After Standing Firm on Moisés Ballesteros at Trade Deadline, Will Cubs Install Him Full-Time in 2026?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

At the 2025 MLB trade deadline, the big hang-up the Cubs kept running into was simple: everyone wanted Moisés Ballesteros. The Nationals were interested in a package of Matt Shaw and Cade Horton in exchange for controllable southpaw MacKenzie Gore, but if Chicago wasn't willing to give up both of them, then Ballesteros had to be in the mix. When they talked to the Marlins about starters Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcántara; when they talked to the Twins about pitchers Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Joe Ryan; and when they talked to the Pirates about Mitch Keller and David Bednar, Ballesteros was the name that came up every time. The Rays were interested in Ballesteros, in any deal for Drew Rasmussen. The Athletics liked him when the two clubs briefly discussed Mason Miller.

It's not that Ballesteros is a top-10 prospect, globally, or anything. By most estimates, he's something like a top-50 guy. The buzz around him is more about the combination of floor and ceiling. The lefty batter will turn 22 in November. He hit .316/.385/.473 at Triple-A Iowa and .298/.394/.474 in his limited time with the big-league club this year; those are sensational numbers for any 21-year-old. He put up a lot of them while trying to cut the mustard as a catcher, notching 593 innings behind the plate in the minors. That's probably not his long-term role, but increasingly, it looks like he can hit enough to be a good player even if he's a first baseman and/or designated hitter.

Ballesteros has a really good swing. That was the key takeaway from his stint in Chicago, late in the campaign. His bat speed (72.7 miles per hour, on average, although in fewer than 100 competitive swings) is above average, and he does that with a short stroke that can handle the high fastball. He also showed the ability to turn on the ball and punish pitchers who miss with anything on the inner half, including hitting one home run in Pittsburgh in September that one simply can't hit if one doesn't have above-average power.

He has great feel for contact, especially within the strike zone, and he made progress even within the 2025 season in terms of not chasing outside the zone. Ballesteros looks like a good big-leaguer, and one who's ready to take over a full-time job in 2026. He's accumulated nearly 800 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs; he doesn't need any more.

Defensively, it doesn't look like Ballesteros will clear the bar to stick at catcher—but it's worth noting that one of his shortcomings (below-average framing skills) will be mitigated by the implementation of the ABS challenge system. He could use another full season of catching in the minors, if that's the plan for his long-term defensive home, but the likelihood that he's ever a plus behind the plate is remote, and his bat is so far ahead of the mitt that holding it back any longer to draw toward that improbable straight would be to misplay the hand.

Thus, this winter, the Cubs will have to ponder trading him again. Interest in Ballesteros remains strong, and several of the teams to whom Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins spoke in July will be on the other end of the line again in November and December. They could move their young, budding slugger for the controllable pitching they so badly need, although Ballesteros alone won't command any of the players mentioned above, save perhaps Alcántara. It seems just as plausible, though, that they'll retain Ballesteros and promote him to a bigger gig for 2026. With Kyle Tucker likely to depart via free agency, Seiya Suzuki could be ticketed for a return to right field. That opens up the DH spot, and Ballesteros is a strong candidate to step into the breach.

Fans will, naturally, prefer it if the team makes a splashy free-agent addition to fill the lineup spot vacated by Tucker. There are several good options out there. The front office might lock in, however, on a lower-tier target who could enmesh themselves in the lineup on a more versatile basis. That could be Harrison Bader, Andrew McCutchen, Lane Thomas, Mitch Garver, Rhys Hoskins or Starling Marte. Any of those guys might sign relatively cheaply. Bader and Thomas could factor in as platoon partners for Pete Crow-Armstrong, if the Cubs decide Kevin Alcántara isn't ready for that responsibility. The others would be more like half-time DH candidates, but they'd each have other ways to filter into the lineup—spelling Michael Busch or Ian Happ, for instance, depending on which of the group they sign.

Integrating young hitters is always risky, but even teams with ample resources have to do it. The Cubs are no exception. They'll want to add a proven player who limits their exposure if Ballesteros struggles, but as the offseason looms, it looks more likely that they'll find a way to install him in their lineup next season than that they'll trade him, despite the demand for him on that market.

