Cubs' Suddenly Superb Pitching Depth Will Force Tough Choices, While Hitters Have Some Space

[Matthew Trueblood]

The roster crunch is on in Cubs camp, but it's only affecting one half of the team.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

It's beginning to feel inevitable that the Cubs will lose someone they really like from the pitching staff by the end of camp. They'll do everything they can to cultivate and maintain depth, because injuries will intrude, and being able to pivot to desirable fallback plans depends on having held on to as many such hurlers as possible. Right now, though, they have 11 pitchers who look likely to start the season healthy and are locks to make the roster if they do:

Starting Rotation:

• Justin Steele
• Shota Imanaga
• Jameson Taillon
• Matthew Boyd
• Colin Rea

Bullpen

• Ryan Pressly
• Porter Hodge
• Ryan Brasier
• Caleb Thielbar
• Julian Merryweather
• Tyson Miller

That only leaves two open slots, although the roster rules surrounding the team's trip to Tokyo to open the regular season will give them a few weeks to fudge it and hold onto as many as five candidates for those jobs. Even if we assume that Javier Assad will begin the year on the injured list and be handled carefully while he nurses an oblique strain, the list of pitchers trying to make a claim on those two jobs is almost 20 players long.

• Keegan Thompson
• Brad Keller
• Phil Bickford
• Ben Brown
• Cody Poteet
• Nate Pearson
• Eli Morgan
• Luke Little
• Daniel Palencia
• Jack Neely
• Caleb Kilian
• Ethan Roberts
• Gavin Hollowell
• Ben Heller
• Brooks Kriske
• Trevor Richards
• Brandon Hughes

A few weeks ago, I would have said Pearson and Morgan were virtual locks to make the team, and neither has really done anything to hurt their stock this spring. It's just that, for instance, Keller showed up pumping 96 snd touching 98 with his fastball, and the Cubs can't keep him if they don't add him to the team right away. The same will be true for Thompson or Bickford, so the team will have to give them at least some small tiebreaker if everyone keeps pitching well—and that's mostly what's happened, over the first six games of Cactus League play. There's some chance Thompson would clear waivers, so he might be the one the team tries to sneak through if it comes to that.

The Much Less Heated Competition to Be Bench Player No. 4
Tuesday was a good day for Vidal Bruján, who turned on a ball and crushed a no-doubt game-tying home run in the fifth inning.

 

The slightly Sammy Sosa-esque hop and skip out of the batter's box is a nice touch, since Bruján was seen on camera talking to Sosa in the dugout before the long ball. It's a strange but wonderful thing, seeing Sosa in that setting already, giving tips aplenty to hitters between at-bats, and while not even he is going to turn Bruján into a true slugger, there might be something important to unlock here.

In 551 swings tracked by Statcast since the middle of 2023, Bruján only has one that exceeded 76.1 miles per hour of bat speed—one, and, not really. That one seems to have been misread, because it's 6 mph faster than his max otherwise and it doesn't look anything like that on video.

Having one of the lowest average swing speeds in the majors is one thing. Not even being able (or willing?) to cut it loose and get to the dangerous bands of swing speed when the situation dictates it is quite another. Compare Bruján to Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, of the Brewers—two of the game's slower swingers, on average, each slower than Bruján by a bit—and you can see the difference.

Bruján might simply be short on the strength or athletic explosiveness required to swing any faster than he has, but given his former prospect sheen and his age, that feels unlikely. If (whether through a rejiggered offseason regimen, training and instruction from the Cubs, or one magical conversation with Sosa) he can tap into even that slice of Turang's and Frelick's bat speed that exists out to the right end of his current distribution, his value proposition changes in a hurry. We don't have Statcast data for the homer Tuesday, but whenever Bruján plays in Statcast-covered games, watch his bat speeds. It looks like he's found some.

