I Love You All, but Shut Up About Michael Busch and Left-Handed Pitchers

Often, in life, we encounter moments when there's a real problem afoot. We have an issue, affecting ourselves and/or people we care about deeply. Alas, we can't bear to admit the nature or the scope of that problem to ourselves. It's too dangerous. Maybe that problem is so inextricably tied to a relationship we value that we know that relationship would need to end in order for the problem to be solved. Maybe the problem is so all-consuming that if we fully examined it, we would never be able to face it and solve it. We have to shrink or distract from it, just to make it manageable or to direct our energy in more helpful directions.

I think that's what you're doing right now, Cubs fans. I hear a somewhat baffling amount of talk about starting Michael Busch at first base even when the opponent schedules a left-handed starting pitcher, and I guess I vaguely understand why you're saying the same thing so often—but I also think you're deflecting a little bit. I think that, in a season in which the Cubs are a happy team with vibes as good as their 40-25 record, you might just want to rock the boat as little as possible, and this seems the right way.

But here's the thing: What you really want is for Justin Turner to start actually hitting, or to be shown the door. Turner, 40, is hitting a decrepit .211/.302/.267, and it's hard to watch a slow-footed, defensively marginal first baseman hit that miserably. (It's a much more tolerable .267/.321/.370 since May 1, but for now, let's pretend Turner is actually as bad as his overall line looks.) What the Cubs need is a right-handed first baseman who hits more like .270/.340/.420, or so, as long as they're protected from righty hurlers. What they need is a stronger bench, overall.

What they do not need—what no one, least of all Busch, needs—is more Michael Busch against left-handed pitchers. Some fans have pointed to his sparkling overall line this year (.276/.374/.515) as evidence that he's ready to play every day, regardless of the handedness of opposing hurlers. In so doing, though, they overlook two key factors:

1. Busch has enjoyed the platoon advantage in 85.9% of his plate appearances this year, up from 82.4% last year; and
2. He's a .229/.306/.328 career hitter against lefties, and this year, those numbers are a nightmarish .148/.281/.185.

Last season, Busch did have relatively small platoon splits, for a lefty batter. However, he was leaving some value on the table against right-handed hurlers by constructing a swing and approach that worked against both types of pitcher. This year, he's gotten much better against righties, at the same time getting worse against lefties.

Some of that is rooted in concrete adjustments. As Busch has modified his swing to cover a hole up and away, he's become a bit more susceptible to the ball down and in. He's moved slightly closer to the plate and slightly closed his stance, giving him a better angle to see the ball out of the hand of a right-handed pitcher but a tougher one from lefties. He's been more pull-conscious, which tends to shape one's swing more toward hitting opposite-handed pitching.

There's also a simple matter of hitters like Busch benefiting from not having to face lefties, in the way they can prepare and stay locked in against righties. Busch's swing is fairly steep, both in his tilt of the barrel into the hitting zone and the arc of that barrel relative to the ground as he passes through the majority of that zone. Hitters like that will invariably struggle against same-handed pitchers, unless they also maintain something of a secondary, separate swing—almost like a switch-hitter. Maintaining their two swings, or the two versions of their one swing, is extra work, and one thing can interfere with the other. The more different a hitter's swing against lefties and against righties must be, the harder it is to do the one at which one is better if one is also frequently forced to do the one at which they're worse.

Busch benefits disproportionately from not seeing lefties. He shouldn't be installed in the lineup more often against them. Instead, the Cubs should work hard either to help Turner continue his recent improvements, or to replace him with a more reliable righty batter who can man first base. The team does need an extra ingredient against southpaws. It's just not Busch, so please, stop calling for more of him in the sauce.