Cubs 2025 Draft Overview: High Floors Are Just Better Than Ceilings

[Paul Niemiec]

Before we dive into the picks themselves, there are 2 common themes we are seeing with the way Jed Hoyer, Carter Hawkins & company are going about their drafts. The first is high-floor college outfielders. Starting with Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley with their first two picks, with Kade Snell following in the fifth round. My first thought here is how this relates to the current roster at the MLB level, while weighing in the state of the farm system as is. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be here entrenched in center, but the situation in the corners is foggy in the not-so-distant future. We all want to see Kyle Tucker in right for the next decade, but until that contract is signed, we have to think about the future without him. Ian Happ is a free agent after 2026 and will be 32. Top prospect Owen Cassie is MLB ready, but with the Cubs projected to buy at the trade deadline in a few weeks, he will be their most valued trade chip. The same can be said about Kevin Alcantara. The prospect list before this draft has five outfielders in the top 30; outside of Cassie and Alcantara, the other three (Brett Bateman, Christian Franklin, Eli Lovich) are lower ranked and not currently doing anything special this season. 

The three outfielders they drafted would replenish the outfield prospect depth and conceivably give them three players who can play a role on the big league team sooner rather than later. None of these guys are projected as future perennial all-stars, but in a draft class where many of the top-tier college bats come with significant risk, this approach by the Cubs is playing it safe by securing what should be major league caliber players. The Cubs have a long history of developing quality MLB players who are not stars, and they are leaning into that again this year.

Another theme here amongst these bats is that they're all left-handed, and emphasize contact over power. That offensive profile is similar to the prospect report of Crow-Armstrong, so the Cubs know a thing or two about teaching lefty contract hitters how to add power. Kane Kepley probably won’t find a power surge, but Conrad and Snell could. Since the start of the 2023 season, Cubs left-handed outfielders have slashed .269/.344/.512 versus the .254/.315/.422 put up by righties. Much more goes into this than player development, but it is something to note. With the success of young lefties like PCA and Michael Busch, there is plenty of reason to believe that at least one of the players they drafted could be a productive big leaguer. 

The final theme of note here is the pitchers they drafted. Four out of five are college arms: Dominick Reid, Pierce Coppola, Jake Knapp and Colton Book. These are big boys, and they all produced plus strikeout numbers in 2025 while limiting walks. They all have one plus secondary pitch to pair with an above-average fastball that should tick up a bit after working with big league trainers. If any of these players develop a consistent third pitch, the ceiling is there for each of them to be a back-end to mid-rotation starter in the future. If the rotation doesn’t work out, there should be plenty of optimism about their transition to the bullpen. Reid, Coppola and Book have already generated some buzz as potential relievers. They are all projects to a degree, but so was Cade Horton. Remember, he was a shocking pick at No. 7 overall back in 2022. Jaxon Wiggins is another arm who has seen his stock rise of late. Brandon Birdsell was taken out of Texas A&M, and he is another large body who throws hard and strikes hitters out. Similar to the outfielders, there was a type of player that player development believes that they have success with, and they wanted to stockpile that type. These strategies read like this: develop the role players, sign the stars. So, Tucker is staying, right?

Let's dive into their top ten picks from the class.

1. (17th overall) Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest

The Cubs make it three straight years selecting a college bat with their top pick. They might regret passing on Virginia star Ike Irish, or the boom-or-bust phenom Jace LaViolette, but Conrad is still an exciting pick. He was ranked as the #28 draft prospect per MLB.com, but boosted his draft stock with an amazing start to 2025. In 97 plate appearances, he was slashing .372/.495/.744 with a 1.238 OPS. He suffered a shoulder injury that cost him the rest of the season, but if he continued to play at that level, there's a good chance he is off the board before the Cubs pick at 17. As aforementioned, Conrad is more of a high floor player. His contact/power mix, corner outfield arm strength, and solid speed for his size make him a safe bet to eventually be a solid-to-above-average major leaguer. This is evident by his 55 hit grade and his 50 power grade. The knocks are that he is a bit too aggressive at the plate, generating a lot of swing and miss, especially with breaking balls. There are also some concerns about his inability to pull the ball much. If the Cubs are able to cure Conrad’s swing and miss issues, this is a guy who could be in Wrigley by 2027. 

2. (56th overall) Kane Kepley, OF, North Carolina

Two selections in, two college outfielders in the class. Kepley is not the most intimidating hitter, as evident by his 5’8", 170 lbs frame. While he won’t be expected to swing it at the level we expect from Ethan Conrad, he is an on-base machine that can do plenty of damage on the basepaths. He went 45 for 48 in stolen base attempts, which was good for fourth in NCAA Division I. He takes his walks and does not strike out. He has excellent knowledge of the strike zone and rarely chases pitches outside. He hit .291/.451/.444 with 13 doubles and seven triples for the Tar Heels this spring. He has the legs to stretch a well-placed single to a double, but he will likely struggle to reach double-digit homers. However, Kepley’s calling card is his defense. He has PCA-like quickness and range for center field. If his bat plays enough to warrant regular playing time, he should contend for Gold Gloves. Kepley is another high-floor player that should carve out a role in the majors, but how big that role will be is yet to be determined. If the Cubs are able to turn him into the hitter they thought they were getting with Nick Madrigal, albeit from the left side, this pick will be a win. Another good comparison might be Adam Eaton with better defense.