Gage Workman is Bruján's competition for the final bench spot, though they could both start the season on the roster now that Matt Shaw's oblique has created some uncertainty about him for the early going. He's flashed plenty of tools already, but it was a subtler skill that stood out Tuesday. Workman stayed back nicely on an offspeed 1-2 pitch and pulled a sharp grounder through the hole between the second baseman and the bag. With his frame, his recent performance record (he slugged .550 after Jul. 1 last season) and the little we've already seen this spring, it's safe to say that he'll hit for power—if he hits at all. Because he's run big, scary strikeout numbers in the minors, the big, scary question for him centers much more on the hit tool. That single was a neat demonstration of his ability to adjust and adapt.

He muddied the signal a bit, shortly afterward, by getting an atrocious jump and being caught stealing, but it was just one attempt. It seems as though either Bruján or Workman would be the best defensive third baseman on the roster, should they make it, and both should be able to accumulate some steals. Workman has to prove he can make enough contact to consistently get on base. Bruján has to prove he can generate some power. In that regard, each player had a very good game Tuesday.

Owen Caissie's Effect on the Cubs Offseason
Shaw's injury has eased whatever degree of logjam the team faced when camp started. Even before that, another injury (or two?) had a major effect moving in the same direction. A few days ago, I wrote about the team bringing Travis Jankowski and Greg Allen to camp, and about how they were replacing Owen Caissie, more than truly vying for the backup job to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Caissie is still not close to starting competitive action, as he deals with a groin strain.

Belatedly, we learned that Caissie had core surgery in the early stages of the offseason. Multiple league sources confirmed to North Side Baseball that Caissie's medicals killed "at least one" significant trade for the Cubs this winter, so the effect of that ill-timed injury has had a profound effect on the organization. Not only did the team not accomplish the trade in which they were prepared to send out Caissie, but (to whatever extent their own confidence in his ability to recover and reach his ceiling) they had a tougher decision on their hands whenever potential suitors asked about Kevin Alcántara.

The 2025 Cubs would look somewhat different—and perhaps have people meaningfully more excited, even if the extra improvement came at a long-term cost—if Caissie were fully healthy, or even had a currently encouraging prognosis. His health will be worth tracking for the next few months, no matter what, but right now, it's almost inarguable that Alcántara has surpassed him as a likely long-term outfield piece for the team—for good reasons, and bad ones.

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[Bull]

There are several pitchers on your list that I would put behind Jordan Wicks. I'm guessing the assumption is he'll begin the year in AAA.

 

Edited February 26, 2025 by Bull

[Bertz]

Despite them having minor league options, I'd be surprised by Pearson or Morgan missing the opening day roster.  I'm sure someone will go down to injury and make it moot, but right now I suspect Merryweather's roster spot is the warmest and provides the potential wiggle room for a Brad Keller to make the bullpen or a Brown/Wicks to push Colin Rea out of the rotation.

Workman looks good.  The defense jumps off the page immediately, and the power is clearly real.  I could easily see him being a positive contributor through dongs and defense.  Something akin to what Paul Dejong has turned into?

[Bertz]

Also do we think the Caissie deal that got squashed was Luzardo?  We heard that got scuttled by medicals, but we (at least I) never stopped to think "Are we sure that it is Luzardo's health that's the issue?" 

[Matthew Trueblood]

43 minutes ago, Bull said:

There are several pitchers on your list that I would put behind Jordan Wicks. I'm guessing the assumption is he'll begin the year in AAA.

 

Yeah, Wicks will be in the I-Cubs rotation, barring injuries (plural).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think they'll try to position the initial roster in a way that tries to preserve depth, but I don't think they'll do it at the expense of their preferred leverage pecking order.  So in practice that means they might keep Merryweather and option Morgan, or ease Brown in at Iowa until the first IL stint strikes.  But if Pearson is in line for the same role he finished the year I don't think he's getting optioned in the name of avoiding a decision on the Keegans/Hollowells of the world.  Same with Hodge.

