Are the Cubs Evolving How They Develop Young Arms?

[Jason Ross]

The Cubs have made pitching infrastructure a key component of their rebuild over the last few years, hiring pitching gurus such as Craig Breslow (once monikered the "smartest man in baseball") and now, Tyler Zombro. While success has come at times, they've still fallen a little short of what their goal has been. However, we may be seeing that change. 

Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN/USA TODAY NETWORK

If you read my article looking at Cade Horton recently (you can check it out here), I wrote that after Horton struggled a bit in the fourth inning of his outing on Wednesday, I was convinced his day was done. It's probably important to give some context as to why I was so convinced that he was done and it's because last year, I'm fully convinced he would have been done. Over the last handful of years, the Cubs have played it very conservatively with their young starting pitching in the minor leagues. They have  limited the overall pitch counts for their starters and certainly limit the total amount of innings as well. 

We only need to look at how the Cubs handled their top pitching prospect last season. Horton, coming off a very strong 2023 campaign, was clearly being limited at the start of the season, going no longer than the fourth inning until his fourth start of the season. None of those starts saw Horton make it to the third time through the order, and none saw Horton face more than 15 hitters. It wasn't as if the righty was getting knocked around—he went more than 11 innings, struck out 1`2 and had only given up two runs—and it wasn't as if he hadn't faced 20+ hitters the year prior. The Cubs were clearly handling Horton with a bit of bubble wrap at the start of the year, and I'm not sure you can blame them; Horton is that good and you don't want to see him hurt. 

It's this reason why I was surprised to see Horton come back out for the fifth inning in his latest start. He had just given up two hard hit balls, and he looked a little gassed. On top of that, he had had faced 15 hitters, and had thrown slightly over 60 pitches total. All of these were tell-tale signs of the past that Cade Horton would be done. Yet, there he was, toeing the rubber in the fifth inning.

Fast forward to Thursday night. I've got the South Bend Cubs and the Myrtle Beach Pelicans split-screened on my computer to watch starting pitchers Jaxon Wiggins and Nazier Mule (I'm a real prospect sicko). Both are looking good, cruising through their first few innings. Wiggins is through four innings, he's struck out six, walked just two; he's looked great. This is a fine place to end his night, frankly. Then... Wiggins comes back out. He struck out another hitter. I immediately pulled up his FanGraphs page to check a hunch: Wiggins wasn't allowed to face 17 hitters in a game through his first 12 appearances at all last year, and yet he's has faced 17 or more twice already this season. That's the second time I was convinced a pitcher was done for the night only to come back for one more.

Just a few moments later, I switch my attention back to the Myrtle Beach stream to put eyes back on Mule. Once again, the Cubs' young prospect had looked great through four innings and, akin to the other two, was allowed to come back out for a fifth inning. Mule, unlike the other two, struggled a bit. He walked a hitter. He made an error. He balked. Three unearned runs score. But, he's not yanked at the first sign of struggle. Instead, he's allowed to work through much of it. Eventually, he's taken out once he hits 80 pitches and is removed just shy of completing the fifth, but regardless of the outcome, it was notable. As they say, "twice is a coincidence, but three times is a trend". 

All three of these pitchers share something in common; they've all had Tommy John surgery. As we have seen, in 2024 the Cubs treated a post-TJS Horton with baby gloves at the start of the season, limiting him to just 15 hitters faced for a while, and this was multiple years removed. Compare that to how the Cubs have handled Mule; he's faced the lineup a third time twice already. Cade Horton, their to -pitching prospect, has been granted a chance to face 20 hitters just six times since he's been drafted and Mule has done it back-to-back this April. That's something new. That's notable.

These aren't the only pitchers who have been given extra rope, but they highlight what I believe is an evolution in how the Cubs are handling their young starting pitching. There's clearly a correlation to be found here in that the Cubs are starting to allow their young arms go a bit longer, fight through adversity a bit more, and the addition of Tyler Zombro. I'll stop short of claiming it's a causation however, but it makes logical sense that with the addition of Zombro as a "special assistant" and greater access to Tread Athletics, that the he could be behind this. 

