NSBB Top 20 Prospects-How are they doing?

[imb]

I'm bored, so let's check this out.

 

1. Brian Dopirak-Unanimous selection. Not as broad a skill set as Pie, but enormous power. Could be one of the best 1B/Power hitters in the game if he reaches his potential. Not quite of Pujols/Helton caliber, though... perhaps Richie Sexson. Some defensive issues to work out. Could stand to improve his discipline, though his power will likely help him in that regard.

 

To date

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/dopirak.jpg

 

2. Felix Pie-Loads of talent, but still pretty raw. His all-round tool set means his floor is pretty high, as well as his ceiling. Some concern over whether or not his power will ever develop. Speed should help keep his BA high, but needs more discipline to maintain a good OBP. In summary: Loads of potential with a long way to go to reach it, but sill a lot of time to get there.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/pie.jpg

 

3. Angel Guzman-Was very close to reaching a very high ceiling before the injuries set in. If he bounces back fully and can stay healthy, is good enough to be the #1 prospect. Many lingering health concerns, though. First, will he ever be able to put together a fully healthy season? Hasn't yet. Second, will he recover completely from surgery? May lose some effectiveness after a serious injury.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/guzman.jpg

4. Ryan Harvey-Higher ceiling than Pie, perhaps… more power and discipline. Farther to go, esp. with injury setbacks. Still hasn’t proven much professionally. Maintaining a healthy K-rate is key. Weak on low & away strikes. Good bat speed, but a long swing. Not atypical of a power hitter, though... Dopirak had similar issues and was able to shorten his swing.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/harvey.jpg

 

5. Jason Dubois-Perhaps the surest bet in the system. Not the highest of ceilings but still pretty good. Will very likely be a fair/decent corner OF in the majors.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/dubois.jpg

 

6. Billy Petrick-Good sinker, makeup. Loads of potential, but like many high-potential guys he’s not there yet.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/petrick.jpg

 

7. Renyel Pinto-Good fastball and change. Pretty close to majors at this point.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/pinto.jpg

 

8. Sean Marshall-Good control. Some injury risk. Great curve, but needs a third pitch. Still a long way to go, and a lot left to prove

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/marshall.jpg

 

9. Jon Leicester-Needs to keep the BB down. Has been able to do that recently, helping fulfill the high reward part of high risk/high reward. Very close to the majors and very close to his ceiling, which isn't terribly high but not bad either. Would make a decent starter, but needs more AAA work for that to happen.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/leicester.jpg

 

10. Carlos Marmol-Good mid-90s heater. Still pretty young, despite being in the system for a long time.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/marmol.jpg

 

11. Grant Johnson-Injury concerns. Little professional experience as yet. Nice mid-90’s fastball, good slider

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/johnson.jpg

 

12. Matt Murton-Good contact/discipline, but needs to develop more power to make the bigs as an outfielder. Lost some patience after coming to Cubs, but could just be a blip on the radar. Looks to post good OBP, but power is the big concern here… .425 career SLG. Not great in the outfield, weaker arm. Not a lot of speed. Defensive issues may force him to 1B, where he has far less value.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/murton.jpg

+1BB +1R

 

13. Mike Wuertz-Very good slider. Not many options beyond that, though. Probably limited to a reliever without more of a pitch selection.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/wuertz.jpg

 

14. Ricky Nolasco-Not many positives, not may negatives. Good K/BB. Decent stuff... Fastball’s pretty straight, and not much in way of offspeed pitches. Projects as a #4 starter. Strikes out more people than you think he would based on his stuff. Young for his league.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/nolasco.jpg

 

15. Geo Soto-Good Defense, decent all-round. Most advanced of the three catchers. Not many strengths, but not a lot of weaknesses, either. Still young for his league. Best bet to reach majors of our catching prospects, but probably the lowest ceiling.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/soto.jpg

 

16. Bobby Brownlie-Will he ever get his speed back? If not, his MLB future is very doubtful. Pitches don’t have enough movement to survive without a good fastball. (Minor league version of Matt Morris?) Curve has also declined along with his fastball.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/brownlie.jpg

 

17. Richard Lewis-Great 2004 season, but was inflated by a high BABIP. Good defender, has decent speed. Looks to hit for pretty good average. Too many strikeouts for someone who looks to be a contact/speed type hitter. Could be a decent MLB starter. Getting old for a prospect.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/lewis.jpg

 

18. Mark Reed-Good contact, OBP for a catcher… hasn’t shown much beyond rookie ball, though. Also has some defensive concerns

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/reed.jpg

 

19. Matt Craig-Craig comes in exactly where he did on last year's prospect list, at #19. The 23-year-old, switch-hitting 3B posted a very similar 2004 season to his 2003 campaign, just a level higher. Decent average, nice patience, and pretty good power (20 HR in the AA Southern League last year). He tends to strike out quite a bit, though that's mitigated by the far amount of walks he's able to work.

