Stats Inc's 1991 and Sosa/Patterson comparison

[Bull]

a few excerpts:Sosa can hit a fastball a mile, but he looked positively weak-kneed on the breaking stuff.

 

Strike zone judgement is still Sosa's major problem. He struck out 150 times last year while drawing only 33 walks, figures which remind one of the young Juan Samuel. The White Sox used Sosa as a leadoff man against lefties for much of last season. But he'll never last in that role until he can learn to lay off bad pitches.

 

Sosa recorded 14 assists in right field last year, second only to Jesse Barfield, and comparisons to Barfield are appropriate: his arm is that good.

 

Many of the 22-year-old Sosa's current shortcomings can be chalked up to inexperience. However, his poor strike zone judgement should be watched. Whether it will improve, or remain at the level established in his five year professional career, is a big question mark. It could mean the difference between a good and a great major league career.

 

Whatever many of us think about Sosa now, there is no doubt that he was one of the best 1998-2003. This scouting report could be on Corey Patterson 2005. Maybe he's done til september and maybe that's good. In 1992 Sosa only had 250 or so AB, and put up his first solid year in 1993.

 

THere's still hope for Patterson, and he's still destined to be a #3 hitter.

 

Not that he'll be another Sosa, but that he's still young, his strike zone judgement is poor, he's been misused, and there's still overwhelming hope.

Edited August 6, 2005 by Bull

[DivineBovine]

Sosa never developed strike zone judgement. And Patterson never will either.

 

Sosa developed 60 home run power. He came up with 35 home run power, and maybe got a little pharmaceutical help. That's the only time he ever got some walks.

 

CPatt doesn't have the physical talent Sosa did, and raw physical talent means less in baseball than any other team sport. How about the ability to hit the lousy ball? CPatt doesn't have it. I'd get rid of him like I'd get rid of Dusty. CPatt typifies so much of the offensice problems on this team. No discipline whatsoever.

[erik316wttn]

Sosa never developed strike zone judgement. And Patterson never will either.

 

Sosa developed 60 home run power. He came up with 35 home run power, and maybe got a little pharmaceutical help. That's the only time he ever got some walks.

 

CPatt doesn't have the physical talent Sosa did, and raw physical talent means less in baseball than any other team sport. How about the ability to hit the lousy ball? CPatt doesn't have it. I'd get rid of him like I'd get rid of Dusty. CPatt typifies so much of the offensice problems on this team. No discipline whatsoever.

 

Sammy developed a halfway decent eye during those years. I saw him lay off some really close pitches.

[David]

How can you say that a guy who from 99-2003 never had an IsoP lower than .079.. (.079, .086, .111, .111, and .079) never developed any strike zone judgement?

 

Regardless of why it was, he was drawing walks throughout his prime years... Somebody with no judgement of the zone doesn't do that.

[Bull]

Sosa never developed strike zone judgement. And Patterson never will either.

 

THat's right but he did well in spite of that fact. I'm not talking about the obscene power or walks. In his prime, sammy hit for average as well.

 

Patterson with a line of .300/.350/.500, 30hrs, 100rbi would be alright with me.

[DivineBovine]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/4344/career

 

 

Those are Sosa's career stats.

 

Walk totals in 96/97: 34/45.

OBP in 96/97: .323/.300

 

 

In 98, he hit 66 homers. His walk totals instantly went up.

 

98-02- 73/78/91/116/103

 

 

I looks to me that he developed the ability to walk because he was slamming a ton of homers. It's easy to lay off pitches when you know the pitcher is scared of you. CPatt scares nobody.

[David]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/4344/career

 

 

Those are Sosa's career stats.

 

Walk totals in 96/97: 34/45.

OBP in 96/97: .323/.300

 

 

In 98, he hit 66 homers. His walk totals instantly went up.

 

98-02- 73/78/91/116/103

 

 

I looks to me that he developed the ability to walk because he was slamming a ton of homers. It's easy to lay off pitches when you know the pitcher is scared of you. CPatt scares nobody.

 

 

Sammy completely changed his stance and approach in 98...He became more patient at the plate and also started hitting the ball to all fields. From there came the improved average and power numbers... We could go on like this for hours, though. It's the chicken or the egg argument.

[DivineBovine]

Sosa never developed strike zone judgement. And Patterson never will either.

 

THat's right but he did well in spite of that fact. I'm not talking about the obscene power or walks. In his prime, sammy hit for average as well.

 

Patterson with a line of .300/.350/.500, 30hrs, 100rbi would be alright with me.

 

I'd take that too. But if strike zone judgement is the problem, then I don't see him ever developing it.

 

And when has CPatt ever bat .300 in a full year? Single A? And the .350 OBP- wow, that would be something. I don't see it.

