Rob Nen article

[RockTheIvy]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=nen

 

Pretty good read.

[Outshined_One]

This article is a decidedly bizarre read.

 

On one hand, it is rather noble to see a guy go out there and sacrifice his very livelihood knowing quite well that he was hurting himself in the process. Granted, it didn't seem like anyone knew quite what was wrong with him until it was too late and things might have been different if they had known. But seeing a guy willing to go out there, throw his arm off, and basically put it all on the line is inspiring...in some ways.

 

On the other hand, he's an idiot and his coaches were tools for not seeing that he only had so many bullets in the gun, so to speak. If everyone knew Nen was in pain and they knew he was decreasing in effectiveness, why didn't Dusty limit Nen's appearances down the stretch? Why didn't Sabean make a run at one of the available relievers to take the stress off? Yeah, they were in the middle of a race, but if you make it to the playoffs, you need your guys healthy and ready to go. When it mattered, it bit them in the worst way because Nen pitched one game too many.

 

This is why Dusty and his band of merry men can't be trusted with pitchers. Nen is not a unique case in any way, shape or form. When it comes down to it, these guys want to go all out and win at all costs, even if it costs them their arms. They would pitch every day if they had the choice. It's the responsibility of the coaches and trainers to give these guys a break when they need it and to use them accordingly.

 

Dusty and his crew either willfully ignored Nen's problems or, worse, they didn't even notice it.

 

Considering what happened to Chad Fox, your guess is as good as mine.

[Tim]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

[YearofDaCubs]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

Come on now, the man deserves a 2 year extension....I cant stand Dusty.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Come on guys, this is getting insane.

 

#1 Kerry only pitched more than 130 pitches 1 game in 2003 and 2004. Plus there is no evidence to show # of pitches causing damage.

 

#2 Kerry Wood has been hurt in almost every year he has pitched, Dusty or not.

 

#3 Rob Nenn got hurt. These things happen in sports. You cannot tell me they knew how many "bullets" were left in his arm. Last I checked there is no test to see this.

 

#4 Dusty for the most part challenges his starters and they are use to higher pitch counts. I cannot think of many pitchers that have had injuries. BTW almost everyone has Tommy John now so I don't think it would be just Dusty that would have this issue.

 

If you don't like Dusty as a manager that is fine but to start drawing conclusions based on quazi-facts isn't right. Is Joe Torre an idiot because most of his starting staff has been hurt this year?

 

 

 

 

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

[USSoccer]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

 

The problem with using Wood in your argument is that many in the Chicago media see Wood as "soft" and stupid for not altering his mechanics. They see/hear Steve Stone torch Wood for throwing across his body, and assume that Wood's stubbornness, and not foolish overuse going back to Kerry's high school days, are the problem.

[USSoccer]

Come on guys, this is getting insane.

 

#1 Kerry only pitched more than 130 pitches 1 game in 2003 and 2004. Plus there is no evidence to show # of pitches causing damage.

 

#2 Kerry Wood has been hurt in almost every year he has pitched, Dusty or not.

 

#3 Rob Nenn got hurt. These things happen in sports. You cannot tell me they knew how many "bullets" were left in his arm. Last I checked there is no test to see this.

 

#4 Dusty for the most part challenges his starters and they are use to higher pitch counts. I cannot think of many pitchers that have had injuries. BTW almost everyone has Tommy John now so I don't think it would be just Dusty that would have this issue.

 

If you don't like Dusty as a manager that is fine but to start drawing conclusions based on quazi-facts isn't right. Is Joe Torre an idiot because most of his starting staff has been hurt this year?

 

 

 

 

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

 

FYI, pal, Wood in 2003 had 12 games where he was above 120 pitches. One of those was a 130 pitch outing and one was a 141 pitch outing against St Louis on May 10th. 141 pitches in May! He threw 3545 pitches in total in 2003.

 

In 2004, he was hurt half the year (perhaps because everyone from his HS coach to Riggs to Baylor to Baker decided to let him throw as many pitches as necessary), but still managed to rack up 2222 pitches in a shortened season, including 5 over 120.

 

But yeah, quasi stats...

[USSoccer]

BTW, here's the line from the May 10th game:

 

DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA

May. 10 STL W 3-2 7.0 4 1 1 1 3 8 7 6 141 29 70 - - 2.77

 

 

Also, Wood was hurt in 1998 for 1 month, missed 99 and part of 2000/2001, but pitched all of 2002 and 2003. So he hasn't been hurt "every" year he's been a pitcher.

 

Second, if you look at his game logs, you'll see how his effectiveness tanks after too many high PC games in a row.