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[Bertz]

It's funny you mention Garver because I feel like that's probably the ideal outcome for Ballesteros, right?  30ish games behind the plate (maybe pair him with one dedicated SP?), 100ish at DH, and maybe a dozen at 1B.  That's insanely valuable as you look at constructing a roster.

I do think it's probably a good time for the org to really ask how comfortable they are with Mo behind the plate.  Because realistically if you completely give up on having him catch he's more or less Josh Naylor.  Quality player but not someone who will make you rue the day he left.  In fact if you shut the door on catching right now how much daylight is there really between Mo and Jonny Long?  Not nearly enough to pass up on using Ballesteros to headline a Mackenzie Gore trade that's for damn sure.

[Andre and Ryno]

Moises's swing is pleasing to watch, but there's real reason for concern.  His GB% was nearly 66%, which is essentially unplayable.  Unless he is able to elevate more, he is toast. 

His high GB% is not a wild fluke.  His swing is relatively flat.  Vertical tilt of 29 degrees, compared to MLB average of 32.  And his attack angle is 5 degrees, compared to MLB average of 10. 

He's also an extreme opposite-field hitter, averaging 10 degrees to the oppo side, compared to MLB average of 2 degrees to the pull side.

So we know that the most valuable thing for a hitter to do is pull the ball in the air, yet Moises has extreme opposite-field and GB tendencies.

Hopefully this is all just small sample size and adjusting to major-league pitching.  But the Cubs need to be confident that this offseason he will correct these serious flaws.  If they're not, then they should look hard at a trade.

[Matthew Trueblood]

9 hours ago, Andre and Ryno said:

Moises's swing is pleasing to watch, but there's real reason for concern.  His GB% was nearly 66%, which is essentially unplayable.  Unless he is able to elevate more, he is toast. 

His high GB% is not a wild fluke.  His swing is relatively flat.  Vertical tilt of 29 degrees, compared to MLB average of 32.  And his attack angle is 5 degrees, compared to MLB average of 10. 

He's also an extreme opposite-field hitter, averaging 10 degrees to the oppo side, compared to MLB average of 2 degrees to the pull side.

So we know that the most valuable thing for a hitter to do is pull the ball in the air, yet Moises has extreme opposite-field and GB tendencies.

Hopefully this is all just small sample size and adjusting to major-league pitching.  But the Cubs need to be confident that this offseason he will correct these serious flaws.  If they're not, then they should look hard at a trade.

I think you felt it at the end there, the way you closed your comment: you're reading too much into the extremely limited big-league sample, and oversimplifying what the swing data tells us in context. Ballesteros has shown he can lift the ball, over larger samples against high-level competition outside the big leagues. The risk that he doesn't do so enough in the majors is real, but you're sweating it too much at this early stage. Given what he's shown us so far, we need at least another few hundred PAs to see how well he'll be able to tap into his power, but the balance of the evidence is positive, not negative.

[Matthew Trueblood]

14 hours ago, Bertz said:

It's funny you mention Garver because I feel like that's probably the ideal outcome for Ballesteros, right?  30ish games behind the plate (maybe pair him with one dedicated SP?), 100ish at DH, and maybe a dozen at 1B.  That's insanely valuable as you look at constructing a roster.

I do think it's probably a good time for the org to really ask how comfortable they are with Mo behind the plate.  Because realistically if you completely give up on having him catch he's more or less Josh Naylor.  Quality player but not someone who will make you rue the day he left.  In fact if you shut the door on catching right now how much daylight is there really between Mo and Jonny Long?  Not nearly enough to pass up on using Ballesteros to headline a Mackenzie Gore trade that's for damn sure.

I broadly agree. I do, however, think Ballesteros is still significantly higher than Long on pretty much any pref list you'll find—even without the defensive value he gets if he sticks at catcher. He bats lefty; Long bats righty. Long's shown reverse platoon splits in the minors, but I don't think that'll translate to the bigs. Long whiffs more, doesn't cover the whole zone as well, is more susceptible to spin. Plus, if two guys have had about the same amount of success at the same level and one is two years younger, the smart money is usually on the younger one being significantly better.