I Love You All, but Shut Up About Michael Busch and Left-Handed Pitchers

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Often, in life, we encounter moments when there's a real problem afoot. We have an issue, affecting ourselves and/or people we care about deeply. Alas, we can't bear to admit the nature or the scope of that problem to ourselves. It's too dangerous. Maybe that problem is so inextricably tied to a relationship we value that we know that relationship would need to end in order for the problem to be solved. Maybe the problem is so all-consuming that if we fully examined it, we would never be able to face it and solve it. We have to shrink or distract from it, just to make it manageable or to direct our energy in more helpful directions.

I think that's what you're doing right now, Cubs fans. I hear a somewhat baffling amount of talk about starting Michael Busch at first base even when the opponent schedules a left-handed starting pitcher, and I guess I vaguely understand why you're saying the same thing so often—but I also think you're deflecting a little bit. I think that, in a season in which the Cubs are a happy team with vibes as good as their 40-25 record, you might just want to rock the boat as little as possible, and this seems the right way.

But here's the thing: What you really want is for Justin Turner to start actually hitting, or to be shown the door. Turner, 40, is hitting a decrepit .211/.302/.267, and it's hard to watch a slow-footed, defensively marginal first baseman hit that miserably. (It's a much more tolerable .267/.321/.370 since May 1, but for now, let's pretend Turner is actually as bad as his overall line looks.) What the Cubs need is a right-handed first baseman who hits more like .270/.340/.420, or so, as long as they're protected from righty hurlers. What they need is a stronger bench, overall.

What they do not need—what no one, least of all Busch, needs—is more Michael Busch against left-handed pitchers. Some fans have pointed to his sparkling overall line this year (.276/.374/.515) as evidence that he's ready to play every day, regardless of the handedness of opposing hurlers. In so doing, though, they overlook two key factors:

1. Busch has enjoyed the platoon advantage in 85.9% of his plate appearances this year, up from 82.4% last year; and
2. He's a .229/.306/.328 career hitter against lefties, and this year, those numbers are a nightmarish .148/.281/.185.

Last season, Busch did have relatively small platoon splits, for a lefty batter. However, he was leaving some value on the table against right-handed hurlers by constructing a swing and approach that worked against both types of pitcher. This year, he's gotten much better against righties, at the same time getting worse against lefties.

Some of that is rooted in concrete adjustments. As Busch has modified his swing to cover a hole up and away, he's become a bit more susceptible to the ball down and in. He's moved slightly closer to the plate and slightly closed his stance, giving him a better angle to see the ball out of the hand of a right-handed pitcher but a tougher one from lefties. He's been more pull-conscious, which tends to shape one's swing more toward hitting opposite-handed pitching.

There's also a simple matter of hitters like Busch benefiting from not having to face lefties, in the way they can prepare and stay locked in against righties. Busch's swing is fairly steep, both in his tilt of the barrel into the hitting zone and the arc of that barrel relative to the ground as he passes through the majority of that zone. Hitters like that will invariably struggle against same-handed pitchers, unless they also maintain something of a secondary, separate swing—almost like a switch-hitter. Maintaining their two swings, or the two versions of their one swing, is extra work, and one thing can interfere with the other. The more different a hitter's swing against lefties and against righties must be, the harder it is to do the one at which one is better if one is also frequently forced to do the one at which they're worse.

Busch benefits disproportionately from not seeing lefties. He shouldn't be installed in the lineup more often against them. Instead, the Cubs should work hard either to help Turner continue his recent improvements, or to replace him with a more reliable righty batter who can man first base. The team does need an extra ingredient against southpaws. It's just not Busch, so please, stop calling for more of him in the sauce.

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[ryanrc]

I fully agree that the real issue is Justin Turner's terrible start; I ranted about it at length on the blog during Spring Training. I also complained that he's a minor liability in defense. However, given that we are stuck with a 6 million dollar "investment", there's some upside potential of keeping him. 

He's the team's internal mascot this year, Disrupting that role has a real cost. Only replace him if there's a clear, obvious answer. Still, Turner's recent .700 OPS is good enough, if he stays above average with RISP and specializes in killing lefties.  

My bigger head scratcher is why the team loves Vidal Brujan... he inspires little confidence in me. He's as generic of a utility guy as possible. I get using him for the first 60 games to keep the prospects busy in the minors; however, we still need to break the seal and get some guys up. 

I'd much rather use the 26th roster spot on prospects from here on out. Berti is as good as any infield utility guy in the league, and I hope he gets some time to give Hoerner and Swanson some minor days off. But we really don't need an outfield utility guy AT ALL with Suzuki on the team. It would be nice to have one lefty slugger on board with a serviceable glove, who can meaningfully pinch vs righties - basically, the Gage Workman role that didn't work out. Swanson, in particular, is showing the need for platoon help.     
 

[ryanrc]

interesting concept for an article: "what are the lucky upside factors that attract teams to invest in Brujan?"

[Layoutman]

There is a simple solution, Jonathon Long is raking @ AAA Des Moines. Have had the pleasure to watch him live 3 times so far this year. The kid's bat is ready. He has played 1B/3B/OF.  Outside of 1st base his defense is below average. 

Compare Moises Ballesteros batting stats vs Jonathon Long. The results may surprise you. 

The issue with both Ballesteros and Long is they are not great athletes. Finding a position other than 1B/DH is hard. Ballesteros at 5'8" has no business playing 1B. Long at 5'11" batting right-handed playing 1B is not exactly optimal. Both of these guys bat's are ready though. Think it will be easier to find a position for Long than it will be for Moises.

Berti / Brujan - redundant - waste of a bench slot.   

[Development DL]

Good to know their are edges ( RH Bat ) , that have a chance to be modified internally. 
While continuing to maximize an ascending bat , like Busch . 
 

Thanks for the detailed bio mechanical references .