Craig Counsell Only Trusts One of His Catchers Right Now

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

 

With the game on the line Monday night, Craig Counsell placed his trust in Carson Kelly—not because he gave them the best chance for a game-breaking hit, but because there would be more outs left to get, either way. It looked like a decision that might cost the Cubs the game, but the team pulled it out, after all, so the only major takeaway from the sequence is what it revealed about where Counsell's mind runs as he considers his current roster.

The bases were loaded with two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning, with the Cubs trailing 4-3. Graham Ashcraft was on the mound for the visiting Reds. Counsell had a choice. Kelly's place in the batting order was due, but left-handed batter Michael Conforto was still available on the bench. Ashcraft is a nightmare of a matchup for Kelly, given the former's stuff and the latter's swing path. Conforto, however, is a good option against what Ashcraft throws. Specifically, the big Reds righty was using a cutter that sat around 97.5 MPH Monday night, with good carry—12 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). He also throws a slider that sits just above 90 MPH, playing off that cutter. Here are the run values per 100 pitches seen for both of the hitters Counsell had available for that moment since the start of 2025, on offerings fitting those criteria from right-handed hurlers.

• Conforto: 1.39
• Kelly: -2.10

Given an average at-bat lasting four pitches, that means that Conforto was likely to be worth about 0.14 runs more than Kelly in that moment. If you take a little air out of that to account for the pinch-hit penalty (whereby most players perform worse when pinch-hitting than they do the rest of the time), we can all it 0.10 runs. That sounds small; it isn't. Managers design entire gameplans around the chance to increase their run expectancy by 0.1 runs in late, close situations. In reality, of course, runs will either score or not, but the results we see are the result of each side making dozens of choices to nudge the probabilities in their direction. A 0.1-run boost in an at-bat that had a Leverage Index of 7.91 (according to FanGraphs) is astronomical; it's a no-brainer to pursue that.

Counsell didn't pull the trigger on the move, though. Kelly struck out on three sliders from Ashcraft, looking thoroughly overmatched, and the Reds had escaped the jam with the lead intact. In a vacuum, that's a managerial blunder. In a broader context, though, it's easy to understand. You just have to put yourself in Counsell's mindset—which is to say, you have to trust Kelly a lot more than Miguel Amaya behind the plate, and you have to badly want days off to be full days off for the latter.

Whether Kelly or Conforto had batted (and whether or not they had delivered), the Reds had one turn left to try to add to their four runs. Counsell had to think a bit about the cost of pinch-hitting Conforto for Kelly there, because if he did so, his bench would be depleted, and Amaya would have to catch whatever was left of the game. That's a potential problem, for two reasons:

1. Counsell clearly trusts Kelly much more as a defensive catcher right now, in addition to leaning into the veteran's second straight strong start at the plate. Kelly has caught 186 innings this season; Amaya has only caught 116. When the season began, it looked like the two would share time pretty evenly. Already, Kelly has seized as regular a starting gig as almost any catcher enjoys in the modern game. With high-leverage defensive outs left to get, Counsell would prefer his stronger backstop be in there.
2. Monday's was the fourth of 10 straight games for the Cubs, and the midpoint of a seven-game homestand sandwiched between two demanding road trips. Days off are precious, and any player who gets one at a demanding position (like catcher) is best served if they get the full day. Using Amaya to finish out the game would have compromised his rest, in the middle of a rough schedule patch.

Thus, Counsell chose to let Kelly try to collect the key hit. The strategy failed, but thanks to a great at-bat by Pete Crow-Armstrong to lead off the bottom of the ninth, the other reason why it made sense to withhold Conforto came tidily into view. Counsell was able to take down right-hitting Matt Shaw (who had pinch-run for Moisés Ballesteros) and send up Conforto against the Reds' Emilio Pagán, with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. 

This was actually a much lower-leverage situation. With nobody on base and two down, the odds of scoring were poor; the game was likely to go to extra innings. Pinch-hitting Conforto was a pronouncement of real faith in his hitting ability, even in the pinch, because the team needed him to spark a game-winning rally to make the move worth it. If he'd been retired (or even if he'd reached, but been stranded), the Cubs would have started the bottom of the 10th with a much slower runner on second base than Shaw would have been if he'd simply made the last out of the ninth. 

It looks like a bit of a paradox, on the part of Counsell—like he should have trusted Conforto in the eighth, if he was going to trust him in the ninth. That Conforto hit the walkoff homer to cash in a longshot bet isn't what redeems or explains the move, though. Rather, it's the question of Kelly vs. Amaya, and of managing rest during what looks like a trying segment of the schedule.

We know much more about how Counsell views his roster and his team's progress through this season now than we did in the middle of the eighth inning last night. The signals were subtle, but real. More importantly, of course, we also have new evidence to incorporate as the team moves forward: that Kelly really does get overmatched by many tough righties, but also that Conforto still has meaningful pop left in his bat, and that Kelly's defensive value to the team is worth deploying him at times when it seems not to make sense, just as it's worth doing so with Crow-Armstrong during his slumps at the plate.

 

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[mk49]

TBH, I think you're speculating too much.  I'm not Counsell, but to me, the difference between Kelly and Amaya isn't that big  defensively.  I guess Carson is better, when it comes to ABS challenge.  A few pitchers, like Shota pitches better, when Amaya is catching.  Offensively, Kelly has been better.  I just want Amaya to catch, every time Shota starts.  We could probably pick a few extra wins

Edited 1 hour ago by mk49