Adapting on the Fly at the End of a Long Year, Brad Keller Rescued Cubs Late in Game 3

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

What the Cubs have gotten from Brad Keller this year is remarkable. Even if you spotted the potetial for a great fit between the Cubs and Keller, as we did last November, it would have been hard to guess that he would move into short relief and emerge as the co-relief ace of a playoff-bound team. Keller pitched 69 1/3 regular-season innings with a 2.07 ERA. Having never struck out even 20% of opposing batters in a season at the major-league level before, he topped 27% in his first season as a full-time reliever. He got ground balls and limited walks. He held opponents to a .512 OPS. He was dominant.

Down the stretch, he was as good as ever, on a results level—but that's hidden the fact that he's had to make some significant changes to stay ahead of the curve and find things his body can do at the end of this very long year. Pitching in short bursts out of the bullpen is easier than starting, in that one doesn't have to pace oneself for as long an outing or find ways to get the same batters out two or three times in a game. However, as many hurlers will tell you, the routine of being a reliever can be much tougher than that of a starter, and learning the rhythm of that role poses major challenges. Pitchers have to learn when they can fit a side session, if they need to work on a given pitch, but they can't make themselves unavailable for the game that day in the process. They have a harder time scheduling their weight-lifting and other conditioning than do starters. For many pitchers, the end of a first season working in relief becomes very draining, very suddenly.

Happily, Keller's stuff has generally held up, and he's had the adrenaline of a team surging to the postseason to keep himself amped up and focused. However, that doesn't erase the grind. As the year has progressed, we've seen Keller gain and lose feel for certain pieces of his unusually wide arsenal, and he's had to scramble to fix some things by either shelving a pitch or emphasizing its cousin for long stretches.

The distinction isn't this clear or unidirectional, but it's helpful to separate Keller's season into two segments. When we do, we can spot some changes he's made, and then we can make note of the ways those changes manifested on Wednesday. Firstly, seemingly losing his feel for the sweeper, Keller has ratcheted down his usage of that pitch and booster his usage of the true slider, in its stead. That's been especially notable against right-handed batters, because the sweeper was a bit of a staple for him until August. Now, he doesn't seem to trust it at all.

As you can see, Keller's also gone to his sinker considerably more here in the playoffs than he did in September. That's a revival of a strategy he turned to in the middle of the summer. and it's mostly about the fact that his very cutterish four-seamer paired better with the sweeper—whereas his sinker (more of a running two-seamer, in shape) plays better off the hard slider.

We're seeing Keller go to his slider more often against lefties, too, actually. 

All of that is happening for a simple reason: Keller's velocity is trending slightly downward, and so is the carry on his heater. A slight loss of velocity on his fastballs but a substantial loss on his secondary offerings tells you that he's trying to lock in on shape, rather than speed. That's working, but it requires some changes of tack.

By contrast, he's maintained a great feel for spinning the ball, so it makes sense for him to lean into the pitches that rely on spin for big movement and rely less on pure power.

Keller's breaking stuff has become a muddle, in a way. He no longer has two distinct breaking ball looks, for the time being. He's throwing the slider much more than the sweeper, but even when he tries the sweeper, it's not taking off to the glove side the way it has in the past. It's just a slower version of his slider, in those moments. He's consistently found better depth on the pitch, though.

Keller's slider is now a pitch that will move down more than sideways, by a substantial amount. That can make it slightly less effective against righties, in that he'll induce fewer whiffs this way, but he can keep this version of the breaking ball on the plate much better than he could with the sweeper-first attack.

To set up that slider, Keller has also ventured more into testing the glove side of the plate with his sinker. Righty batters are looking for his four-seamer or for the sinker in on the hands, but Keller has gotten a bit more adroit at throwing it on the outer third. That's setting up the slider better than the same pitch can when thrown inside.

This is a big flurry of adjustments for a pitcher to be making at this time of year, but Keller is in a unique situation. As a former starter with a five-pitch mix whose team is counting on him for big outs, Keller feels he has ways to overcome bugs that pop up within his mix or that emerge from accumulating fatigue. 

That brings us to Wednesday night. The Cubs were clinging to a 4-3 lead when, with two outs in the top of the eighth, Craig Counsell called upon Keller. He entered a dirty inning, with two runners on base, and his job was to get out Caleb Durbin. He couldn't. In fact, he walked Durbin on four pitches, and you could be forgiven for feeling very concerned. The last we'd seen Keller, he was limping toward the finish against the Padres in the Wild Card Series, and he couldn't make it. Asked to pitch two innings that night, he'd come out for the second of them and utterly gone to pieces: two hits, two hit batters, a wild pitch. He was all over the place. Durbin's at-bat looked like evidence of more of the same.

Jake Bauers was up next, now with the bases loaded. That was terrible news for a wild Keller, because Bauers has been very patient at the plate all season—and he'd already had the two best and most productive at-bats of the game for the Brewers, by then. Keller missed high and away with a first-pitch fastball, and you could be forgiven for watching only through your fingers.

Then, in a semi-miracle, he simply locked it back in. Bauers's patience can be a double-edged sword sometimes. He wasn't going to swing at a 1-0 pitch with the bases loaded and the tying run at third base, almost no matter what. Keller hit the upper third of the zone with a fastball, and he was back in the count. Then, he fired home a changeup that also landed for a strike, and he was back in charge of the at-bat. Bauers had let him back into it, to be sure, but Keller made quality pitches. Having changed the slugger's eye level and messed with his timing, Keller then went back to the top rail for a swinging strike to end the frame. It was a huge mistake, and (essentially) classic Keller, the guy we've seen more of throughout this season.

There was no one else Counsell would trust to secure the win in the ninth, but there wouldn't need to be. Keller had walked Durbin because he couldn't find the feel for his sinker, so he simply stuck tightly to his four-seamer the rest of the way. He didn't really have the touch on his slider, either, but he landed the changeup in the zone another time or two en route to a strikeout of Blake Perkins. He got a first-pitch swing from Christian Yelich on a slider he'd meant mostly as a way to steal a strike, and when Nico Hoerner snared the resulting grounder and threw out Yelich, the game was over. It was as low-stress as such outings come, and it was made possible by Keller quickly determining what was working and doing it, eschewing what wasn't quite right.

No Cubs reliever threw even 20 pitches Wednesday, which is important. They'll have 28 hours between first pitches, with the late start Thursday night for Game 4. Everyone should be available, and relatively fresh. Keller has reasserted himself as the ace the team hoped they had at the back end of the game, at least for now, and he did it by re-centering himself and using all the tools available to him to escape a desperate jam.

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[Development DL]

Having coached Football and Track at the college and HS level , I have great respect for your knowledge of Bio Mechanics and It’s cousin Physiology of Exercise. 

Trying not to be condescending here , but I am not sure many appreciate your application to past performance and a process based predictive outcome . 

Now , you add in recovery elements. Like NFL players every hour makes a difference in optimal utilization of a pitcher , and his ability to perform . 

You don’t want to hear it from me , but it’s true . Quite a discussion starting topic and fan enhancer . 
 

You are unique in your style and approach .

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2025 by Development DL