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think they'll try to position the initial roster in a way that tries to preserve depth, but I don't think they'll do it at the expense of their preferred leverage pecking order.  So in practice that means they might keep Merryweather and option Morgan, or ease Brown in at Iowa until the first IL stint strikes.  But if Pearson is in line for the same role he finished the year I don't think he's getting optioned in the name of avoiding a decision on the Keegans/Hollowells of the world.  Same with Hodge.

Hodge is a lock, for me. But with Pressly and Brasier in town now, I don't think Pearson *is* in line for that same role, right away. That could change, of course, but he'll have to pitch his way into a high-leverage job by establishing consistency in command and release points.

[Bull]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Yeah, Wicks will be in the I-Cubs rotation, barring injuries (plural).

Still, I think he's worth mentioning above several names listed.

[Rcal10]

I think Pearson is more of a sure thing than Merryweather. IMO, if someone like Keller makes the team, and there are no injured for him to have done so, that would be at Merryweather’s expense. I think Pearson and Morgan make the team and the last slot is the one currently being suggested as Merryweather. I also think Rey decided against Robertson because of the options they have already. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Hodge is a lock, for me. But with Pressly and Brasier in town now, I don't think Pearson *is* in line for that same role, right away. That could change, of course, but he'll have to pitch his way into a high-leverage job by establishing consistency in command and release points.

That’s fair.  I’m a little skeptical that Brasier is ahead of Pearson in that pecking order without seeing them go in opposite directions in ST, but we’re talking about small margins.

[Bull]

58 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That’s fair.  I’m a little skeptical that Brasier is ahead of Pearson in that pecking order without seeing them go in opposite directions in ST, but we’re talking about small margins.

Can someone who can do it off the top of your head take that list (plus any other pitchers on the 40 man) and note who has options, and who has to be rostered or lost?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

6 minutes ago, Bull said:

Can someone who can do it off the top of your head take that list (plus any other pitchers on the 40 man) and note who has options, and who has to be rostered or lost?

 

Bolded players are optionable, the rest have to stay on the roster or risk being lost in some fashion.  The underlined are not currently on the 40 man roster so even if they're optionable they need to be added at someone else's expense.

• Ryan Pressly
• Porter Hodge
• Ryan Brasier
• Caleb Thielbar
• Julian Merryweather
• Tyson Miller
• Keegan Thompson
• Brad Keller
• Chris Flexen
• Phil Bickford
• Ben Brown
• Cody Poteet
• Nate Pearson
• Eli Morgan
• Luke Little
• Daniel Palencia
• Jack Neely
• Caleb Kilian
• Ethan Roberts
• Gavin Hollowell
• Ben Heller
• Brooks Kriske
• Trevor Richards
• Brandon Hughes

 

 

[thawv]

44 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

 

 

Bolded players are optionable, the rest have to stay on the roster or risk being lost in some fashion.  The underlined are not currently on the 40 man roster so even if they're optionable they need to be added at someone else's expense.

• Ryan Pressly
• Porter Hodge
• Ryan Brasier
• Caleb Thielbar
• Julian Merryweather
• Tyson Miller
• Keegan Thompson
• Brad Keller
• Chris Flexen
• Phil Bickford
• Ben Brown
• Cody Poteet
• Nate Pearson
• Eli Morgan
• Luke Little
• Daniel Palencia
• Jack Neely
• Caleb Kilian
• Ethan Roberts
• Gavin Hollowell
• Ben Heller
• Brooks Kriske
• Trevor Richards
• Brandon Hughes

 

 

Braiser and Thielbar both have 1 option left.  But both can refuse being optioned. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

29 minutes ago, thawv said:

Braiser and Thielbar both have 1 option left.  But both can refuse being optioned. 

And would absolutely do so. Don't think of farming either of them out as a viable possibility; it isn't one.

[thawv]

22 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

And would absolutely do so. Don't think of farming either of them out as a viable possibility; it isn't one.

I agree 100%.  I was just pointing out that they should be on the list of players who still had options.  Literally, they have options.  Realistically, they would not accept their option assignment.