Maybe (Perhaps) (Possibly) We Can (Potentially) Worry (a Little Bit) About Matt Shaw

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The temptation to make more than we should out of the first few games of a new season is always strong, and when those games take place under the bright lights of an international showcase, it's even stronger. Still, one thing from the Tokyo Series does deserve a closer look.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

In the weeks leading up to the series in Japan, there was plenty of curiosity as to whether or not Matt Shaw would even make the trip. An oblique injury stalled him early in camp, allowing only six Cactus League games under his belt before the team departed Arizona. But Shaw fared well in that small sample. He notched five hits across 19 plate appearances (.313 AVG), walked three times (.421 OBP), and only struck out once. Sample size be damned, it was clearly what the team wanted to see from him before making a call on his involvement overseas.

The Cubs' intention has long been to insert Shaw as their starting third baseman. As long as he was healthy, the team likely didn't want to be down two of their infield starters. When Shaw was able to succeed with minimal adjustment across those six games, it made it an easy call. Even with the performance, though, there's an argument to be made that the absence of Nico Hoerner likely pushed Shaw not only onto the plane, but into the starting lineup.

His inclusion, in particular, gave us plenty of reason to watch the early-morning tilts, even beyond all of the fanfare. You're talking about a potential lineup fixture at a position of need making his debut. That's extremely noteworthy, in itself. The overall anticipation of the series itself gave way to our own little mini-excitement over Shaw's first official taste of MLB action. That was, of course, until the results came through. 

Shaw was able to record the first hit of his big-league career: an infield single off the glove of Jack Dreyer, which probably should have been called an error. It was, however, Shaw's only hit in the series, as he went 1-for-9 with four strikeouts. Those are just numbers, but the at-bats looked bad, too.

Here's Game 1:

And here's Game 2:

Game 1 featured (at least) something of an approach, with some pitches taken and others fouled off. Game 2 represented something of a contrast to that, as Shaw was more aggressive and whiffed at a handful of pitches inside of the strike zone. He seemed to get anxious.

Nothing here sets off alarm bells, of course. Stepping into the box for the first time against this vaunted Dodgers staff isn't a trivial challenge. In the rare instances when Shaw did make contact, though, the resulting contact was enough to generate at least a little bit of concern.

There were 539 batted balls with a launch angle over 10 degrees but an exit velo under 81 mph and a distance of under 200 feet last year. No one had more than seven. Matt Shaw already has three such batted balls.

— Matt Trueblood (@matrueblood.bsky.social) March 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM

Matt's post speaks to the main issue with Shaw in his first big-league work: he looked slow. 

In the first game, Shaw took four of the team's nine slowest swings. He owned four of the seven slowest in the second. His work combined for an xBA of just .185, and that number includes an expected batting average of .500 on a groundout in the first game. His lone hit of the series had an xBA of only .060. To say that he looked overmatched would be an understatement. 

The results aren't worrisome, but the indicators of his process might be. If he stepped in and was making quality contact (while still throwing in a few whiffs) across those nine plate appearances, you're probably feeling alright about where he's at. Instead, the bat speed and the resulting exit velocities painted a picture of a player who wasn't quite ready for the moment. 

With any prospect, you want a kind of tangible starting point following that first action. If Shaw had come out, swung at tons of junk outside the zone or taken an inordinate number of called strikes while not reaching base at all, you'd have clear adjustments to make. Had he come out on the other end of the spectrum, with consistent contact and inspiring bat speed figures, then you'd want him to find ways to build on it. Shaw looking discombobulated and slow presents a more intractable problem he now needs to solve. It isn't ideal.

Not that we're rushing to any actual panic over two games, played thousands of miles away from home. It's not that we don't think Shaw is capable of adjusting. He demonstrated an ability to do just that upon reaching each new level of the minor leagues. We certainly aren't ready to draw any bigger-picture conclusions about Shaw's major-league ability after exactly two (2) games. The slow swings might not be a lasting aspect of his game; they might just indicate that the oblique flared up again and he was being cautious. It's just something to monitor.

It's noteworthy either way. If it snowballs, one can't help but wonder how long the team will ride it out before giving him a reset in Iowa, and what the pivot looks like. We have, after all, already noted that the safety net doesn't exist. But should he head the other direction, where he quickly gains some traction, that'll also be worth dissecting. We win as viewers either way. The hope, though, is that the Cubs win as a result of what comes next for Matt Shaw.

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[CubinNY]

come on... I know you all need content, but geeze. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Player nursing an oblique injury in his MLB debut takes tentative swings, no way