Should Cubs Engage Rays on Shane McClanahan, or Shane Baz?

[Matthew Trueblood]

In the Cubs' relentless search for a rotation upgrade, the final frontier might be Tampa Bay.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Coming into this offseason, the Rays knew they needed to clear some payroll, and that the most sensible way to do so would be by trading from their pitching surplus. They traded Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics in a package trade several days ago, but they might still need to reconfigure their roster a bit as they head into a long season (and perhaps more) at a substitute home away from Tropicana Field. That could line up perfectly with the Cubs' progression of moves this winter, because they remain in search of an upgrade to their starting rotation—and the Rays have two talented hurlers ready to make a little bit of serious money, whom they might therefore be willing to trade.

It's a tale of two Shanes. Shane McClanahan is the more obvious target, because he's left-handed; we know how much the Cubs love to collect southpaws. He also has three years of team control remaining, and will make a manageable $3.6 million in 2025. That will be the second season of multi-year deal to which he and the Rays agreed last winter. He's also a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter. He comes at hitters with four plus pitches. His fastball sits 97 and scrapes 100, and he has a slider, curveball, and changeup that play nicely off of it.

He's made 74 career starts, with a 3.02 ERA, a 28.0% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. This is all good news. Here's the great big 'but': McClanahan underwent his second Tommy John surgery in August 2023. He hasn't pitched in the big leagues since then. McClanahan is as high-upside as Garrett Crochet, in whom the Cubs had interest before he landed in Boston, but he's also an even riskier bet than Jesús Luzardo, whom the team scrapped plans to acquire earlier this week. He wouldn't be available if there weren't major injury questions hanging here, but unless the Rays discount their asking price for him on that basis, it's hard to imagine a deal coming together.

Shane Baz offers a lot of the same features, but some important differences, too. He's a right-hander, and his Tommy John surgery was back in 2022, so he came back and pitched well in the second half of 2024. He didn't miss as many bats as one might expect during that stint, but he's as well-rounded a pitcher as McClanahan. His fastball is one of the best in the league, averaging 96 miles per hour with more ride and run than one would expect, and he has terrific feel for spin to go with that. His changeup isn't as good as McClanahan's, but being a righty, he doesn't need that pitch as badly as McClanahan does.

MLB Trade Rumors only projects Baz to make $1.9 million in 2025, so the urgency to make a trade doesn't have to be all that great on Tampa's side. However, he's also a Super Two player, so this will be the first of four trips through arbitration for him. Players who qualify for Super Two status get very expensive in the final two years of their team control; the Rays might prefer to move him while they have more leverage, and there's more team control to receive compensation for.

Either of these guys would cost the Cubs a pair of top prospects and a strong complementary arm. It's not easy to give up so much talent, and the odds of such a trade feel fairly remote. Still, as the team explores their options and the offseason slowly moves forward (narrowing those options in the process), McClanahan and Baz have to be on their radar.

View full article

[Victor Reichman]

I enjoy your articles. But, there should be far more criticism about giving Belli away for an unproven, 30 yr. old reliever with a bad minor league record.

Seattle is begging for a good 1st baseman. They have a surplus of good pitchers. Surely, Hoyer could have traded the versatile Belli to them, along with a mid range prospect for a front line pitcher, even if we had to pay $10 mil. of his salary. That would be far cheaper than getting a frontline pitcher. Toronto also would have been interested. Shame on the Cubs for even paying a penny of Belli's salary for basically no return.

[mul21]

43 minutes ago, Victor Reichman said:

I enjoy your articles. But, there should be far more criticism about giving Belli away for an unproven, 30 yr. old reliever with a bad minor league record.

Seattle is begging for a good 1st baseman. They have a surplus of good pitchers. Surely, Hoyer could have traded the versatile Belli to them, along with a mid range prospect for a front line pitcher, even if we had to pay $10 mil. of his salary. That would be far cheaper than getting a frontline pitcher. Toronto also would have been interested. Shame on the Cubs for even paying a penny of Belli's salary for basically no return.

The whole point of the trade was to free up cash.  The prospect return was a consideration, but Jed wanted to free up that money to use on a non-outfield roster spot with Tucker in the fold.  That was obvious from the time he started talking about Belli not opting in, he never wanted him on the roster in '25 to begin with.

On top of that, Seattle has a budget issue and certainly wasn't going to take on that kind of salary in a trade regardless of the return.

Edited December 20, 2024 by mul21

[We Got The Whole 9]

Belli would probably hit 220 in Safeco but they were certainly not going to give up a Frontline arm for him and Triantos. We could only begin discussing Castillo when we brought Nico in the conversation.

 

We basically got a free shot on Belli for last year. It worked out fine.

[harmony]

11 hours ago, Victor Reichman said:

I enjoy your articles. But, there should be far more criticism about giving Belli away for an unproven, 30 yr. old reliever with a bad minor league record.

Seattle is begging for a good 1st baseman. They have a surplus of good pitchers. Surely, Hoyer could have traded the versatile Belli to them, along with a mid range prospect for a front line pitcher, even if we had to pay $10 mil. of his salary. That would be far cheaper than getting a frontline pitcher. Toronto also would have been interested. Shame on the Cubs for even paying a penny of Belli's salary for basically no return.

According to Roster Resource, the current Seattle first baseman is Luke Raley, who this year posted 3.2 bWAR in 137 games to Cody Bellinger's 2.2 bWAR in 130 games.

[CubUgly]

19 hours ago, Victor Reichman said:

I enjoy your articles. But, there should be far more criticism about giving Belli away for an unproven, 30 yr. old reliever with a bad minor league record.

Seattle is begging for a good 1st baseman. They have a surplus of good pitchers. Surely, Hoyer could have traded the versatile Belli to them, along with a mid range prospect for a front line pitcher, even if we had to pay $10 mil. of his salary. That would be far cheaper than getting a frontline pitcher. Toronto also would have been interested. Shame on the Cubs for even paying a penny of Belli's salary for basically no return.

I don't think anyone should judge the Belli trade at face value.  Let's see what the Cubs use the money for and then you can look at it like Belli was really traded for X, y and Z and judge it then.  Because that IMHO is the reality.