Chicago Cubs 2026 Opening Day Roster Projection, v 3.0

[Cory Sparks]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

 

It’s officially the final month without regular season baseball, and thus, it’s time for another Cubs opening day roster projection. Besides, there have been important changes lately. The North Siders have made a pair of seismic moves for Edward Cabrera (trade) and Alex Bregman (free agent) since the last version of our roster projection came out.

In this article, we’ll recap how those moves have had a domino effect on the rest of this roster makeup and who will have to battle extra hard for their spot in spring training.

Pitchers (13)

• Shota Imanaga - SP

• Matthew Boyd - SP

• Cade Horton - SP

• Jameson Taillon - SP

• Edward Cabrera - SP

• Colin Rea - RP

• Javier Assad - RP

• Phil Maton - RP

• Caleb Thielbar - RP

• Hoby Milner - RP

• Jacob Webb - RP

• Hunter Harvey - RP

• Daniel Palencia - RP

The huge change here comes from Chicago acquiring former Miami right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera for top prospect Owen Caissie and a pair of infielders, in Christian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon. The first domino to fall is Colin Rea. He’ll easily make the Opening Day roster, but his starting spot turns into more of a swingman role, similar to what he had to start the 2025 campaign. This doesn’t mean he’ll stay out of the rotation, though. No Cubs starter has a clean health history.

Who leaves the 13-man depth chart? Porter Hodge is the most sensible option. Hodge struggled mightily with his command in 2025, posting an ERA above 6.00 in both the majors and Triple-A Iowa. The walks (18 in 33 innings of big-league ball) were a major concern. Hodge will likely continue to work on his stuff in Iowa, but he won’t be alone. Luke Little and top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins will be in the fight, with major-league aspirations of their own. Javier Assad could also end up there, depending on how the team's bevy of minor-league signings look in camp.

Catchers (2)

• Carson Kelly

• Miguel Amaya

The catching situation seems locked in, at least for now. If the summer of Carson Kelly doesn’t yield a satisfying sequel, top catching prospect Moisés Ballesteros is waiting in the wings and could shift back to his traditional spot to platoon with Amaya in the future. For now, though, a timeshare seems like the most likely outcome, and Ballesteros looks to be ticketed for DH duty.

Infielders (5)

• Michael Busch - 1B

• Tyler Austin - 1B

• Nico Hoerner - 2B

• Dansby Swanson - SS

• Alex Bregman - 3B

When a team signs their new third baseman to a 5-year, $175 =-million deal, it’s an ‘act now and react later’ situation. Alex Bregman, a three-time all-star, will take Matt Shaw’s spot at the hot corner. The rest of the infield remains the same, for now, although Nico Hoerner, who was near the top of the league in WAR (6.2) last year, will be playing on an expiring contract.

Outfielders (5)

• Ian Happ

• Pete Crow-Armstrong

• Seiya Suzuki

• Matt Shaw

• Kevin Alcántara 

While the Cubs built up their rotation by taking a swing for Edward Cabrera, their pack of outfield prospects lost its top dog in Owen Caissie. This opened up an opportunity for Kevin Alcántara, who has flashed his power/speed combo at the Triple-A level. It also opens the door up for Shaw. Keep in mind that Kyle Tucker not coming back opened up another spot, and Shaw is taking on a utility role that includes some outfield work. Alcántara gets a shot to operate with an expanded role, and if Shaw isn't traded, he could get significant playing time in the grass. However, Justin Dean, Chas McCormick and Dylan Carlson will all be in camp, too, bying for versions of Alcántara's spot that would reduce Shaw's likelihood of playing in the outfield.

Designated Hitter (1)

• Moisés Ballesteros

Ballesteros is in wait-and-see mode, as the Cubs have a plethora of either unproven outfielders (Shaw, Alcantara) or talents on expiring contracts (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki). His bat will make him hard to ignore, as he hit .298 with nine walks to 12 strikeouts in his first big-league stint. It’s a small sample, but seeing a green bat turn in a 13.6% walk rate and an .868 OPS should bode well for his chances in 2026.

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Who did we miss, and what would you change about our Opening Day roster projection? Be sure to leave a comment, and we will get back to you.

 

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[Bertz]

I would be surprised if everyone is healthy and Assad makes the roster.  All indications coming from the team are that they are being, frankly, fanatical about stockpiling depth.  Even if there are a couple of spring training injuries I think you should assume no pitcher with minor league options aside from Horton and Palencia is breaking camp with the team.

I suspect Alcantara's not making the team either.  Whether it's also for depth concerns or because the team lacks confidence in him, the team adding both Carlson and McCormick feels telling.  One guy in that mold is just insurance, two feels like a signal.  That said Carlson's probably washed and McCormick can be stashed at Iowa, so Alcantara's got a better chance of breaking through than any of the Cubs' young pitchers.

