Derrek Lee worth $100M??

[CuseCubFan69]

Lee is going to be a tough call for the Cubs. If he signs for a fair price I'd like to see him stay. Even if he falls to a 25/80/275 guy he still plays above average D and runs the bases well.

[DivineBovine]

I'd like to see what he does next year. This year is ridiculous, but its also ridiculously above his career numbers. I love Lee, but I don't like the idea of basing a long term deal on one aberrant year.

[sonofsamiam]

Based on this year, however, don't you think Lee's agent(s) will try to push for an extension before he hits any type of career statistical correction in 2006?

 

They certainly will. My point was that, even with a "statistical correction", he's a very, very good player. His '04 season was actually his worst since '01; it just doesn't look like it, due to ballpark effects.

 

Plus, I'm of the opinion that he's actually turned the corner, and isn't likely to regress TOO much. His approach at the plate is much better. His strikeouts are way down from previous, he's taking more walks again (though not as many as in '02-'03 -- stupid Cubs philosophy!), and, most important of all, he hasn't had a bad month, which always was a problem in the past. In fact, his worst OPS for a single month this year is July's 1.048.

 

Based on this, while I doubt he'll have another year as good as this, whatever adjustments he's made have helped both his pitch recognition and his consistency. Those things are likely to help him continue at a higher level than as in previous seasons to this one, IMO.

 

Lee may not regress back to his career norms, but I still have my doubts about him being a 1.000 OPS guy in coming years. With all the talent at 1B, it might be better served not to extend Derrek, and even capitalize on his inflated value by trading him. Also, and I'd expect you'd already know this, Derrek's had a great string of luck this year, BABIP-wise. Without his good fortune, Lee's OPS goes down a minimum of 60 points.

 

True, he has had good luck with BABIP. Then again, Pujols has too, and M. Cabrera has had even better luck.

 

You've probably heard of PROPS, which adjusts OPS based on batted ball type (in a way adjusting for the luck inherent in BABIP). Lee does lose a lot of OPS in this regard, but so do a lot of other people. In fact, even with this adjustment, Lee still leads the NL, and is 2nd in all of MLB, only to Manny Ramirez.

[10man]

Hendry doesn't do six year deals. He'll get 4 at the most.

[treebird]

props is in way too early a stage to be used conclusively, imo