 

Those numbers are is absolute upside, but more realistically:

 

.270/.330/25/70 is what we can hope for, and he's got a long way to go. Not worth it, imo.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How can you say that a guy who from 99-2003 never had an IsoP lower than .079.. (.079, .086, .111, .111, and .079) never developed any strike zone judgement?

 

Regardless of why it was, he was drawing walks throughout his prime years... Somebody with no judgement of the zone doesn't do that.

 

For reference, Patterson has a .075 IsoD at AAA.

[David]

Sosa never developed strike zone judgement. And Patterson never will either.

 

THat's right but he did well in spite of that fact. I'm not talking about the obscene power or walks. In his prime, sammy hit for average as well.

 

Patterson with a line of .300/.350/.500, 30hrs, 100rbi would be alright with me.

 

I'd take that too. But if strike zone judgement is the problem, then I don't see him ever developing it.

 

And when has CPatt ever bat .300 in a full year? Single A? And the .350 OBP- wow, that would be something. I don't see it.

 

Those numbers are is absolute upside, but more realistically:

.270/.330/25/70 is what we can hope for, and he's got a long way to go. Not worth it, imo.

 

Those numbers are basically exactly what he put up last year (only a little short on all of them, mostly due to a horrendous final month)..

[David]

How can you say that a guy who from 99-2003 never had an IsoP lower than .079.. (.079, .086, .111, .111, and .079) never developed any strike zone judgement?

 

Regardless of why it was, he was drawing walks throughout his prime years... Somebody with no judgement of the zone doesn't do that.

 

For reference, Patterson has a .075 IsoD at AAA.

 

That's actually somewhat surprising/impressive. Of course, it is a small sample size, and he's hitting like .240.. He has been doing much better lately, though.

[DivineBovine]

One thing I have to add here.

 

I'm not a hitting coach, just a baseball fan. But its so easy to take a guy with raw physical tools and say all he needs is some "plate discipline". How many guys in the history of baseball have come up K'in 150 times, walking 30 times, and have actually changed that? Not many, if any at all.

 

If it were as easy as saying - I'll just swing at good pitches, then why haven't more guys done it?

 

CPatt doesn't just flail at pitches 2 feet out of the zone, and go up there trying to hit a home run, he takes meatballs right down the middle. He swings at hanging meatballs and swings through them.

 

If you have 150 K potential with no walk potential, you have something lacking in HAND-EYE coordination, in my humble opinion.

[GaryWoods]

How can you say that a guy who from 99-2003 never had an IsoP lower than .079.. (.079, .086, .111, .111, and .079) never developed any strike zone judgement?

 

Regardless of why it was, he was drawing walks throughout his prime years... Somebody with no judgement of the zone doesn't do that.

 

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

But while Sammy's walk rate improved from .065 in 1997 to .101 in 1998, an increase of 3.5%, his strikeout rate remained pretty consistant (.251-.241, a 1% change).

 

Sammy may have become somewhat more selective when he changed his approach in '98. But I think his increased walk totals were more due to the fact that he batted in way more situations where he knew he wasn't going to get anything to hit.

[David]

How can you say that a guy who from 99-2003 never had an IsoP lower than .079.. (.079, .086, .111, .111, and .079) never developed any strike zone judgement?

 

Regardless of why it was, he was drawing walks throughout his prime years... Somebody with no judgement of the zone doesn't do that.

 

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

But while Sammy's walk rate improved from .065 in 1997 to .101 in 1998, an increase of 3.5%, his strikeout rate remained pretty consistant (.251-.241, a 1% change).

 

Sammy may have become somewhat more selective when he changed his approach in '98. But I think his increased walk totals were more due to the fact that he batted in way more situations where he knew he wasn't going to get anything to hit.

 

High strikeout totals do not equal bad plate discipline. Nor does plate discipline equal low strikeout totals.

 

There are plenty of examples of hitters who strike out a lot but know the strikezone very well. Adam Dunn and Mark Bellhorn are some extreme examples.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One thing I have to add here.

 

I'm not a hitting coach, just a baseball fan. But its so easy to take a guy with raw physical tools and say all he needs is some "plate discipline". How many guys in the history of baseball have come up K'in 150 times, walking 30 times, and have actually changed that? Not many, if any at all.

 

If it were as easy as saying - I'll just swing at good pitches, then why haven't more guys done it?

 

CPatt doesn't just flail at pitches 2 feet out of the zone, and go up there trying to hit a home run, he takes meatballs right down the middle. He swings at hanging meatballs and swings through them.

 

If you have 150 K potential with no walk potential, you have something lacking in HAND-EYE coordination, in my humble opinion.

