Jed Hoyer And Failure To Work Effectively In The Margins

[Brian Kelder]

It's been well chronicled that Jed Hoyer might be on his last gasp as a Cub after 13 seasons of gainful employment. While he was tasked with an unpopular teardown and complete rebuild, the results have not been there. Even if the team makes the playoffs as a division champion, there are little mistakes that deserve a closer look before signs an extension.

Image courtesy of © Jon Durr-Imagn Images

The first margin Jed Hoyer struggles to fill is which prospects to trade. In obtaining Kyle Tucker, he traded Cam Smith, one of the few prospects in the system with true star potential. Smith is competing this preseason for a starting job in Houston less than a year after being drafted. If Tucker is not retained, this trade will haunt the Cubs for years. Michael Busch was another key acquisition but came at a steep prospect cost: Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris are both now top 100 prospects. Hope has particular helium as one of the top ten guys in some publications. 

These trades have value for the big league team, but Hoyer has not correctly identified which prospects to keep and which to dangle in trades. If Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith reach their pedigree, this could be like the Astros dealing Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson or (gasp) the Cubs dealing Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Other teams seem to have scouted the Cubs more effectively than the Cubs have self-scouted. Of course, we'll have to see how it plays out, but prospect rankings have not been kind to the Cubs' decision-making process.

The bullpen is another area the Cubs have not done well on the cheap. Jed has followed the same blueprint this offseason: cheap arms on short deals. At this point, the closer is Ryan Pressly, who has declining metrics; Porter Hodge, who somehow found control after struggling with walks in the minors; reclamation former prospect Nate Pearson, fringe reliever Eli Morgan; senior citizens Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar; and a bunch of prospects who throw hard but have no idea where it's going (Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, etc.) The question is if the bullpen is truly deeper than 2024.

It is not. There are more arms, sure. The arms are just not high-quality ones. Once again, the Cubs will throw relievers at the wall and see which ones stick. This is fraught with risk, and a repeat performance of 2023 and 2024 is not just possible; it could be seen as probable. Jed's strategy of building a bullpen is hazardous and not sustainable year to year. We can only hope this year is an on year for the Cub's stable of unproven relievers.

On the bench, Hoyer once again is taking chances. Justin Turner, on paper, is a good signing, but at age 40, we need to remember that Father Time will be knocking on the door sooner rather than later. Gage Workman would be a cost-effective infield backup if his bat can translate from Double-A to the majors. Vidal Brujan is another cheap but uninspiring option. 

For years, the Cubs have struggled to identify quality bench players. They may have enough this season, but it certainly is a risk. Another area of the Cubs to monitor is this group. It has the makings of a solid group, but based on Jed's record, confidence from this vantage point is low (Tre Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Nick Madrigal come to mind).

Jed Hoyer is not terrible at his job. To this point, he has not hit on the moves that his reduced budget requires him to make. If this trend turns around, we're in for a fun season in Wrigley Field. If not, we can look forward to a revamped front office when the season ends.

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[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Brian Kelder said:

If Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith reach their pedigree, this could be like the Astros dealing Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson or (gasp) the Cubs dealing Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio.

I don't think anyones 'pedigree' is 'Hall of Fame Baseball Player', and beyond that, Broglio generated -1.6 wins and Andersen pitched 15 games for the Red Sox, think Kyle Tucker, even in one year, should comfortable outpace those amounts. But yeah, other than that. 

[Rcal10]

While I agree he could have done a better job and did make mistakes, the argument of giving up prospects for Tucker and Busch as a bad move by him is ridiculous. First of all, none of those guys he gave up have done anything yet. Assuming they will be stars is really taking a leap of faith. And even if they do become good players, the Cubs did get Busch for 6 years of control and Tucker this year. They also have the entire year to let him play in Chicago and hopefully sign him long term. Teams trade prospects for proven talent all the time. If he is going to be criticized for that trade shouldn’t he be praised for getting PCA for Baez? How about for even drafting Smith in the first place. Or trading for Wesneski and Paredes to actually have players the Astros might want. Same with Hope. He was an 11th round pick that the Cubs used in a trade to get their everyday first baseman with 6 years of control. He has made a lot of mistakes. I hate that they still have $25M - 30M before getting to the LT line. I think he wasted too much time considering Bregman. I would have liked to have seen a better pitcher signed instead of Rea. In years past I would have rather seen better use of money. As I said, he did a lot of things wrong. I just don’t think the examples you gave are good. I also think you can say the same thing about every GM/president of baseball ops  who has this job. Jed is not the best. But he isn’t as bad as some make him out to be. Just like everyone with his job, he makes mistakes and good moves. 

[Big EZ]

It is actually really long odds that two of the prospects the Cubs traded would be two of the hottest in the game right now. Cam Smith and Zyhir Hope do have star potential upside (and Jackson Ferris has also been leaping up prospect rankings) and since the Cubs traded them they have all been taking off. That being said, Michael Busch had a solid rookie year with the Cubs at a position they desperately needed and Kyle Tucker is the superstar they have needed for years. If Jed can re-sign Tucker (which will make or break this team and possibly Jed's Cubs tenure as president) and Busch continues to improve and develop, then these trades will go down as positive moves for the Cubbies.