forget how dominant Prior and Wood were.