 

Patterson walked 45 times last year. He's walking at a good clip in AAA this year. Before this offseason when they tried to change his swing, his walk rate had increased in every MLB season. I don't know how you can make the claim that he has no walk potential, or was not improving in that aspect of his game.

[treebird]

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

I don't think walks are the opposite of strikeouts like that. When one goes up, the other doesn't necessarily (or even usually) go down. In fact, the easiest way to cut down on strikeouts would be to cut down on walks as well by swinging early in the count and just trying to make contact. This would result in reduced production for most players though.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

I don't think walks are the opposite of strikeouts like that. When one goes up, the other doesn't necessarily (or even usually) go down. In fact, the easiest way to cut down on strikeouts would be to cut down on walks as well by swinging early in the count and just trying to make contact. This would result in reduced production for most players though.

 

Excellent assessment. It's possible to have excellent plate discipline and yet still strike out. Strike outs are no worse than any other out.

 

I think much of Sosa's renaissance came from being able to hit the outside pitch the other way. As he changed his approach to hitting, pitchers were forced to come inside to him in order to try to get him out. When they missed inside and got too much of the plate, those are the pitches he'd destroy.

[DivineBovine]

One thing I have to add here.

 

I'm not a hitting coach, just a baseball fan. But its so easy to take a guy with raw physical tools and say all he needs is some "plate discipline". How many guys in the history of baseball have come up K'in 150 times, walking 30 times, and have actually changed that? Not many, if any at all.

 

If it were as easy as saying - I'll just swing at good pitches, then why haven't more guys done it?

 

CPatt doesn't just flail at pitches 2 feet out of the zone, and go up there trying to hit a home run, he takes meatballs right down the middle. He swings at hanging meatballs and swings through them.

 

If you have 150 K potential with no walk potential, you have something lacking in HAND-EYE coordination, in my humble opinion.

 

Patterson walked 45 times last year. He's walking at a good clip in AAA this year. Before this offseason when they tried to change his swing, his walk rate had increased in every MLB season. I don't know how you can make the claim that he has no walk potential, or was not improving in that aspect of his game.

 

 

He still has never walked more than 45 times. And I don't really care how many walks he seems to be putting up in AAA, because he's batting like .200. Anyone can decide not to swing as much and increase their walk total, the challenge is doing that without screwing up the other aspects of your game.

 

That's what CPatt just plain lacks. "Talent". This is what I call talent, not speed or power. He is not talented in terms of the ability to make contact or in terms or reaction time.

 

Adam Dunn and Bellhorn are 2 good examples of high K guys who get on base. But when has anyone with CPatt's discipline ever ever developed into a Dunn or even a Bellhorn? These guys were walking from the beginning.

 

Why is it that everyone seems to assume it is easy to change those habits? Nobody has named one guy who has been able to do it except Sosa. And we all know that Sosa has a lot of special circumstances. CPatt will never ever have 60 home run power.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One thing I have to add here.

 

I'm not a hitting coach, just a baseball fan. But its so easy to take a guy with raw physical tools and say all he needs is some "plate discipline". How many guys in the history of baseball have come up K'in 150 times, walking 30 times, and have actually changed that? Not many, if any at all.

 

If it were as easy as saying - I'll just swing at good pitches, then why haven't more guys done it?

 

CPatt doesn't just flail at pitches 2 feet out of the zone, and go up there trying to hit a home run, he takes meatballs right down the middle. He swings at hanging meatballs and swings through them.

 

If you have 150 K potential with no walk potential, you have something lacking in HAND-EYE coordination, in my humble opinion.

 

Patterson walked 45 times last year. He's walking at a good clip in AAA this year. Before this offseason when they tried to change his swing, his walk rate had increased in every MLB season. I don't know how you can make the claim that he has no walk potential, or was not improving in that aspect of his game.

 

 

He still has never walked more than 45 times. And I don't really care how many walks he seems to be putting up in AAA, because he's batting like .200. Anyone can decide not to swing as much and increase their walk total, the challenge is doing that without screwing up the other aspects of your game.

 

That's what CPatt just plain lacks. "Talent". This is what I call talent, not speed or power. He is not talented in terms of the ability to make contact or in terms or reaction time.

 

Patterson is 1 for 2 again tonight. As others have said, he started off hitting well, then went into a funk that culminated with him having to take off a few days with some chest illness, which possibly contributed to his funk. Since coming back he's been hitting well and still walking, and he's up to .253. I don't think his lowered average is due to him trying to walk more, in fact, I'd bet that his walks have come in games where he has had the most success.

[DivineBovine]

Well, I'm rooting for CPatt. I hope he comes through. But let's see him play well over a full season.

