Justin Steele's Injury Highlights Cubs' Razor Thin Margin For Error

[Brian Kelder]

Justin Steele will miss time because of the same injury that he missed time with last season. He had the offseason to recover, and clearly more time will be needed. This is not good news, but it's a reflection of the Cubs' reality: their roster sits precariously on a razor's edge of success and failure.

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Despite having a deeper bench, the Cubs have several positions that lack adequate replacements if injury strikes. The bullpen has been shaky. The rotation is down two projected starters. The offense to this point has carried the team, of course, and the outlook of the season continues to be positive. It's the "what-ifs" that likely keep Jed Hoyer up at night.

What If Number 1: What if there is an injury to Justin Steele or Shota Imanaga?

I guess the answer to that will come quickly! Colin Rea was signed precisely for these moments as a swing arm. Jordan Wicks is struggling with a 1.76 WHIP in his first two starts in Iowa, Cade Horton isn't stretched out, and Chris Flexen also sports a WHIP over 1.70. There is not a pitcher in the system that can be expected to come near to Justin Steele's projected line. 

The Cubs gambled a lot of their season on Imanaga and Steele maintaining their elite level while, in Steele's case, increasing his workload. Matthew Boyd has been outstanding, also, which lessens the blow of Steele missing time. Even so, the team cannot afford to lose Steele for an extended period of time. They just weren't built to withstand his loss.

Not to pile on the Cubs spending habits, but adding pitching would have been a solid use of funds saved from dumping Cody Bellinger. They were not actively pursuing any of the high-dollar, high-production pitchers. Time will tell if this backfires.

What-If Number 2: What if Matt Shaw isn't ready?

The obvious answer is ride it out with Shaw. Gage Workman, he of the 71.4% strikeout rate, isn't ready for this level. The team is off to a tremendous start offensively, averaging the third most runs per game in baseball. Shaw is holding his own—at least in terms of getting on base (.333 OBP)—and his defense, while not great, is at least better than what Christopher Morel offered, and we can be certain he won't do a bat flip on a double to center. 

All indications are that Shaw, while not ready to be a top-shelf player, will use his unusual stance and grit to carve out a long-term role. An injury, though, would derail the Cubs here. Jon Berti is good in his role, but would likely be exposed as an everyday guy. Workman has seemingly been exposed already. But that's worrying about a hypothetical. Just relax for now and watch Shaw develop.

What-If Number 3: What if the bullpen doesn't have a single elite arm?

Tuesday's game against the Rangers was encouraging and discouraging at the same time. On the positive side, the Cubs scored ten runs, rendering any bullpen shenanigans moot. On the other hand, Julian Merryweather and Porter Hodge were dinged, and Ryan Pressly was saved by Dansby Swanson and the defense in the ninth. That's a major difference from last season, where blown saves were plentiful. The Cubs simply outran the score needed for the relievers to finish the job. 

The bargain bin often looks nice on the shelf, but reality hits soon after when the purchased item breaks or is not as useful as you had hoped. The Cubs have not found a lockdown reliever (I'll concede on Hodge if you want to argue in his favor) and their newcomers have struggled. Big-armed farmhands Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, and Luke Little will look to hone their command and reach Wrigley soon. 

Colin Rea is moving to the rotation, and two relievers have an ERA over ten at the moment. Caleb Theilbar sits over 6.00 in that stat, and Ryan Pressly's FIP sits at a ghastly 6.93. Going forward, the Cubs sorely need reliable arms. Brad Keller has been solid to start; perhaps that's the extra bridge they will need.

Once again, the payroll situation has put the Cubs on the precipice of success, but a step in the wrong direction would put them in dire straits. Here's hoping they can thread the needle this summer.

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