Where Does Cubs Star Pete Crow-Armstrong Rank Among Best 25-and-Under MLB Players?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

It's easy to get caught up in the hype, right now, because Pete Crow-Armstrong is having as good a season as any Cubs position player has had since Sammy Sosa was at his peak. That sounds hyperbolic, and in one way, it is: it's too early to say for certain that Crow-Armstrong can sustain this caliber of offensive production. He's hitting .267/.309/.557, but that on-base percentage is a telling number, and even it might be slightly kind to him. Over the last 30 days, the free-swinging center fielder has a .282 OBP, and his value has suddenly become very reliant on the unexpected explosion of power he's generating.

On the other hand, there are no more than five non-catchers in the league who provide more value with their glove, so Crow-Armstrong's floor was higher than that of most young hitters, anyway. Now that he appears to be a genuine 30-homer slugger, and baking in the value he adds with sensational speed on the bases, it's hard to put more plodding or erratic players ahead of him—in All-Star balloting, or on ranking lists like this one.

To give a sense of where things stand with Crow-Armstrong, here's a list of the 15 players I believe to be the best in the game, among those 25 years old or younger. This is just my own list, with limited influence from anyone inside the game, but it's a helpful way to frame this player in his shining moment. To consider what a contract extension for him might look like; where he has room to improve; and what already makes him special, it's helpful to draw some comparisons between Crow-Armstrong and his peers. Here goes.

1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Cubs fans are well within their rights to hope Crow-Armstrong will win the MVP this year, and all comers must wrest the thing from Shohei Ohtani, but Carroll is one of the legitimate candidates beyond those two. He's not as strong a defender as Crow-Armstrong, and the Diamondbacks' good options in center field have kept him exclusively in right this year, but Carroll is the same kind of dynamic, slashing athlete Crow-Armstrong is. He's leading the National League in triples for what would be the third year in a row, and while some of that is due to Chase Field being unusually triples-friendly, the rest is that he's one of the game's great power/speed threats.

He had a hiccup in the first half of last year, but for the lion's share of his tenure in the majors, Carroll has been an elite hitter. He has better strike-zone judgment than Crow-Armstrong; the same feel for contact; and more power. He's a balanced and lethal talent, to whom the Diamondbacks guaranteed $111 million over eight years. He can't become a free agent until after 2031, unless something goes horribly wrong in the meantime and Arizona declines a club option for that campaign.

2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
Plenty of people throughout baseball would put Witt first on this list. He can do most of what Carroll can, and he plays shortstop. The edges on his game are just a little bit more jagged. He steals bases, but is a bit too prone to getting caught for my tastes. He's good enough to stick at short for a long time, which is greatly to his credit, because he was a mess at that position when he first arrived in the majors. However, while some metrics now conisder him among the best defenders in the game at that spot, I would rate him as average there. He puts the ball in play at a very high rate and uses his speed to find hits, as well as driving the ball impressively. He's on a contract that runs at least through 2030, and he has player options at the end of it that could take the total value close to $300 million. It's more likely that he'll decline those options and end up making a new $300 million for his 30s, the way things are going now.

3. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
He's still been very, very good this year, but Henderson has missed a bit of time and hasn't played at the transcendent level that made him a real threat to Witt and Aaron Judge in MVP consideration for most of 2024. Ranking him here is my bet on him climbing that one rung again and regaining a claim on the title of best young shortstop in the American League. A lefty batter, he's capable of just about everything Carroll is at the plate, with Witt's defensive profile. So far, he hasn't tapped into as much power as Carroll has; he doesn't lift the ball enough for that. The baserunning element also isn't there for him. Still, he's one of the game's brightest young stars, and it's easier than it should be to overlook him amid a stellar season that has only failed to live up to the historic standard he set for himself last summer.

4. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
The decisions get harder, rather than easier, starting right around here. De La Cruz has such wide error bars that it's hard to argue with folks who like any of the next three players on the list better than him. However, he's flashed the ability to impact a game on a level only one of them can match, and he can do it more often. His power is flashing the elite potential he's glimpsed throughout his short career, thanks in large part to better management of his oversized strike zone.

