Marte?

[abuck1220]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

i don't have his minor league splits, but i saw him make a handful of AAA starts, and i can tell you that righties didn't mash him in any of those games.

[Diffusion]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

So what, did your eyes see him throw either a changeup or a cutter?

[Tim]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

So what, did your eyes see him throw either a changeup or a cutter?

Z got by just fine with two pitches for quite a while.

[Diffusion]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

So what, did your eyes see him throw either a changeup or a cutter?

Z got by just fine with two pitches for quite a while.

 

Was one of them an at best league average fastball?

[Tim]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

So what, did your eyes see him throw either a changeup or a cutter?

Z got by just fine with two pitches for quite a while.

 

Was one of them an at best league average fastball?

No, but Hill's curve is also better than Z's slider was at that point.

[mg420]

imo it all comes down to location and pitch selection. no matter how overpowering a pitch is, it will get hit hard if it's not thrown to the right part of the plate. an average fastball (like maddux had in the 1990's 88-90mph) is very effective if it is spotted well and a good offspeed pitch is also used. if guys like rick rueschel and bob tewksberry can win 20 games with a fastball topping out at 85 and pinpoint control, a guy like hill can do fine throwing 88-92 with a filthy curve if he can hit his spots.

[Diffusion]

 

Numbers are great, and I love using them too, but they're the end result of processes. If the processes are bad, and you can often see that with your eyes, then the numbers will be too.

 

so what you've seen w/ your eyes over his 25 major league innings is more valuable than all the numbers he amassed in the minors? sorry, but i don't trust your eyes that much.

 

So what, did your eyes see him throw either a changeup or a cutter?

Z got by just fine with two pitches for quite a while.

 

Was one of them an at best league average fastball?

No, but Hill's curve is also better than Z's slider was at that point.

 

You're still talking one at best average pitch and one great pitch for Hill.

 

Shawn Estes has a great curveball. Look how far that got him.

 

You need at the absolute minimum one other pitch that's way above average if you're only going to throw two pitches, and if you can make sure that the two are completely unpickable out of the hand too that helps.

 

The absolute vast majority of starters need at least three pitches though. The difference between excellence and awfulness for a lot of pitchers is simply how much of a feel they have for a third pitch on any given night.

 

So how is Hill going to get by? He's got one pitch and his average fastball. He's got absolutely nothing that he's shown the confidence to throw in the major leagues to keep hitters off-balance, to stop them sitting on pitchers, to keep them honest. You fail to do that and you get pounded. It's not rocket science.

 

One great well located breaking ball can wrack up a ton of strikeouts in the minors, and that can be good enough. Not so in the majors.

[Diffusion]

imo it all comes down to location and pitch selection. no matter how overpowering a pitch is, it will get hit hard if it's not thrown to the right part of the plate. an average fastball (like maddux had in the 1990's 88-90mph) is very effective if it is spotted well and a good offspeed pitch is also used. if guys like rick rueschel and bob tewksberry can win 20 games with a fastball topping out at 85 and pinpoint control, a guy like hill can do fine throwing 88-92 with a filthy curve if he can hit his spots.

 

Except Maddux had a great changeup, cutter, slider, two fastballs, the lot. The key for Maddux was not just that he located all his stuff superbly, but that every pitch was literally a different speed, and it all moved. Control, movement, speed, all constantly varied.