What does this all mean? We really don't know yet. Your initial reaction may be that this is a signal that the Cubs are going to swing back into an era where starting pitchers are allowed to go longer in games at the highest level, to rack up 200 IP like they did in yesteryear. If that's your takeaway, I think you'll be disappointed. The reality is that the toothpaste is out of the tube in the regards to pitching injuries, and we're very unlikely to go backwards. 

What it could mean, however, is that the Cubs are going to trust their pitching more and give them more of an opportunity to work through their struggles. I keep going back to the fourth and fifth inning of Horton's recent start, and I was pretty sure that he was gassed and done after the fourth. He's still rounding into form, missing much of 2024, and his line of 4 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 1 ER would have been perfectly respectable. He would have ended it on a little bit of a downer, giving up hard contact and a home run, but it would have been respectable.

Instead, he gets another innings and struck out the final two hitters. Do I think those strikeouts will realistically affect his long-term development? No, they'll be a footnote in his history. But, mentally, ending the game striking out two hitters, one on an absolutely nasty slider, has to give you an added sense of confidence as you walk off the mound for the last time on the day. That could give Horton an edge in the mental game of baseball, and can give the Cubs an idea of how Horton responds to adversity. These are some things that go a bit beyond the data-driven game we have, but they still matter. 

Overall, this is probably a symptom of an evolution of how the Cubs coach, teach and handle their young arms. I doubt it will be the only thing, and it's going to be something to consistently look for as they evolve and change further as the season progresses. It might be time to stop expecting that their top prospects will be removed after four good innings and to, instead, get ready for them to come back out for a fifth. They will be given a chance to regularly challenge the order the third time through if they have earned it. They will be afforded the chance to work through their struggles. The fruits of this labor may not be immediately as noticeable as their total-batters-faced column on FanGraphs, but if I were you, I'd keep my eyes peeled for more things that standout as "different" from the past. It may just be the winds of change.

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What do you think about the Cubs' handling of their young arms? Are you worried that this could result in more injuries? Or do you think that this will help allow their pitchers to better overcome adversity? Let us know in the comment section below.

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[Bertz]

The Cubs started *really* babying pitchers coming out of the COVID year and this feels like a needed correction.  Like even Jordan Wicks, a healthy low velo starter, wouldn't see the 5th inning of games in April.

Baseball the last decade has been pulling back on both how much a guy is allowed to pitch and how often.  My guess is that the latter is far more consequential than the former.  If you look at College and Japanese baseball starters pitch once a week and still run up low triple digital pitch counts routinely.  Obviously neither is immune to injury problems but it's not exactly a bloodbath compared to MLB.

Relatedly, Jed did hire that Japanese company to consult on pitcher health this winter.  So this might be Zombro led but it might also be an infusion of some Japanese practices.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs started *really* babying pitchers coming out of the COVID year and this feels like a needed correction.  Like even Jordan Wicks, a healthy low velo starter, wouldn't see the 5th inning of games in April.

Baseball the last decade has been pulling back on both how much a guy is allowed to pitch and how often.  My guess is that the latter is far more consequential than the former.  If you look at College and Japanese baseball starters pitch once a week and still run up low triple digital pitch counts routinely.  Obviously neither is immune to injury problems but it's not exactly a bloodbath compared to MLB.

Relatedly, Jed did hire that Japanese company to consult on pitcher health this winter.  So this might be Zombro led but it might also be an infusion of some Japanese practices.

Yeah, Im not mad at all that theyve given them a bit more rope. I don't want to see Horton go 8 innings and throw 115 pitches in Iowa, but getting Mazier Mule through five once a week? I'm all here for that. 

Be careful, but they can take some of the bubble wrap off, too.