Which Chicago Cubs Prospects Are Most Likely to Go at MLB Trade Deadline?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

One fascinating dynamic, as the trade deadline looms closer by the hour, is that nearly all teams throughout Major League Baseball believe their rightful place is among the contenders. A few (like the Arizona Diamondbacks, who traded Josh Naylor to the Seattle Mariners Thursday night and have made Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly available in talks) are ready to admit that this won't be their year, but vanishingly few teams are ready to accept even a medium-term rebuild.

Arizona vociferously claims to be planning to contend in 2026. Ditto the Baltimore Orioles, even though they're open for business on impending free agents. The Minnesota Twins are ready to sell, but not to turn their attention beyond 2026. Even the West Sacramento Athletics are telling teams they prefer prospects who will be ready to contribute almost immediately.

In such an environment, the Chicago Cubs are well-positioned. Their farm system isn't as deep as it needs to be, going forward, thanks to what look like some mid-round swings and misses from the last few drafts and some recent signees from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela who are struggling to find traction. Their Low-A affiliate in Myrtle Beach is full of players languishing, rather than smoothly scaling the professional baseball ladder.

However, in the upper levels, there are some exciting players who have found the keys and unlocked their talent. Let's talk about a fistful of players who will be brought up often in trade conversations.

The Bats in Iowa
I won't bore you with a full recapitulation of Owen Caissie's torrid two months. He's been talked about a ton, and with good reason. Nor should it be surprising to anyone, by now, to hear Moisés Ballesteros come up in trade rumors. They've had such unreservedly good years that teams will be thrilled to bring them in, and either could be slotted right into a big-league lineup for the final two months of this season. Ballesteros, though, comes with those questions about his future as a catcher, on which hinges his hope for future stardom. Of the two, while Caissie is talked about more, I think Ballesteros might actually be the more likely to be traded. It's not hard to imagine a team looking at his bat and deciding to roll the dice on his receiving, especially with the automated ball-strike challenge system set to come to the majors in 2026.

There are—count 'em—three other noteworthy hitters in Iowa, too. Kevin Alcántara is the most famous name in the second group, and now might be the Cubs' last chance to trade him for anything of substantial value. He's having a strong season with Iowa, not just in terms of surface-level stats (those are fine, but unremarkable, given his tools and experience) but in terms of the process stuff you wanted to see from him. Alcántara's been more aggressive on hittable pitches and more selective around the edges. His 90th-percentile exit velocity is up from 105 miles per hour to 107.6, a huge step forward, and he's whiffing less on breaking and offspeed stuff. That last part is his biggest bugaboo, and he doesn't have to be even average at it; he just has to get it out of the 'disastrous' zone, and he's done so against Triple-A pitching this year.

The thing about Alcántara is, despite his youth, he's in his final year of optionability. He won't have much trade value at all this winter, absent a chance to show what he can do in the majors down the stretch, because he'll have to make the team out of spring training and next year and stay up from then on. As a result, the Cubs will be more open to moving him than a team would normally be with a player who shows these tools and has these limiting factors on their trade value. Much depends on what the team can really get done, but if they make the number and magnitude of moves they hope to make in the next week, Alcántara could be a name on the move.

There's far less urgency to trade Jonathon Long, who isn't on the 40-man roster and doesn't even need to be added to it this winter. However, Long is a right-hitting first baseman, which is not the kind of profile you allow to stop a key trade from getting done. He's been very good this year for Iowa. After a tough adjustment period in June, he's raking again, and his season-long numbers include not just good results, but encouraging exit velocities (107 MPH 90th-percentile EV), solid approach metrics and above-average contact skills. I think the Cubs would prefer to keep him; he'd be a good candidate to be a part-time DH and platoon partner to Michael Busch next year. Again, though, his under-the-hood data will put him on some teams' wish lists and can't be treated as untouchable.

James Triantos is a mess. That's ungenerous, and unfortunate, but so has his season been. Injuries have interrupted Triantos's efforts to establish himself at Triple A, but his approach is the real problem. He doesn't show good pitch recognition or plate discipline. While he still has the feel for contact and has shown an uptick in power this year, the tools just aren't translating to skills—and it doesn't feel especially likely that they will. Because he has to be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft this winter, though, the Cubs might look to make him a throw-in somewhere.

The Currency of the Game: Young Arms
Jaxon Wiggins is the first name Hoyer will hear every time he picks up the phone this week. The Cubs don't have the depth (or the demonstrated ability to develop pitchers like this) to move a hurler like Wiggins without getting something huge in return, but then again, he's the kind of arm who can net a team something huge in return. The season he's having (striking out over 31% of opposing batters and allowing less than a baserunner per inning, and now thriving at Double-A Knoxville) is enough to put a pitcher very much on the map, as evidenced by his ascension into the top 100 on MLB Pipeline's latest update of that list.

Beyond Wiggins, there aren't a lot of arms for whom teams will clamor when they call the Cubs. The rise of Ryan Gallagher has been excellently documented here at NSBB by Jason Ross, and Brandon Birdsell is back in the mix at Iowa, but Birdell is missing about 2 mph from his fastball so far. Gallagher is the guy teams will prefer, with a deep mix and a fastball shape that grades better than most Cubs pitching prospects' do.

---

This is not an exhaustive list, but it's the top collection of names who could pry loose top assets for the team. The roster circumstances of (especially) Alcántara and Triantos might make moves more likely; the much-desired proximity of (especially) Caissie, Ballesteros and Long make them the chips who could level up a trade pursuit. It's pitching depth that makes or breaks organizations, though, and the Cubs have only a few hurlers teams will be excited to acquire. It will be interesting to see whether they feel that they can afford to move any of those arms.

View full article

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

The thing about Alcántara is, despite his youth, he's in his final year of optionability

So I believe this is somewhat up for dispute.  Arizona Phil listed him as having two options heading into this year.  And as much as Arizona Phil's opinions can be....interesting....I do tend to trust him pretty implicitly on roster administration minutiae.

That said the general point stands.  I think if the Cubs are willing to dip into the crew at Iowa they're going to win the bidding on nearly any player they covet.  Teams generally have to choose between talent and proximity when they get prospects back at the deadline.  Receiving someone with impact talent who you can call up immediately is going to be really tempting for opposing teams.

[Arlen]

Whatever you do, Hoyer, don't trade Jaxon Wiggins!

[Cubsfansince1974]

18 hours ago, Arlen said:

Whatever you do, Hoyer, don't trade Jaxon Wiggins!

You beat me to that!!   Yes agree.  We have had a bat heavy minor league system and he should be untouchable.