The Depressing National Narrative Around The Chicago Cubs

[Brian Kelder]

The Cubs have decided to become an analytically driven team. For the first time, articles from league-wide sources are weighing in on all teams. The Cubs, specifically, have not fared well in these surveys.

Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Cubs front office's perception league-wide is flagging. The farm system, long held up as a beacon of hope for fans, is losing steam.

MLB.com often posts interesting topics that are meant to drive user engagement. However, their surveys, like the linked article of a survey from MLB executives, can be very interesting. Front offices around the league see the Cubs' process as ineffective. Only six percent of voters picked the Cubs as a top farm system, and only six said the Cubs were the most effective drafting organization. Acquiring talent in the international market has been a complete struggle, and developing pitching is not an area in which the Cubs are noted to excel.

Two prospects from Chicago received votes. Matt Shaw received a vote for best hitting prospect, and Cade Horton a couple of votes for best pitching prospect. Cam Smith ironically received as many votes as Shaw. Do the Cubs have a talent scouting deficit?

Baseball America surveyed 27 scouts (Bleacher Nation article, Baseball America behind a paywall), and the answer to this question was a resounding yes. While this is a relatively small sample size, having seven nominate the Cubs as the least scout-friendly team is jarring. They also failed to receive a vote for a team great at identifying talent. Three scouts said the Cubs were the worst at this skill. They were not mentioned either as a team that can identify marginal prospects.

The Cubs have been selling fans on hope and prospects helping since 2021's selloff. The scouts' pessimism in this farm system is justified by looking at the linked FanGraphs ranking. Only Matt Shaw is projected as an above-average major-league player. Having seven prospects in the top 100 is good; the fact that only one projects well epitomizes the Jed Hoyer experience.

These facts give pause to the theory that the Cubs have been building up to this point, and the farm system is ready to produce. The Cubs will likely let Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ test the free-agent waters in the next two seasons. Who will replace them?

Owen Caissie: probable low-contact bat with platoon issues

Moises Ballesteros: can only DH or play catcher, which he hasn't been able to do

James Triantos: profile much like a poor man's Nico

Kevin Alcantara: underwhelming results in the minors

Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Brandon Birdsell: health issues, all.

The Cubs would like us all to believe, and they probably do believe themselves, that the sustainable roster will come from the farm system. Only time will tell if the team or the rest of the league are correct in their assessments. Fans need to bet that Jed Hoyer, Dan Kantrovitz, and the rest of the front office know more about their organization than the outside world does.

And they are demonstrating an increasing need to hit on the farm system. These are all financially based decisions that affect the Cubs going forward:

1. Dealing Cody Bellinger for a depth reliever

2. To this point, not agreeing to terms with Kyle Tucker

3. Not extending Justin Steele

4. Letting Miles Mastrobuoni go for cheaper options (good move, but still)

The Cubs rely long-term on their abilities in evaluating players to build their next "great team," as they often pontificate. If they are as wrong as the rest of the league seems to think, the future will look to be as bleak as the past six years. Only time will tell, and possibly, a new front office can flip the national narrative.

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[Tryptamine]

Some really bad takes in  here, but these 2 stand out to me.

1. Why would they extend Steele? He's going to be almost 32 before he hits FA. What's the rush to throw money at that?

2) Alcantara is underwhelming? He's an above average defender at a premium defensive position who put up 125 and 124 wRC+ over the last 2 years across AA and AAA in his age 21 and 22 season. 

 

[Named After Maddux]

19 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Some really bad takes in  here, but these 2 stand out to me.

1. Why would they extend Steele? He's going to be almost 32 before he hits FA. What's the rush to throw money at that?

2) Alcantara is underwhelming? He's an above average defender at a premium defensive position who put up 125 and 124 wRC+ over the last 2 years across AA and AAA in his age 21 and 22 season. 

 

I too hope all the Cubs prospects are as underwhelming as Kevin Alcántara has been. Caissie is a platoon bat? Wouldn’t be surprised if you shelter him from a few tough lefties but he’s got like a .360 wOBA against LHP on tracked pitches.

We’re knocking the Cubs scouting department because they have both a hitter (Shaw) and pitcher (Horton) plus a previous draft pick (Smith) that all received national votes for the best hitter or pitching prospect in the game? I’m not saying you praise them for it, but why would this be viewed as a negative?

I gotta say this just reads like a hit piece on the organization, which is the vibe that has come across from this author in other articles. That’s fine, maybe there’s an appetite for it, but “If they are as wrong as the rest of the league seems to think, the future will look to be as bleak as the past six years.” What are we doing here?

[CubinNY]

Jed has a type. That type is Ian Happ. They love athletic college bats who perform well in wood bat leagues. They value certainty (not the right word) in their high draft pics and it’s why they choose college players with a “high floor” (I don’t like that either). Then they go over slot later in the draft in more of a gamble. Jed is always hedging his bets. It’s not necessarily a bad strategy, but the result typically are good, not great. Good, not great isn’t necessarily bad either if you’re willing to buy greatness when it’s available. They’ve not done that. Recently Jed’s made a point of talking about “clean books,” whatever the hell that means. The point of clean books is to go after top free agents I would guess. But they had clean books before and choose Swanson who is a defensive stalwart with a light bat. Not a star and he’s the face of the franchise. In a year or two his book will get messy too. 

Edited January 12, 2025 by CubinNY

[Statyllus]

There are more Cub fan boys on this site than fleas on a dog.  The Cubs are not the Orioles clawing to bring down the Yankees and other major market teams in the AL East. The Cubs are the only major market team in the NL Central. They routinely get their ass handed to them by the Brewers. The Cubs under the Hoyer reign have produced no superstars from the Cubs farm system. And no, PCA is not a superstar and the jury is still out on him. Brewers have a 19 yr old LF who is a star in his rookie year. He delivered results by help the Brewers go to the playoffs- again. Other than future hopes and dreams about a truck load of minor leaguers riding in to save us, what have you got - a $200M+ .500 team playing in an easy to win division. Results in the PRESENT is what MLB is about. Not misty eyed fairy tales about some great future. In the here and now the Cubs suck under Hoyer.