 

here's the link for you:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/gamelog?statsId=5982&year=2003

[Tim]

BTW, here's the line from the May 10th game:

 

DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA

May. 10 STL W 3-2 7.0 4 1 1 1 3 8 7 6 141 29 70 - - 2.77

 

 

Also, Wood was hurt in 1998 for 1 month, missed 99 and part of 2000/2001, but pitched all of 2002 and 2003. So he hasn't been hurt "every" year he's been a pitcher.

 

Second, if you look at his game logs, you'll see how his effectiveness tanks after too many high PC games in a row.

 

here's the link for you:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/gamelog?statsId=5982&year=2003

Somewhere on the site is the full study I did back in 2003 that got quoted in Will Carroll's book on pitcher usage.

 

Wood was pretty bad in starts following "high stress" outings.

[USSoccer]

BTW, here's the line from the May 10th game:

 

DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA

May. 10 STL W 3-2 7.0 4 1 1 1 3 8 7 6 141 29 70 - - 2.77

 

 

Also, Wood was hurt in 1998 for 1 month, missed 99 and part of 2000/2001, but pitched all of 2002 and 2003. So he hasn't been hurt "every" year he's been a pitcher.

 

Second, if you look at his game logs, you'll see how his effectiveness tanks after too many high PC games in a row.

 

here's the link for you:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/gamelog?statsId=5982&year=2003

Somewhere on the site is the full study I did back in 2003 that got quoted in Will Carroll's book on pitcher usage.

 

Wood was pretty bad in starts following "high stress" outings.

 

I remember that, and I thought it was dead on. For the life of me I don't know why the Cubs would allow their 3 cornerstone pitchers to so consistently throw so many pitches, especially early in the season. It's not like this data is hard to come by.

 

I'd be curious to know how Prior and Zambrano perform after high pitch outings. IIRC Z threw 136 against the Phillies in May, and then left the next game after 3.1 innings.

 

BTW, Prior has somehow thrown 2730 picthes in a year where he missed a month and a half. Z has thrown 3448 pitches this season. God help Baker and Hendry if Z goes down.

Edited September 26, 2005 by USSoccer

[Mark_R]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

Too much emphasis is placed on pitch count. You have to take a pitcher to the limit to find out what that limit is.

 

As I was reading the Nen piece, I realized how much I truly despised Dusty Baker. Guess he found out how far Nen would go before he "broke."

 

This makes me so damn mad.

[Tim]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

Too much emphasis is placed on pitch count. You have to take a pitcher to the limit to find out what that limit is.

 

As I was reading the Nen piece, I realized how much I truly despised Dusty Baker. Guess he found out how far Nen would go before he "broke."

 

This makes me so damn mad.

Yeah, that quote from Dusty (he's said it more than once) inspired me to relate the story about my son after he got a box of flexible pencils. He was so excited by them and thought they were the coolest pencils he'd ever seen. But the curiosity just killed him and he had to figure out how far he could bend them before they broke. One by one, he bent each and every one of those cool pencils until he found the breaking point of each one. Of course, he ended up crying because all he had left was a floor littered with the shattered remains of broken pencils. But at least he know where they would break.

[Mark_R]

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

Too much emphasis is placed on pitch count. You have to take a pitcher to the limit to find out what that limit is.

 

As I was reading the Nen piece, I realized how much I truly despised Dusty Baker. Guess he found out how far Nen would go before he "broke."

 

This makes me so damn mad.

Yeah, that quote from Dusty (he's said it more than once) inspired me to relate the story about my son after he got a box of flexible pencils. He was so excited by them and thought they were the coolest pencils he'd ever seen. But the curiosity just killed him and he had to figure out how far he could bend them before they broke. One by one, he bent each and every one of those cool pencils until he found the breaking point of each one. Of course, he ended up crying because all he had left was a floor littered with the shattered remains of broken pencils. But at least he know where they would break.

 

I remember that story from the Convention thread and it is a perfect analogy to Dusty's use of pitchers. And its still going on. We don't know how far Carlos can go until we actually see him with arm problems or, god forbid, TJS with this ridiculous overuse of him.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

I stand corrected. There were 2 games over 130. I missed one. I never claimed over 120 just over 130. Quite a few pitches pitch over 120. It still does not make the point of Kerry Wood pitched over 130 pitches every game as was quoted. Even so, there has been no link with pitch count and injury-hence quasi-stats

 

 

Come on guys, this is getting insane.

 

#1 Kerry only pitched more than 130 pitches 1 game in 2003 and 2004. Plus there is no evidence to show # of pitches causing damage.

 

#2 Kerry Wood has been hurt in almost every year he has pitched, Dusty or not.

 

#3 Rob Nenn got hurt. These things happen in sports. You cannot tell me they knew how many "bullets" were left in his arm. Last I checked there is no test to see this.

