Is Kyle Tucker Working Through Bad Luck Or Something Deeper?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

If it looks like the Chicago Cubs are struggling to score runs, your eyes are not deceiving you. 

After hanging 5.9 runs per game in March and April, they're down to 4.9 in May. After reaching base at the league's second-highest clip (.341) during the season's first month-plus, they're sitting 22nd thus far in May (.295). They were the league's third-best team in March and April by wRC+ (124). In May, they're ranked 15th (100). 

Now, it's not as if the Cubs suddenly became a merely average offense just because the calendar flipped, and there's a sizeable gap in the sample between 31 games of March and April and the dozen they've played in May. There's clearly a struggle happening right now, though, given that they've dropped a run per game and are scraping across any run production they can find of late.

Central to the team's offensive production is Kyle Tucker, which likely means that central to the team's current "struggle" is... Kyle Tucker. After blazing out of the gate and looking like an early candidate for National League MVP, Tucker has sort of fallen off in May. The only question is whether this is cause for concern or if Tucker is simply confronting the ebb and flow of baseball. 

Tucker's first five weeks were stellar. He turned in a 158 wRC+, reached base at a .386 clip, and ISO'd .270. He was lifting the ball in the air almost 75 percent of the time (between flyballs and line drives), which worked in tandem with a 43.8 Hard-Hit%. He walked (15.2%) more than he struck out (12.4%). Even being pinned down slightly by a .276 BABIP, he was able to be the driver of the team's elite run production in the season's first month. 

May hasn't been as kind to Tucker. He's hitting a mere .217. His groundball rate has spiked to 42.5%, after lingering around 25 percent in the opening month. And while we recently discussed the contributions he was still able to make in the midst of such struggles, it does feel like those have become fewer, given the Cubs' need to scratch runs across rather than operate in a smoother, easier offensive fashion in matters of scoring runs.

So should we start to worry about the state of Tucker's offensive game? Not necessarily, long-term, given his status among the game's top hitters. But is there something plaguing him at present that we should worry about?

The short (and perhaps obvious, given the aforementioned status) answer is no. 

Sure, there are a couple of figures that have dropped (or, in the case of groundballs, risen) dramatically. But his wRC+ is holding steady at 120 for the month (148 for the year). He's hitting the ball hard with more regularity this month (45.0 Hard-Hit%) and has continued the trend of walking more than he's striking out. He isn't approaching the zone any differently, and there isn't any discernible difference in the types of pitches at which he's swinging. 

To say nothing of the fact that his percentile distribution still looks like this: 

Instead, it looks like what's unfolding for Tucker is a matter of bad luck, above all. His BABIP this month has plummeted to .189. That's not a unique situation in the larger context of the team, given that the Cubs' .234 collective BABIP ranks 29th this month. If there was a telling trend within his approach or some sort of change in his ability to generate quality contact, maybe we'd be having a different discussion. As it is, the struggles of Tucker appear to be entirely outcome-based. 

The unfortunate reality is that it's part of the game. You're going to have runs like this where things just aren't falling. Elite as Kyle Tucker may be, he isn't immune to such streaks. As long as the underlying data suggests he's working in the same fashion, it's just a waiting game until things start to fall for him. 

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[CubUgly]

I'm not really worried  -  I think he'll be fine but whatever the issue is - it's not bad luck.  Lot's of weak contact lately.   Not like he's hitting nothing but screamers right at people.  Hell the double last night was on a check swing!!

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

I'm not really worried  -  I think he'll be fine but whatever the issue is - it's not bad luck.  Lot's of weak contact lately.   Not like he's hitting nothing but screamers right at people.  Hell the double last night was on a check swing!!

The weak contact thing seems anecdotal. Like, yes, the double was a check swing, but the double play ball was over 100 mph and had an expected BA of like .630. That stuff evens out.

Ground ball rate has spiked, which explains the slug dropping 80ish points. But hitting more GBs and less FBs would typically help your BABIP, and it's down 76 points. Ultimately, it's 12 games vs 30 games, there's going to be a lot of noise, but the stats you can lean more heavily on (exit velo metrics, K/BB rates are all very healthy). Slight mechanical tweak to get the ball back up in the air and we should expect him getting back to elite instead of just very good.

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

The weak contact thing seems anecdotal. Like, yes, the double was a check swing, but the double play ball was over 100 mph and had an expected BA of like .630. That stuff evens out.

 

To a point but the 100 mph ground ball has been much more the exception.  There really has been more weak ground balls during the tough stretch.

 

But again, I'm really not worried, just saying I don't think bad luck is the overriding issue here or even close to it. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubUgly said:

To a point but the 100 mph ground ball has been much more the exception.  There really has been more weak ground balls during the tough stretch.

 

But again, I'm really not worried, just saying I don't think bad luck is the overriding issue here or even close to it. 

The batted ball profile in those numbers I included say otherwise though. Hard hit balls are a flat 1/3rd of his output, soft is down, medium is up. It could just be/probably is just bucketing noise. But that 20% soft hit % in April would have been by far the highest of his career. His current overall 17.6% still is, but it's actually trending in the right direction. 

Someone smarter/more connected than me can find like, rolling average exit velocity or specific data on GBs, but I just don't see it borne out in the actual numbers. 

[JBears79]

I mean if this is what a Kyle Tucker slump looks like. Sign me up because despite his weakish contact lately, he's still creating runs and opportunities for the Cubs.

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

The batted ball profile in those numbers I included say otherwise though. Hard hit balls are a flat 1/3rd of his output, soft is down, medium is up. It could just be/probably is just bucketing noise. But that 20% soft hit % in April would have been by far the highest of his career. His current overall 17.6% still is, but it's actually trending in the right direction. 

Someone smarter/more connected than me can find like, rolling average exit velocity or specific data on GBs, but I just don't see it borne out in the actual numbers. 

hell, beats me then, I've seen almost every at bat in his downturn and typically I make a point of noting it when a ball is hit hard but still out.  I remember saying it the double play last night but not many other times at all.  I was just going by the eye test.  What is considered "medium"?  High 80's to low 90's exit velo?  I guess I'm calling the medium contact soft?   The game Tuesday seemed to be nothing but slow dribblers for ground outs but maybe they were medium dribblers?

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

hell, beats me then, I've seen almost every at bat in his downturn and typically I make a point of noting it when a ball is hit hard but still out.  I remember saying it the double play last night but not many other times at all.  I was just going by the eye test.  What is considered "medium"?  High 80's to low 90's exit velo?  I guess I'm calling the medium contact soft?   The game Tuesday seemed to be nothing but slow dribblers for ground outs but maybe they were medium dribblers?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-tucker-663656?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-statcast&season=2025

This is as close as I've gotten to that type of granular detail, do with it what you will (and you aren't wrong on Tuesday night). When I was reading through that, I was trying to keep in mind that his average exit velocity this year is 90.6 mph (and 91.1 mph last year), and I figured anything in the single digits or negative were ground balls.