Is 90 really the Magic Number?

[Derwood]

Many posters here in recent days have thrown around "90 wins" as the magic number to win the wildcard. This leads to much hand-wringing, as that would require the Cubs to go 30-9 the rest of the way.

 

First, here is how the standings would end up if everyone played at their current winning percentages the rest of the year:

 

PHI: 86-76 (20-18 the rest of the way)
HOU: 86-76 (21-18)
FLA: 85-77 (21-19)
WSH: 84-78 (20-19)
NYM: 84-78 (21-19)
MIL: 80-82 (19-19)
CHC: 79-83 (19-20)

 

So at the current rate, 86 wins would win the WC. Now let's see what teams would need to do to reach other win totals, and how many more wins they would need above their current winning % to attain it:

 

90 Wins:

CHC: 30-9 (+11)
PHI: 24-14 (+4) 
HOU: 25-14 (+4)
FLA: 26-14 (+5) 
WSH: 26-13 (+6)
NYM: 27-13 (+6)
MIL: 29-9 (+10)

88 Wins:

CHC: 28-11 (+9)
PHI: 22-16 (+2)
HOU: 23-16 (+2)
FLA: 24-16 (+3)
WSH: 24-15 (+4)
NYM: 25-15 (+4) 
MIL: 27-11 (+8)

 

So if anyone were to get to 90 wins, they would have to put on at least a little bit more of a streak than anyone has shown so far. The Cubs best bet is for the WC winner to be in the 86-88 win range, as they would only have to play 10 over .500 or so the rest of the way (still a stretch, but certainly could happen)

[sethuel1]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

[Derwood]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

That sounds about right, though The Cubs would have to go 17 over .500 the rest of the way, which is pretty daunting.

[Larry Horse]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

That sounds about right, though The Cubs would have to go 17 over .500 the rest of the way, which is pretty daunting.

 

Or as I like to think, given the consistency of this team, impossible.

[CubfaninCA]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

88 sounds about right.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

88 sounds about right.

 

Agreed, I've always thought 90 seemed high.

[CubfaninCA]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

88 sounds about right.

 

Agreed, I've always thought 90 seemed high.

 

If any team gets hot and goes over 88, my pick's Florida. They have the most talent, but sounds like injuries have slowed them down. I'm not certain of the status of Delgado & LoDuca.

[TB_11]

I was one of those who posted that 90 wins would be what it'd take to get the wild card, but it looks like I might be wrong on that one. IMHO, the winner of the wild card will be whoever among Florida, Houston, or New York gets hot for the end of the season, but expecting that team to play .650 ball might be a stretch.

[Backtobanks]

BP predicts the NL wild card winner with an average of 88.2 wins over one million simulations of the remainder of the season.

 

The Cubs are going to have a tough time ending up .500 (81 wins).