 

#4 Dusty for the most part challenges his starters and they are use to higher pitch counts. I cannot think of many pitchers that have had injuries. BTW almost everyone has Tommy John now so I don't think it would be just Dusty that would have this issue.

 

If you don't like Dusty as a manager that is fine but to start drawing conclusions based on quazi-facts isn't right. Is Joe Torre an idiot because most of his starting staff has been hurt this year?

 

 

 

 

Not only did Dusty let Nen ruin his career in order to reap the benefits, the very next season he continually put Wood out there for extended outings even when it was obvious his effectiveness in subsequent games was hurt by it. When a pitcher has lingering effects from one long outing to his subsequent outings, it seems obvious that you stop running him out there for 130 pitches at a time.

 

But no...the team was in the playoff hunt and Dusty just couldn't back off using up a pitcher for the long-term good of the franchise. It's not a one time thing. It's a pattern with him that is going to continue as long as he manages. He learned nothing with Nen and I doubt he's learned with Wood.

 

The in-game strategy, the lineups and the difficulty in breaking in rookie position players are all good reasons for getting rid of Dusty, but in my opinion they are balanced by his strengths in getting older players to overperform. However, his willingness to trash a pitcher's career for the short term playoff chase (flags fly forever!!!!) is why he shouldn't manage in the big leagues again.

 

 

FYI, pal, Wood in 2003 had 12 games where he was above 120 pitches. One of those was a 130 pitch outing and one was a 141 pitch outing against St Louis on May 10th. 141 pitches in May! He threw 3545 pitches in total in 2003.

 

In 2004, he was hurt half the year (perhaps because everyone from his HS coach to Riggs to Baylor to Baker decided to let him throw as many pitches as necessary), but still managed to rack up 2222 pitches in a shortened season, including 5 over 120.

 

But yeah, quasi stats...

[goonys evil twin]

I stand corrected. There were 2 games over 130. I missed one. I never claimed over 120 just over 130. Quite a few pitches pitch over 120. It still does not make the point of Kerry Wood pitched over 130 pitches every game as was quoted. Even so, there has been no link with pitch count and injury-hence quasi-stats

 

Just because there isn't a hard and fast number you have to stick to doesn't mean you should ignore trends and avoid moderation. Dusty is an extreme abuser. Wood repeatedly suffered "off games" following high pitch count games. Common sense tells you that 120+ pitches repeatedly isn't good, and that you should pull a guy back when possible. Dusty never uses common sense in handling his pitchers, making excuses for that behavior isn't going to accomplish a thing. The bottom line is you can try and prevent injury, and "carry-over letdowns" by not routinely extending your guys, especially not the ones with a history of arm trouble. You can't prove a link, but you can't prove there is no link. A smart organization would play it safe and at least try to practice some level of caution. The Cubs ignore the possibility that there could be a link, instead deciding to search for the breaking point.

[mg420]

i say put wood in the pen where he can be more effective & prolong his career. he may just get to like it as dempster has. it would show what kind of team player he by how he handles it if they do.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Here is the data on 120 pitches or more in 2003. I would say he was on more than off after a long outing. 9 out of 13 Quality starts. No doubt he had some bad games after 120 pitches but they were few are far between and could be chalked up to the ebb and flow of a season.

 

# of Pitches Next Start Inn Next start Runs QS

124 8 1 Y

122 6 3 Y

124 6 1 Y

141 7 0 Y

121 5.1 5 N

120 6 5 N

126 3 7 N

129 9 0 Y

130 5 8 N

125 7 1 Y

122 6 1 Y

125 7 0 Y

122 7.1 2 Y Post Season

 

 

 

QS 9

Total Games 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I stand corrected. There were 2 games over 130. I missed one. I never claimed over 120 just over 130. Quite a few pitches pitch over 120. It still does not make the point of Kerry Wood pitched over 130 pitches every game as was quoted. Even so, there has been no link with pitch count and injury-hence quasi-stats

 

Just because there isn't a hard and fast number you have to stick to doesn't mean you should ignore trends and avoid moderation. Dusty is an extreme abuser. Wood repeatedly suffered "off games" following high pitch count games. Common sense tells you that 120+ pitches repeatedly isn't good, and that you should pull a guy back when possible. Dusty never uses common sense in handling his pitchers, making excuses for that behavior isn't going to accomplish a thing. The bottom line is you can try and prevent injury, and "carry-over letdowns" by not routinely extending your guys, especially not the ones with a history of arm trouble. You can't prove a link, but you can't prove there is no link. A smart organization would play it safe and at least try to practice some level of caution. The Cubs ignore the possibility that there could be a link, instead deciding to search for the breaking point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here is the data on 120 pitches or more in 2003. I would say he was on more than off after a long outing. 9 out of 13 Quality starts. No doubt he had some bad games after 120 pitches but they were few are far between and could be chalked up to the ebb and flow of a season.