3. (90th Overall) Dominick Reid, RHP, Abilene Christian University

ESPN released their final 145 top draft prospects list at noon on the first day of the draft. Dominick Reid was not on that list. North Side Baseball released their top 135 prospects list, and Reid was also missing from that one. MLB.com has their list of the top 250 draft prospects. Dominick Reid did make that list, at #209.  At first glance, this seems like a major reach for the Cubs. In three college seasons, he posted a 7-3 record and a 3.51 ERA, with his first two seasons being at Oklahoma State. Reid did break the ACU Wildcats’ strikeout record with 112 in 88 ⅓ innings, much in part to a lethal changeup in the low-to-mid-80s with lots of fade and sink. His fastball has some run on it and he has been able to get it up to 96, although it more commonly sits in the low-90s. He has confidence in both of these pitches and is not afraid to rely heavily on them. Outside of those, he has a breaking ball that resembles a slurve, but it is not very effective. For a college arm, his 50 grade for his fastball, and 40 grade for his breaking ball do not usually translate to "future front of the rotation starter". Maybe Reid develops a better breaking pitch and is able to hang around in the back of the rotation, but as of now, this seems like a reliever. This is another high-floor pick, but with a quicker trajectory to the majors. It is starting to become apparent that’s what the Cubs plan was in a weaker draft. The Cubs’ window is open now, and they want to add players who can contribute sooner rather than later. My issue here is that IF the plan all along is to use Reid in the pen, why not take the small, but hard-throwing reliever Brian Curley out of Georgia?

4. (121st overall) Kaleb Wing, RHP, Scott Valley H.S. (California)

Currently committed to Loyola Marymount, Wing has been playing as a two-way player through high school. It is unclear whether he would sign as a pitcher now or choose to honor his college commitment where he might get to continue to play shortstop as well, where he is regarded as a plus defender. His fastball started touching the mid-90s this spring, and with his 6’2", 180 lbs frame, there is a lot of hope for Wing to add additional muscle. Besides the fastball, Wing has a big curveball that has more of a 12-6 break rather than a horizontal slide. He has a changeup too that is not too special at this point, but since the Cubs got a high-floor arm already, they now can take a developmental project like Wing. For what it's worth, Wing was ranked as the 95th draft prospect by ESPN, so it seems the Cubs got lucky to get him here. Prying him away from college will be easier said than done, so the Cubs will likely need to pay above slot to sign him.

5. (151st overall) Kade Snell, OF, Alabama

The Cubs grabbed another college outfielder, and another Kade, in this draft. Snell was named captain of the Crimson Tide baseball team for the 2025 season. Coaches and players praise his work ethic, and say he is the toughest player on the diamond. This is a great sign for the Cubs, who seem to value clubhouse presence and leadership more than a lot of clubs (no, I am not just saying that because Justin Turner is still on the roster). Snell had his best season in 2025, finishing fourth in the SEC with his .363 batting average. Snell is another player with a keen knowledge of the strike zone. He struck out only 18 times while walking 38 times in his 262 plate appearances as a senior. Right now, Snell is a contact-over-power bat, but with his high exit velocity, he should be able to add more power if he starts lifting the ball more. Snell is a below average runner, which will limit him to a corner outfield spot, but he should be an adequate, although unspectacular, defender there. With no college eligibility remaining, Snell should be a cheap sign.

6. (181st overall) Josiah Hartshorn, OF, Orange Lutheran H.S. (California)

Hartshorn is a switch-hitting outfielder with good power potential to all fields, who probably should have been drafted earlier. He was mainly batting righty in high school due to an elbow injury, but has since begun swinging from the left side again. He won the 2024 MLB High School Home Run Derby as a junior and has the most raw power of any Cubs draft pick so far. It will likely take an above-slot deal to sign him, as he is MLB.com's #108 draft prospect. We will see if he signs with the Cubs or honors his commitment to Texas A&M.

7. (211th overall) Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida

Standing at a gargantuan 6’8" and weighing over 240 lbs, Coppola may remind Cubs fans of lefty reliever Luke Little. Though he was mostly injured this season, when he did pitch, he was effective. He struck out 43 hitters in 21 ⅓ innings and had a 2.53 ERA. This is a high upside pick, but the injury concern is going to be ever present.

8. (241st overall) Jake Knapp, RHP, North Carolina

This is the second Tar Heel selected by the Cubs, and the second really large pitcher taken (6’5", 270 lbs). Knapp had an incredible 2025. In 15 starts, he went 14-0 with a 2.02 ERA over 102 ⅓ innings. He struck out 88 while walking only 16, and he pitched two complete games. Knapp is another high-floor player with a lot of polish already. He has also already undergone Tommy John surgery, so there are injury concerns, but the 2025 National Pitcher of the Year is worth a gamble.

9. (271st overall) Colton Book, LHP, St. Josephs (Pennsylvania)

Stop me if you heard this one before: the Cubs select a college pitcher in the 2025 MLB Draft. His 3.53 ERA is not going to blow anybody away, but he struck out 122 hitters in only 86 ⅔ innings. If you compare his strikeouts to walks, he has a 6.10 K/BB ratio. Book may not stick as a starter as he transitions from college to the pros, but his ability to throw strikes and generate strikeouts is the blueprint for a quality lefty reliever.

10. (301st overall) Justin Stransky, C, Fresno State 

Stransky is a much-needed addition to the Cubs’ catching farm, because it is currently quite thin outside of Moises Ballesteros. Over his last two seasons, he hit .302 across 103 games. The 10th round is a great time to take a college catcher with offensive upside. Unlike some of the top drafted catchers, Stransky should actually remain a catcher throughout his career.

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[profisme]

Just a note, Birdsell was drafted out of Texas Tech. He did start at A&M but transferred to San Jacinto before finishing at Tech.