[Arlen]

On 1/29/2026 at 7:33 PM, Jason Ross said:

He's better using DRS, he's worse using OAA. It depends on which you'd like to use. 

And Shaw is on the upswing, not beginning to jump the shark.

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, Arlen said:

And Shaw is on the upswing, not beginning to jump the shark.

Development is not linear. Simply because Shaw is young does not mean he is on the upswing. While the Cubs would certainly love that to be the case, plenty of young players peaked their rookie seasons and then fell apart. Shaw had about 1.5 good months at the plate and one good defensive data point. Bregman has been one of the best 3b in baseball and maintained that last year. There is no guarantee Shaw improves beyond where he is. 

Lastly, to "jump the shark" one must do something ridiculous for little reason because you're all out of ideas. The Cubs didn't do something ridiculous for little reasoning by signing Bregman. They signed a 125 wRC+ player. At best that's what you're hoping Shaw might become. So how is that the Cubs "jumping the shark"?

[Arlen]

I suggest looking at the typical curve of the career history of good baseball players, Jason. They are both good baseball players, Shaw and Bregman. Good baseball hitter/fielders tend to peak in their 20's. Pick 10 very nice third basemen that are now retired. Look at when they peaked and when they tailed off. It's pretty much the same, whatever the position.

Edited February 5 by Arlen
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[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Arlen said:

I suggest looking at the typical curve of the career history of good baseball players, Jason. They are both good baseball players, Shaw and Bregman. Good baseball hitter/fielders tend to peak in their 20's. Pick 10 very nice third basemen that are now retired. Look at when they peaked and when they tailed off. It's pretty much the same, whatever the position.

What you're describing is going to result in a likely case of survivor bias. If I picked 10 random hitters, there's a good chance I pick players who had long careers; we think of Scott Rollen a lot more then, Keston Hiura. And by doing that, I will only look at players who had a long career; it will create a data set that is incomplete.

But there in lies the issue; after posting a 140 wRC+ in his rookie season, Hiura looked like a player "on the up swing". But young players don't just consistently get better. And before we get further; Hiura was a top-15 prospect in baseball on FanGraphs, well above anywhere Shaw got and he still collapsed. 

That's the issue. You seem to want to only assume Shaw is going to get better. The MLB is littered with Keston Hiura types; good prospects who failed, he isn't a special story. Hiura's rookie season was head above heels better than Shaw and he bombed. So why can't Shaw? If I compare Shaw to his arc instead of whatever good 3b who played 15 years, it changes things by a massive magnitude. 

I'm not saying Shaw is Hiura or Rolen or anyone. What I'm saying is that we can't assume the good outcomes for a rookie just because they're the outcomes we want. For the Cubs' sake they should hope Matt Shaw does have a long career but they also cannot assume it. Alex Bregman has had a very good career. We already know that. And he projects to age strongly. 

[Arlen]

On 2/5/2026 at 1:21 AM, Jason Ross said:

What you're describing is going to result in a likely case of survivor bias. If I picked 10 random hitters, there's a good chance I pick players who had long careers; we think of Scott Rollen a lot more then, Keston Hiura. And by doing that, I will only look at players who had a long career; it will create a data set that is incomplete.

But there in lies the issue; after posting a 140 wRC+ in his rookie season, Hiura looked like a player "on the up swing". But young players don't just consistently get better. And before we get further; Hiura was a top-15 prospect in baseball on FanGraphs, well above anywhere Shaw got and he still collapsed. 

That's the issue. You seem to want to only assume Shaw is going to get better. The MLB is littered with Keston Hiura types; good prospects who failed, he isn't a special story. Hiura's rookie season was head above heels better than Shaw and he bombed. So why can't Shaw? If I compare Shaw to his arc instead of whatever good 3b who played 15 years, it changes things by a massive magnitude. 

I'm not saying Shaw is Hiura or Rolen or anyone. What I'm saying is that we can't assume the good outcomes for a rookie just because they're the outcomes we want. For the Cubs' sake they should hope Matt Shaw does have a long career but they also cannot assume it. Alex Bregman has had a very good career. We already know that. And he projects to age strongly. 

You're making what is simple into something complex. Look at fielders/batters who play into their mid to late thirties. Then, look at their peak years. Pretty basic.

The answer to the problem you cite is to, a. scout and coach very, very well and, b. accumulate that excellent young talent instead of throwing it away in semi-desperate trades (e.g., Tucker). At the end, I'm not worried. It isn't me paying Bregman as he gets grayer. 

Edited February 7 by Arlen