 

# of Pitches Next Start Inn Next start Runs QS

124 8 1 Y

122 6 3 Y

124 6 1 Y

141 7 0 Y

121 5.1 5 N

120 6 5 N

126 3 7 N

129 9 0 Y

130 5 8 N

125 7 1 Y

122 6 1 Y

125 7 0 Y

122 7.1 2 Y Post Season

 

 

 

QS 9

Total Games 13

 

Or in other words:

 

When Wood is coming off 120+ pitch outings: 3.70 ERA

Otherwise: 2.85 ERA

[SanJoseCubsFan]

I think the Cubs have pulled back on Wood in 2004. He only had 3 starts of 120 pitches or more. Our pitches are very valuable to our success. I am not saying don't be careful but people have pitched for 100 years and injuries happen more because of bad genetics. Pitching is very stressful on the arm and something can snap for many reasons. If a pitcher is use to a high pitch count and 120 is not that high he should be able to pitch around that +-10 pitches most of the time. I am not saying pitch the guy 150 pitches every game. I think I showed in my last post that he didn't have many off games after a high pitch count. He had just as many off games after 70 pitches.

 

 

I stand corrected. There were 2 games over 130. I missed one. I never claimed over 120 just over 130. Quite a few pitches pitch over 120. It still does not make the point of Kerry Wood pitched over 130 pitches every game as was quoted. Even so, there has been no link with pitch count and injury-hence quasi-stats

 

Just because there isn't a hard and fast number you have to stick to doesn't mean you should ignore trends and avoid moderation. Dusty is an extreme abuser. Wood repeatedly suffered "off games" following high pitch count games. Common sense tells you that 120+ pitches repeatedly isn't good, and that you should pull a guy back when possible. Dusty never uses common sense in handling his pitchers, making excuses for that behavior isn't going to accomplish a thing. The bottom line is you can try and prevent injury, and "carry-over letdowns" by not routinely extending your guys, especially not the ones with a history of arm trouble. You can't prove a link, but you can't prove there is no link. A smart organization would play it safe and at least try to practice some level of caution. The Cubs ignore the possibility that there could be a link, instead deciding to search for the breaking point.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

Come on that is skewing the data. More times than not he had a great start not just a quality start. (he gave up 0 runs or 1 run in 60% of these starts) He gave up 7 runs two other times on 100 pitches. He had three terrible starts in that time frame that jacked up his era.

 

 

Here is the data on 120 pitches or more in 2003. I would say he was on more than off after a long outing. 9 out of 13 Quality starts. No doubt he had some bad games after 120 pitches but they were few are far between and could be chalked up to the ebb and flow of a season.

 

# of Pitches Next Start Inn Next start Runs QS

124 8 1 Y

122 6 3 Y

124 6 1 Y

141 7 0 Y

121 5.1 5 N

120 6 5 N

126 3 7 N

129 9 0 Y

130 5 8 N

125 7 1 Y

122 6 1 Y

125 7 0 Y

122 7.1 2 Y Post Season

 

 

 

QS 9

Total Games 13

 

Or in other words:

 

When Wood is coming off 120+ pitch outings: 3.70 ERA

Otherwise: 2.85 ERA

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Come on that is skewing the data. More times than not he had a great start not just a quality start. (he gave up 0 runs or 1 run in 60% of these starts) He gave up 7 runs two other times on 100 pitches. He had three terrible starts in that time frame that jacked up his era.

 

He had 4 disaster starts out of 13. He only had 3 disaster starts in his other 19 starts. There's a correlation here.

[SanJoseCubsFan]

I agree, Wood has disater starts 20-25% of the time on short rest or not. That is the norm for many pitchers. Never mind that 3 or those 4 starts after 120 pitches were against great hitting teams (Phi/Toronto/St Louis). Again, I am not saying don't be careful but to say there is a link of bad starts after 120 pitches is a stretch.

 

QS on 120 pitchs 65%

QS on less than 120 pitches 70%

 

 

There is not link there. If you include the playoffs it is a dead heat on good vs. disaster starts.

 

Come on that is skewing the data. More times than not he had a great start not just a quality start. (he gave up 0 runs or 1 run in 60% of these starts) He gave up 7 runs two other times on 100 pitches. He had three terrible starts in that time frame that jacked up his era.

 

He had 4 disaster starts out of 13. He only had 3 disaster starts in his other 19 starts. There's a correlation here.