Hoby Milner Is Wildly Outperforming His Expected Stats. Can the Cubs' Southpaw Keep It Up?

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs signed left-handed pitcher Hoby Milner in the offseason to pair with Caleb Thielbar as the team's primary two southpaws in the pen. Milner had many years of service with the Milwaukee Brewers and his time overlapped with manager Craig Counsell, meaning there was (and is) a familiarity between the two. Milner has always been a unique reliever; with fastball velocities that are well below the norm (and well below 90mph) and a funky arm slot, he's carved out a role that has allowed him to thrive at times. 

Thus far with the Cubs, Milner has, on the surface, performed well. His ERA sits at 2.19 on the year, and he's limited left-handed hitters to just a .182 average and a .249 wOBA; this is what he was brought to Chicago to do. In fact, his wOBA against so far (in very limited sample size) for left-handed hitters is better than his career average. 

However, there are some red flags in his 12 innings and change so far, as well. One of the first flags can be seen within his FIP, which sits at 5.16, nearly three runs over his ERA currently. His expected FIP is over 6.00. On their own, this is not good; when FIP and ERA don't align, something is up. There are ways to outperform your FIP. We only need to look at Cubs icon Kyle Hendricks for this recipe. If you throw a lot of strikes, don't walk hitters, and keep the ball in play specifically on the ground, you can make an entire career of throwing 88mph and beating your FIP. Which brings us to our second red-flag: Hoby Milner is not getting ground balls.

Milner is normally a ground-ball machine. Over his previous 264 innings before coming to the North Side, Milner sat at a groundball rate of 51.1%. That puts him just within the top 20 in terms of all relievers over that span (17th to be exact). Yet, so far, his ground-ball rate is sitting below 40% on the year; this is a massive drop in ground balls and a reason for us to pause the idea that he's somehow out-pitching his FIP and that he's well on the way to being a FIP-beater in 2026.

The next red flag: a massive drop in strikeouts. Milner, despite throwing below 90mph, has never been a strikeout slouch (even if he was never a standout in that regard) Over that same 264-inning span, the side-armer struck out 22.6% of the hitters he faced. This is a bit below league average, but considering how much lower his velocity sits, this is fairly admirable. Yet in 2026, he's down to just three strikeouts total, good for a 6.1% strikeout rate. That's not good. In fact, while he's struck out only three hitters, he's walked four meaning so far, more walks than strikeouts. 

So, what's going on? I don't think he's broken and I think this is probably some small sample stuff more than anything. While it's true that his fastball velocity has dipped slightly (down from an 88mph average last year to an 87.5mph fastball this year), his Fangraphs' Stuff+ rating hasn't really seen a drop-off; his overall Stuff+ is at 104 (compared to his career Stuff+ 106) and his fastball Stuff+ is standing steady at 107. In his last outing against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 23, his velocity was 87.8mph. He looks fine in this regard.

He's also not struggling to get swings outside the zone, as he has a 29.1% chase rate, which is the highest chase rate the lefty has gotten since 2023. His whiff% and his K% are clearly in the bottom one percent (a K% of 6.1% will do that), so it's hard to figure out why he's not really getting whiffs right away. If the velocity is fine, and the shape is fine, and he's getting more chase... you'd expect the strikeouts to follow. 

One reason why he may be struggling here a bit: he's featured the sinker more than you'd normally expect. His usage on this pitch is up from 33.4% to over 43% of the time. His whiff% last year on the sinker was 9.7% and this year it's 9.1%. It's just not a pitch that's designed to strike hitters out. It is used for groundballs and batted ball control and I think this is exactly why his FIP, xFIP, and K% are all out of whack: Milner has faced a ton of traffic. In fact, over his 12.1 IP, the vast majority has been when runners were on, the exact time you'd be more careful in terms of throwing strikes. 

We can see which pitch Milner uses as his "strike-throwing" pitch with a visualization of how he uses his offerings. His sweeper and his changeup are generally used when he wants you to chase off the plate, especially his sweeper. This is not a pitch he wants in the zone, but well out of the zone; it's why it has such a high whiff percentage. His sinker, however, is a pitch that is far more in-and-around the zone. If you're stuck facing traffic on the bases, you don't want to throw a sweeper off the plate. In a worse-case scenario, it's not only a ball, but gets past the catcher and moves the runners up. Instead, you're likely to be much more careful and intentional.

Milner's best pitch has generally been that sweeper. This is a weapon out of the hand of the reliever because of how awkward his arm angle is; the only LHP in MLB with a lower arm slot so far in 2026 is former Cub and current Yankee, Tim Hill. He's using it less than normal this year, almost an 8% reduction in usage. Why? Again, there's probably a good argument that contextually, he's been less able to use it dealing with so many runners on base.

One other part of the story: the injuries the Cubs are facing. So far, the Cubs have had to send all three of their high-leverage relievers, Daniel Palencia, Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey, to the IL. Recently, Caleb Thielbar has also joined those four. The pecking order is all out of whack for Counsell. Milner hasn't always been placed in his best spots. On April 20, he was brought in to face left-handed hitter Kyle Schwarber to end an inning. He was left out to start the next inning as another lefty, Bryce Harper, was leading off. However, he walked the lefty and then got stuck facing Adolis Garcia and Alec Bohm during this inning.

Is that the best usage of Milner? Probably not; I suspect the team may have replaced their southpaw with Bohm up and a runner on in a perfect world. Instead, Milner clearly worked around Bohm to put two on to face fellow lefty Bryson Stott. It all worked out; no one scored, but with the lack of bullpen depth right now, the Cubs are left to ask themselves if they would more trust Milner's experience or someone else's inexperience too often right now.

What this all means is that we're in a situation where neither his ERA or his underlying numbers are telling us the whole story. What feels most likely is that, due to a combination of pitching injuries jumbling the bullpen pecking order and small sample size, Milner's going to be fine when these things normalize. His stuff appears to be about the same as it always is in both velocity and shape, and he appears healthy. Hitters are hitting him harder, but he hasn't really gotten to use his best pitches as often and he's been put into a lot of situations where runners are on base. Nothing in his profile suggests he's incapable of getting whiffs. In fact, his sweeper whiff rate is actually up from 2025! 

In the end, it's probably safe to expect that Milner's probably not as good as his ERA would indicate, but not nearly the disaster his xFIP suggests he's been. Data is great, but data sometimes can miss context; all xFIP sees is a lack of strikeouts, not that the Cubs' pitching staff has been ravaged by injury and that the veteran reliever, being one of the few pitchers that Counsell can trust in big moments, has likely been put in situations he isn't well-suited for. While Milner may not be someone who's going to blow you away, his availability during a time in which the Cubs need arms is not-nothing, either. He might not be striking out a ton of hitters, but he's been just effective enough and has helped the Cubs through a rough period in his own way.

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What do you think of Hoby Milner so far? Do you trust the ERA? Are you worried about the lack of strikeouts? Sound off in the comment section below and start a discussion!

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[tornmeniscus]

Lol. No.