I worry about his frame at shortstop, and about the logistics of switch-hitting at his size and with his athleticism. On balance, though, his speed and arm strength give him so many ways to be valuable that he still soars up this list. He could slide to third base or center field, and still be a superb fielder. He could continue to hit too many grounders, but he'd still end up with a lot of singles (and a whole lot of stolen bases) if he did. Again, too, the upside here is goofy. It's a switch-hitting shortstop who could go 40/40. It's the face of a franchise until 2040. It's hard to match.

5. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Like Crow-Armstrong, Chourio can sometimes go into swing mode and help opponents get him out. Like Crow-Armstrong, he can also leave you utterly gobsmacked by the power he creates from a compact frame, and like Crow-Armstrong, he's a good defender in center field and an impactful athlete out there on the bases. His feel to hit is better than Crow-Armstrong's, and his track record of hitting at an elite level is longer. He's a player who could evolve in any of several different ways, which is nice; there's no one injury or developmental choice that I think can derail him. There's also a chance that he's essentially this generation's answer to Willie Mays. He moves that freakishly, and shows that much instinct and passion on the field.

6. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
I would have Skenes lower on this list. This is one place where I caved to some input from people who work in the game, and to the general facts on the ground. The market still loves starting pitchers, regardless of the risk they always pose and the ways that an ill-timed injury can set back an entire organization. Skenes has proved so good (and, for the moment, so durable) that there are few players anywhere in the league that any front office would covet more. I'm not sure that's the right mindset. I don't think he's actually any more likely to hold up and pitch 2,000 innings without blowing out or losing his stuff than were Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. Then again, there were rarely even 10 players in their age bracket that you'd have rather had than peak Strasburg or Cole, so maybe the insiders know what they're doing. For me, the next four names would all be above Skenes, but it's reasonable to put him here.

7. Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres
How high you are on Merrill depends a little bit on how impressed you are with his defense, and a little bit on whether you think he can shake off the habit of getting banged up. If you're unconcerned on both fronts, he could sneak into the top five on this list. That's how good he's been, since he first set foot in the majors. He doesn't generate elite exit velocities or specialize in controlling the strike zone; he just has one of the game's great hit tools. Everything is hit on a line somewhere, and he uses his speed well on the bases. He's aggressive, smart, and profoundly talented. The smoothness of his last-minute conversion from shortstop to center field has me convinced that he'll be a plus outfielder for the next half-decade. He's also one of the better bets in the league to hit .300 over that span, which is like hitting .320 over most five-year spans of baseball history.

8. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
Merrill signed a deal that guarantees him $135 million through at least 2034, but that's peanuts, compared to the contract Rodríguez extracted from the Mariners. He's under team control through at least 2029, but that could extend another five years or more—and the total dollars could stretch to the long side of $400 million, if Rodríguez produces an MVP-caliber season or two in the next three and a half years. Rodríguez is the most uncontroversially great defender on this list so far, which covers for the fact that his offensive tools outstrip his production most of the time. He's a free swinger and will get himself out at times, but only a handful of hitters in the league can rival his bat speed, so he has top-tier power lurking in his skill set, waiting to be actualized by some minor swing adjustments or a cleaned-up approach at the plate.

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs
This is where Crow-Armstrong lands, for me. It's a massive leap from before the season, when he wouldn't have made my list of even 25 players in this age range, let alone the top 10. That's how much he's proved in half a year. Next, though, he has to demonstrate slightly improved plate discipline, or manage to hold onto all this newfound power. If he continues to get to first base at such a low rate, he'll gradually lose the value he's gotten so far from stealing bases brilliantly. Since he gets so much from robbing opposing hitters of knocks, though, he can stay among these ranks even if he merely keeps going at this rate. To rise into the top five, he would have to sand off the rough edges on his approach, which seems more like a long-term hope than something he's doing this year.

