Ken Rosenthal's Contenders to Watch

[CubfaninCA]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

 

You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power.

 

A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run).

 

A home run's a ball in play. Hate to break this but single > walk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's a few quantative example and hopefully my understanding of RC = OBP * TB is correct...

 

If runners are on second and third, and Walker walks, but Soriano gets a single and drives in both players, doesn't James rate this as equal run creation?? However, Soriano creates 2 runs, whereas Walker leaves it to someone else and he may just get stranded.

 

I'm pretty sure the formula THT uses for RC is more complex than OBP*TB.

[imb]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

 

You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power.

 

A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run).

 

A home run's a ball in play. Hate to break this but single > walk.

 

Yes, but most balls put into play are not singles/doubles/triples/HR

[nilodnayr]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

 

You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power.

 

A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run).

 

A home run's a ball in play. Hate to break this but single > walk.

 

hate to break it to you but i said a walk > than a ball put into play...im pretty sure that homers arent counted in balls put into play (at least not when i calculate it) but i could be wrong...lets look at Lee from 2002-2004...

 

When reaching 3 balls in a count he has 249 walks and 86 strike outs. Now since we are talking about walks here lets eliminate striking out by a swing since the batters intention in those situations is to put the ball into play. Now I have no clue if that stat is kept anywhere but I will making the assumption that half of his Ks were looking. Anectodally I think that well less than half are looking, but until I can find a stat to prove me wrong I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. So that means that with 3 balls, Lee has taken 292 pitches, 43 of them resulted in outs, 249 in walks, which if we count walks as bases that would be .853 bases per 3 ball count.

 

Lee has 1725 ABs in the same time period. Hes struck out 423 times so he has put the ball into play 1302 times. 1x his singles (266) + 2x his doubles (105) + 3x his triples (10) + 4x his homers (90) (which I will count as balls put into play here) = 866. So out of 1302 times he put the ball into play he garnered 866 bases for himself or .665 bases per ball put into play. So CLEARLY a walk is more valuable than a ball put into play in terms of total bases (at least in Lees case). Now there is definitely something to be said about the value of moving guys over and driving them in, but just looking at total bases thats a base a game, which is pretty significant.

 

Now feel free for all to tear apart my late night dabble in statistics. There are a lot of other things to take into consideration as well, baseball doesnt function in a bubble so feel free to point them out.

[Guest]

Here's a few quantative example and hopefully my understanding of RC = OBP * TB is correct...

 

If runners are on second and third, and Walker walks, but Soriano gets a single and drives in both players, doesn't James rate this as equal run creation??

No, look at the math. In that particular version of RC a walk is worth far less than a single. Singles are "counted" twice due to the fact that they raise both OBP and TB, whereas a walk only impacts a player's OBP. In your scenario Soriano would be credited with one RC while walker would be credited with zero. (A walk doesn't generate any TB, and even 1.000 OBP times zero is zero.) Another simple example:

 

Say you have two players with 10 PA. Player A goes 3-10 with three singles, Player B goes 2-9 with a couple singles and a walk. Doing the simple math, we find that Player A would have 0.9 RC in those AB, while player B would just have 0.6. Clearly the original form of RC gives far more weight to singles than walks.

 

Singles are more valuable than walks overall. (Though when nobody is on base a walk is just as good, if not moreso.) Pretty much all run estimators do a good job of accounting for this fact, however, so it really doesn't make sense to criticize them in this regard. Like what they tell you or not, most run estimators do a great job of telling you how productive a player is.

[biittner77]

http://www.sportingnews.com/exclusives/20050725/634761.html

 

Pretty fresh article talking about deal-making and needs. Here's what he says about our team:

 

"Cubs. The returns of shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and reliever Scott Williamson will help. Williamson, coming off elbow ligament transplant surgery, is in terrific shape, having lost about 25 pounds. G.M. Jim Hendry still wants to acquire more bullpen help and an outfield bat, preferably a righthanded one."

 

I had always believed that Hendry would be more partial to acquiring a left-handed bat (Dunn, Huff, Floyd, etc...), but since guys like Kearns and Preston Wilson have been in the news lately, I guess Hendry is looking at any bat that he feels is an improvement over Hollandsworth in LF.

 

Who will that bat be, if anybody?

 

Hoops

 

Craig Wilson.

 

Can't he not come off the DL until after the deadline? Hes untradeable until the offseason (assuming he isnt put on waivers and clears them).

 

There's no rule against trading a player that is on the DL, it just doesn't happen very often as why would you want a guy that's hurt.

 

Rondell White was on the DL when the Cubs acquired him.

 

Is Craig Wilson the one that looks like Kerry Wood?

[Electron Blue]

http://www.sportingnews.com/exclusives/20050725/634761.html

 

Pretty fresh article talking about deal-making and needs. Here's what he says about our team:

 

"Cubs. The returns of shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and reliever Scott Williamson will help. Williamson, coming off elbow ligament transplant surgery, is in terrific shape, having lost about 25 pounds. G.M. Jim Hendry still wants to acquire more bullpen help and an outfield bat, preferably a righthanded one."

 

I had always believed that Hendry would be more partial to acquiring a left-handed bat (Dunn, Huff, Floyd, etc...), but since guys like Kearns and Preston Wilson have been in the news lately, I guess Hendry is looking at any bat that he feels is an improvement over Hollandsworth in LF.

 

Who will that bat be, if anybody?

 

Hoops

 

Craig Wilson.

 

Can't he not come off the DL until after the deadline? Hes untradeable until the offseason (assuming he isnt put on waivers and clears them).

 

There's no rule against trading a player that is on the DL, it just doesn't happen very often as why would you want a guy that's hurt.

 

Rondell White was on the DL when the Cubs acquired him.

 

Is Craig Wilson the one that looks like Kerry Wood?

 

And the way I recall it, that's pretty much where he stayed for the next year or two :wink: