Cubs Add More Potential Bullpen Depth, Sign Righty Trevor Richards to Minor-League Deal

[Matthew Trueblood]

We've talked about the Cubs being near their limit for sheer depth options at the fringes of their bullpen, but apparently, they're not quite there yet. On Monday afternoon, they agreed to bring aboard a high-slot changeup specialist who could fit into a situational role near the bottom of their depth chart.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

This move won't make anyone less hungry for a true relief ace, but as the Cubs try hard to avoid the depth shortfalls that exposed and cost them in the first half of 2024, they took another small step toward safety Monday by signing right-handed reliever Trevor Richards. Aram Leighton of Just Baseball broke the news.

Richards's fastball is a fairly pedestrian offering, averaging 92 miles per hour. It has a lot of carry at the top of the zone, but from his overhand slot, it doesn't generate much deception or induce many swings and misses. The key to his two-pitch attack, though, is that changeup, with lots of depth and a bit of run to the arm side, to boot.

When he's going well, Richards does pile up strikeouts, because the changeup is a swing-and-miss pitch. He nearly always walks more batters than you'd like, though, and of his seven big-league seasons, only 2021 saw him actually run a good ERA and consistently get hitters out. He's a limited pitcher who must be used carefully, but he does have reverse platoon splits, somewhat like erstwhile Cubs middle reliever Mark Leiter Jr. They're funky splits, though. Here are his career numbers:

• vs. RHH: .248/.320/.432, 26.5% K, 9.2% BB
• vs. LHH: .221/.315/.372, 24.1% K, 11.8% BB

In other words, across samples of more than 1,000 batters faced from each side, Richards has been reliably better against lefties—but he's struck out more and walked fewer against righties. It's only against lefties that he seems able to limit quality of contact. That's bizarre, and helps explain why he's struggled more than he's thrived throughout his career.

If Richards makes the roster, he could eventually be some version of what Leiter was for the Cubs, but the ceiling feels lower. In the meantime, he faces a long climb to make the team at all. This is a nice pickup and camp check-in, lest the team can unlock something for him the way they did with Leiter. It's not the big addition they still need to make to their bullpen, though. It only further crowds the competition for the final spot or two on the Opening Day roster.

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[Bertz]

I'm curious how many of these guys the team can even manage to hold onto into the regular season.

Right now, once the inevitable FA closer is signed, the MLB pitching staff will be more or less locked in.

SP - Steele, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, Rea

CL - TBD Free Agent

SU - Pearson, Hodge

MR - Merryweather, Morgan, Miller, Thielbar

LR - K. Thompson

Keegan probably doesn't have the tightest grip on a roster spot, but the only MiLB options above are Hodge and Morgan, who are VERY unlikely to open the year in the minors.  Additions beyond the one expected require cuts.

And Iowa's not much easier to crack!  This is my assumption for what Iowa looks like

SP - Brown, Wicks, Assad, Horton, Birdsell

CL - Neely

SU - Palencia, Little

MR - E. Roberts, Hollowell, R. Martin

LR - Poteet, Kilian

So that leaves all of Zastryzny, Festa, Bickford, Richards, and Heller (am I missing anybody?) on the outside looking in to even get a spot at Iowa.  There are some possible spots to open up (Martin to Tenn feels fair, demote Kilian while he converts to short relief?), but beyond a couple you'd seem to be harming the development of actual prospects.

There will be injury, and having them in camp in case they pop isn't without value, but it feels like we're stress testing the adage that you can't have too much pitching.

[Illiterate Scholar]

I'll be surprised if Brown opens the season at Iowa, or for that matter, if he spends any non-rehab time there during the season. Especially with Jed on a hot/warm seat.