 

New news with Craig since the rankings were done...we'll have to see how testing positive for steroids use impacts his future. This could knock him down the list.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/craig.jpg

 

20. Ronny Cedeno-In November 2003 Jim Hendry saw fit to add Ronny Cedeno to the Cubs 40-man roster. This left a fair number of Cubs fans scratching their heads. At that point, after all, Cedeno was still a 20-year-old kid who had yet to put up an OPS above .600 at any level above rookie ball. Thankfully, Ronny responded to the organization's confidence by having a breakout 2004 season. While a stat line of .279/.328/.401 may not sound impressive at first, it's actually pretty good for a 21 year old middle infielder seeing his first AA experience. That being said, Ronny still has a lot of room for improvement, particularly his BB/K ratio which hasn't improved at all over the past few seasons.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/cedeno.jpg

 

 

BONUS PROSPECT ACTION

 

21. Rich Hill-Rich may be an all or nothing type of prospect. The lefty has wicked stuff, particularly a nasty curve ball that he showcased during the last spring game of 2005. It's also helped him amass some massive K totals in the minor leagues. With as much raw stuff as Rich has, his potential is through the roof. Unfortunately, he as two big issues working against him: Age and control problems. Along with all those strikeouts, Rich also walked more batters than is healthy and threw a staggering number of wild pitches. He's also a bit old for where he sits on the minor league totem pole, so he doesn't have a whole lot of room for error. Still, his tremendous upside makes him an exciting prospect to watch.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/hill.jpg

 

29. Eric Patterson-Like his brother Corey, Eric is a fine athlete with plus speed. Although their swings are similar, Eric is more of a gap hitter and doesn't have the same power as Corey. He also doesn't have the same problems with walks as Corey does. E-Pat will be successful if he learns how to better utilize his speed and make consistant contact. In the field, he is an above-average defender with soft hands and good range.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/patterson.jpg

 

42. Sean Gallagher-12th round draft pick in 2004 put up strong numbers in Rookie ball last season. 44 Ks, 3.12 ERA in 34 2/3 innings. Features a low 90s fastball and one of the best curves to come out of the 04 draft. Not much projectability, but knows how to pitch.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/gallagher.jpg

 

47. Scott Moore-In the 2002 draft, the Tigers took Moore as the eighth overall pick in the draft. He has shown power hitting 14 home runs in 391 at-bats last season in the Florida State League. Moore has also shown patience at the plate drawing 49 walks last year. But his career batting average is just .240; he strikes out way too much, and his speed is below average. His defense needs more work. The Cubs hope he can turn it around in 2005.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/moore.jpg

 

NR. Mark Pawelek-2005 Cubs first round draft pick.

 

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a47/madhops_42/pawelek.jpg

[sporrer17]

It's really interesting to see how some of these guys are doing after all the ratings from the offseason.

 

Disappointments:

1, 3, 5, 6, 7 (to an extent), 9, 11(somewhat), 16, 17

 

Surprises:

2 (showing power), 10, 12, 14, 20, and basically all those you listed outside of the top 20.

 

It's funny how from in one-half a season, a couple of guys in the 40's could jump up to the top 10. Obviously any of these guys could have a breakout 2nd half (Dope, come on...) or the opposite, they could fall off the face of the earth the rest of the year. It just goes to show, you can't judge these guys too quickly, and you can't put a whole lot of stock in A ball players, or AA for that matter...heck, even AAA success doesn't equal big league success (ask Dubois).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thanks for doing this. Have we had a high pitching prospect put up back to back good seasons? Seems like it's injuries, and breakouts followed by regression across the board.

[T2E]

My thoughts:

 

1. Dopi- We were all so high on him.......he's still young, so his struggles aren't super big, but his stock has dropped

2. Pie- excerpts from the chat discussion on the top 50 pre-season:

Tinkers2Evers 1:18 pm: and i have concerns about pie

Tinkers2Evers 1:18 pm: will he ever gain power?

#-o Boy do I look dumb

3. Guz- what a shame

4. Harvey- if these are his numbers in three years I'll start to worry; still has a long ways to go

5. Dubois- hard to tell what he would have done had he played daily, the low BB rates concern me

6. Petrick- Perhaps we all jumped the gun on him, but he's still young and has good stuff.

7. Pinto- starting to put it back together

8. Marshall- I had concerns about him in the discussions- he's making me look silly so far

9. Leiscester- It's no longer the control problems; it's the HR problems

10. Marmol- Marmol was a unanimous selection at #10; other than his three AA starts, Marmol has made us look smart

11. Johnson- We'll have to see.....

12. Murton- excerpts from the chat discussion:

Tinkers2Evers (4:47:04 PM): i like murton more than many others

Tinkers2Evers (4:47:09 PM): he has a solid skillset

Tinkers2Evers (4:47:14 PM): with walks, some power and average

Tim Stuart (4:47:40 PM): If Murton doesn't develop more power, he'll never make the bigs.

Tim Stuart (5:05:25 PM): he's the current incarnation of Ben Grieve, but right handed.

Tinkers2Evers (5:06:46 PM): he still has the walks and batting average to go back on

:wink:

13. Wuertz- developing into a solid middle man

14. Nolasco- I've always thought he was underrated, despite his awesome AA numbers, he continues to not draw much attention

15. Soto- Great D and a solid bat

16. Brownlie- excerpts:

Tinkers2Evers (4:48:57 PM): he's not the pitcher he once was

Tinkers2Evers (4:49:03 PM): and i don't think he ever will be

Tinkers2Evers (4:49:09 PM): the K rates, the fastball

Tinkers2Evers (4:49:17 PM): it all points downhill

17: Richard Lewis- excerpts:

Tim Stuart (5:30:36 PM): I don't like Lewis

Tinkers2Evers (5:30:45 PM): i don't love lewis either

Tim Stuart (5:31:28 PM): His AA numbers were almost entirely driven by batting average on balls in play

18. Reed- I'd like to see more power, but his #'s are solid in Boise...still early

19. Craig- unspectacular, more power needed

20. Cedeno- to be fair:

Tinkers2Evers (5:10:04 PM): his offensive value is all BA

Tinkers2Evers (5:10:08 PM): that worries me