3 Key Takeaways from Cubs' Opening Day Loss to Dodgers

[Matthew Trueblood]

The home nine (playing about as far from home as one can) couldn't get the job done on Tuesday, as the Cubs lost their season opener to the defending World Series champions. A few revealing and intriguing things did happen along the way, though.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Every baseball game has little clues within it—little things that tell you something important about the much larger truths you're really chasing, like which teams are good and what matters in the sport. Even a game with a pageant atmosphere and a bunch of players still only half-ready can do that, and on Tuesday morning (Chicago time), we got to see the Cubs play a game that mattered. Here are a few of the clues we might have gleaned therefrom.

1. Jon Berti Runs Hot—Maybe Too Much So.
No Cubs position player had a more eventful first game than Berti. It was clear that he had the adrenaline that should come with this kind of event coursing through him—but some of the effects of that were unfortunately messy.

The Cubs grabbed an early 1-0 lead, but in the top of the fifth, a ground ball to third helped turn a small Dodgers rally into the winning one. On a could-be, maybe, double-play ball, Matt Shaw made a clean pick and good throw to second, but Berti (trying to do too much; the twin killing was not going to happen, anyway) overthrew Michael Busch badly. That brought home Shohei Ohtani with the go-ahead run, and since the ball went out of play, Teoscar Hernández was awarded second base. He came around to score on a single to widen the lead to 3-1.

Berti sought his revenge in the bottom half of the inning, swinging aggressively enough against Yoshinobu Yamamoto to generate a 111.3-mph batted ball. That was not only the fastest by anyone in this game, but the fastest a ball has left Berti's bat since 2019. Alas, it was a ground ball, and turned into a relatively easy out. It's good to see Berti can generate that kind of jolt, in his mid-30s, but he'll need to get a little air under those to make them matter more in the future.

Later in the game, a running Blake Treinen sinker hit Berti on the hand, which seemed to spike his adrenaline again. He stole second base on the first pitch of the ensuing at-bat, hungry to come around and halve the Dodger lead. He was stranded there, but his spunk was nice to see. He also made a fine defensive play crossing to the shortstop side of second in the late innings, partially making up for the critical error earlier. Berti looks like a valuable source of heat for this team, but will have to make good decisions in the field, the batter's box, and the basepath to maximize his utility as their utility man.

2. Ben Brown is Either Trading Some Velocity for a New Fastball Shape... or Has Just Lost Velocity.
After Shota Imanaga shut the Dodgers out and allowed no hits (although four walks) in four innings, Ben Brown took over. The Dodgers touched him for those three runs and drew three walks over what turned out to be 2 2/3 innings, but Brown did strike out five and induce a game-high 14 swings and misses.

The good news is that Brown, who seems to have slightly cleaned up his mechanics and raised his arm angle this year, looks healthy and benefited from a change to the shapes of his famous fastball-curve combination. Here's what his movement chart looked like in the game against the Brewers last May, when he struck out 10 and allowed no hits in seven innings.

Now, here's the same chart for Tuesday's outing.

According to Baseball Savant, Brown's fastball averaged two more inches of induced vertical break than it had last year. That's very good; he needs that. Last year, despite his great velocity and extension, the reality was that Brown's fastball tended not to stump hitters. It was about where they expected it to be when it reached the plate. A bit more hop on it could be a big plus.

With his subtly altered release point, Brown also has less arm-side run on the fastball and a little bit more glove-side movement on his curve, which remains a tight and firm but versatile second weapon. Intentional or not, this change in his pitch shapes is interesting. It's even encouraging.

It will have to make up, then, for the discouraging news, which is: Brown is down a tick or so from the velocity he boasted last year. He was missing some velocity all spring, but you could tell yourself then that it was a matter of missing adrenaline. In an international regular-season opener against some of the best players in the game, though, he was still missing that heat. If he consciously traded it for a better chance to stay healthy and these improved pitch shapes, that's fine, but it's still a sacrifice. If he's just plain missing that extra oomph, he's going to be diminished this season. He's not a pitcher who can live far below his customary level of power.

3. The Heart of the Order Wasn't Good Enough, but the Bottom Third Was Exciting.
It's just one game. Let's call it a safe bet that Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Matt Shaw will produce fairly well over the long haul. On Tuesday, though, they were the de facto bottom of the lineup, going 0-for-15 (plus Justin Turner's 0-1 pinch-hitting for Busch) and forestalling any meaningful rallies. 

On the other hand, the guys at the bottom of the order made some interesting things happen. Miguel Amaya not only had the RBI double that accounted for the Cubs' only run, but reached 80 mph on a swing that resulted in a fifth-inning groundout. Amaya isn't short on bat speed in general, but he only had 13 swings faster than that one last season. He's coming out of the gates showing that he still remembers how he consolidated his skills in the wake of his big lower-half mechanical change last summer.

The other rookie who altered their swing last summer, Pete Crow-Armstrong, had one of the only two swings to top Amaya's for bat speed in the game, at 80.5 mph. (Unsurprisingly, the one who exceeded both of them was a Shohei Ohtani swing.) Crow-Armstrong swung faster than that just five times in 2024, and none of those came after he changed to a leg kick in the second half. 

He's quieted that leg kick back down this spring, and he's still far too twitchy with it. He's still not making good swing decisions. Being dangerous in the box is crucial, though, and Crow-Armstrong showed he's ready to be that way in 2025.

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The Cubs get another crack at the depleted Dodgers Wednesday morning, and a split in this series would be a perfectly acceptable outcome. Losing the first game put a bit of a damper on the day, but even in that contest, we got to see some things that point us toward a clearer understanding of the season ahead for the team.

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[Jason Ross]

I hadn't been paying attention to Brown's velo today, and seeing this, I've kind of had to change some of my thinking on some other things. I had been under the impression that the Tokyo Dome's gun had been maybe riding hot. Boyd, Imanaga, and Yamamoto all had fastball velos up 1-2 mph from last year - seeing that Brown was down makes me think that maybe it's not hot and that's some development in all four pitcher's offerings. Or maybe they were a bit amped. 

If there's a positive on the middle of the order and Shaw, his first PA was pretty solid. Battled off some two strike pitches, and while the EV of 80mph isn't sexy, his hit up the middle had an xBA of .500 - the Dodgers had him shaded well. Could have easily had his first MLB hit there, even if only a single. 

[Bertz]

The Brown stuff is really interesting.  His raw spin rate was up from last year, while normally within a player spin and move in lockstep.  So my guess is that velo loss was a conscious tradeoff for the higher spin and more optimal movement.  I know the Stuff models have been surprisingly tepid on him, so we'll see if this has an impact. 

In the short term I'm worried about what it does to his command.  40% of pitches in the zone isn't going to cut it.  He hasn't pitched in a real game in 12 days, and clearly the environment was amped, so maybe it's not tied to his stuff.  But last night when I went to bed I wanted Brown to win the 5th starter spot, now I'm thinking 3-4 starts at Iowa wouldn't be the worst thing.