10. Riley Greene, OF, Tigers
Speed makes everything else a player does well positively glow. Greene is one of those great players who can sometimes be overlooked, because speed isn't a part of their game. He's not slow, but he doesn't really steal bases, and he's a good but not game-altering defender in the outfield. At the plate, though, he can alter a game, alright.

Greene is hitting .291/.345/.530 this year, at a home park that does nothing to accentuate his power. He's strikeout-prone, but he slugs with the best of them, and has a knack for hitting uncatchable line drives even when he's not clearing walls. He also has good instincts on the bases, and has done more than slouch from station to station once he gets on. Although there are plenty of hitters with gaudier numbers, there are few tougher outs in big moments than Greene.

11. James Wood, OF, Nationals
Wood is simply a house of a human being, and he hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball. He tends to hit a lot of grounders, and his hardest contact in the air usually goes to the opposite field. Nonetheless, he's on pace for 40 home runs in his age-22 season. He controls the zone well, too. He's already a merely acceptable corner outfielder, and might end up at first base or DH, but the bat is good enough to make you not care that much. Think "left-handed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.," and you're in the right neighborhood.

12. Hunter Greene, RHP, Reds
Unlike Skenes, Greene does a lousy job of obscuring the risks associated with being a hard-throwing young starter. However, like Skenes, Greene can become the entire story of a game, and does so on a semi-regular basis when he's able to take the mound. His fastball-slider combination is one of the best the game has seen this decade, and he's shown impressive pitchability, rather than leaning always on sheer velocity. He's not as durable as you'd like a roster cornerstone to be, but they don't make pitchers like him who are, anymore.

13. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
It seems like Langford's profile is so stout as to be boring. He has plus plate discipline. He has plus power. He plays plus defense. He's a plus baserunner. In no category is he elite, though when he was drafted, his tools had scouts drooling. His rapid ascent to join the Rangers proved that polished college hitters are the best investments at the top of a draft class, but also served as a reminder that guys who seem to break the game itself in college fit right in with the Ian Happs of the world once they reach the extraordinary level of competition that is MLB. That said, as Langford makes adjustments, he's flashed the ability to be an explosive player, too. He's a tremendous blend of high floor and high ceiling.

14. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Team from Outside Atlanta on Purpose
Somehow, Schwellenbach never appeared on a preseason top-100 prospect list, at least among the major outlets. That already looks a bit embarrassing, for all involved. He's blossomed immediately into a six-pitch starter, who pounds the zone relentlessly and throws 97 with the fastball. In 36 starts, he's eclipsed 220 innings and has a 3.31 ERA. He strikes out almost one in four batters and walks fewer than one in 20. As with all pitchers, you have to worry about health and durability, but he's been incredibly good so far.

15. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
Small guy. Doesn't hit it all that hard. Fast, but not much of a basestealer. Why, then, does Winn make this list? He's an excellent defensive shortstop, is why. He's good at making contact and using the big part of the field, is why. He's still only 23 and is learning at the big-league level. Winn probably isn't a future superstar, but he's a first-division regular right now, and there are few players in this age bracket I would more confidently forecast to stay at that level or above it for the next 10 years. He'll have to shore up his offensive game some to emerge as a star, but Winn is a really helpful player already and has lots of ways to maintain that standing.

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That's my best estimate of how these players shake out, for now. Crow-Armstrong is already in excellent company, but because he has so many ways to affect the game at this point, he could yet reach another echelon. In the meantime, this helps make clear that it would be hugely expensive to extend him—but also how fortunate the Cubs are to have over five years of team control remaining, whether they succeed in extending him or not.

 

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

Normal caveats(lists are made up and don't matter, etc) aside, putting EDLC and especially Chourio that high(and above PCA) is bonkers.  EDLC's ceiling has been greatly exaggerated by a season long prank from OAA last year, and Chourio is trending like Aldi-brand PCA more or less across the board right now.  And I'm not even overly bullish on PCA compared to most(don't think an extension is a great idea, expect offensive regression, etc)

[muntjack]

James Wood much higher on my imaginary list.