 

I'd still trade him without thinking about it.

[DivineBovine]

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

I don't think walks are the opposite of strikeouts like that. When one goes up, the other doesn't necessarily (or even usually) go down. In fact, the easiest way to cut down on strikeouts would be to cut down on walks as well by swinging early in the count and just trying to make contact. This would result in reduced production for most players though.

 

Excellent assessment. It's possible to have excellent plate discipline and yet still strike out. Strike outs are no worse than any other out.

 

I think much of Sosa's renaissance came from being able to hit the outside pitch the other way. As he changed his approach to hitting, pitchers were forced to come inside to him in order to try to get him out. When they missed inside and got too much of the plate, those are the pitches he'd destroy.

 

 

True, walks and K's might not be total opposites, but they are related.

 

You have high OBP high K guys like Dunn who are great players. There are also low K low BB guys like Aram who are great players.

 

But the fact is high K low BB guys are rarely great players. In fact, I can't think of one. And I can't think of one who has changed.

 

The change is the key. For instance, you can keep the bat on you should and increase the BB, but you'll also increase the K. The trick is increasing the BB and keeping the rest of you game. You can't do that easily. To do this, not only do you have to not swing at bad pitches, you have to keep swinging at good ones and making contact.

 

How come nobody has given me an example besides Sosa?

[GaryWoods]

Simple mathematics would suggest that if increased walk totals were always the result of improved plate discipline, then decreased strikeout totals would be another result.

 

I don't think walks are the opposite of strikeouts like that. When one goes up, the other doesn't necessarily (or even usually) go down. In fact, the easiest way to cut down on strikeouts would be to cut down on walks as well by swinging early in the count and just trying to make contact. This would result in reduced production for most players though.

 

Excellent assessment. It's possible to have excellent plate discipline and yet still strike out. Strike outs are no worse than any other out.

 

I agree in theory.

 

But in the context of this discussion, the prevailing idea is that Sammy's increase in walks was primarily the result of developing greater plate disipline. To me that means he stopped swinging at bad pitches for strike three and started taking them for ball four. For that to be the case, his strikeout rate would have had to decline at about the same rate as his walk rate increased; in this case, it didn't.

 

I believe that what led to Sammy's increase in walks was primarily his improvement at situational hitting. He still swung at plenty of pitches over his head or at his shoes; but he came to understand that there were situations where those were the only pitches he was going to get, and learned to leave the bat on his shoulder in those cases.

 

And that is a form of plate disipline, I guess, but I don't think that's the kind that's being discussed in the article that started this thread.

 

EDIT: I've been a little distracted today, so for some reason I have been using the phrase "plate discipline" in place of "strike zone judgement." Although one is a component of the other, they are certainly not interchangeable terms. I do believe that Sammy dramatically improved his plate discipline in 1998; it's his strike zone judgement that I don't think ever significantly improved.

 

Sorry for the confusion.

[neely crenshaw]

also it much easier to take a guy who k's too much and walks very little when he is hitting 50+ homers. then it is a case when you would rather have him swinging than walking simply because there is a great chance of something big happening.

with corey that is not the case and will never be the case. he can be a decent player but if he wants to be great he has to put the ball in play more.

[TB_11]

a few excerpts:Sosa can hit a fastball a mile, but he looked positively weak-kneed on the breaking stuff.

 

Strike zone judgement is still Sosa's major problem. He struck out 150 times last year while drawing only 33 walks, figures which remind one of the young Juan Samuel. The White Sox used Sosa as a leadoff man against lefties for much of last season. But he'll never last in that role until he can learn to lay off bad pitches.

 

Sosa recorded 14 assists in right field last year, second only to Jesse Barfield, and comparisons to Barfield are appropriate: his arm is that good.

 

Many of the 22-year-old Sosa's current shortcomings can be chalked up to inexperience. However, his poor strike zone judgement should be watched. Whether it will improve, or remain at the level established in his five year professional career, is a big question mark. It could mean the difference between a good and a great major league career.

 

Whatever many of us think about Sosa now, there is no doubt that he was one of the best 1998-2003. This scouting report could be on Corey Patterson 2005. Maybe he's done til september and maybe that's good. In 1992 Sosa only had 250 or so AB, and put up his first solid year in 1993.

 

THere's still hope for Patterson, and he's still destined to be a #3 hitter.

 

Not that he'll be another Sosa, but that he's still young, his strike zone judgement is poor, he's been misused, and there's still overwhelming hope.

 

After his 1990 season, Sosa had played in a little over 200 games and had about 750 ABs of major league experience. As of right now, Corey has 500+ games and 2000 ABs of major league experience. In general I think people's patience with Corey is beginning to run a little low.