Monte J.’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint: Trade Hoerner to Mariners

[Monte J.]

Hoerner is a solid defensive 2nd baseman and base stealer when he gets on. But the Cubs need more slug/power. Shaw appears to be ready. Trade Nico to the Mariners for George Kirby or Brian Woo.

• C: Miguel Amaya ($0.80M)
• 1B: Michael Busch ($0.80M)
• 2B: Nico Hoerner ($11.50M)
• 3B: Isaac Paredes ($6.90M)
• SS: Dansby Swanson ($28.00M)
• LF: Ian Happ ($21.00M)
• CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong ($0.80M)
• RF: Seiya Suzuki ($19.00M)
• DH: Cody Bellinger ($27.50M)
• Backup C: Matt Thaiss ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Shota Imanaga ($13.50M)
• SP2: Justin Steele ($6.40M)
• SP3: Jameson Taillon ($18.00M)
• SP4: Javier Assad ($0.80M)
• SP5: Jordan Wicks ($0.80M)
• RP: Nate Pearson ($1.40M)
• RP: Julian Merryweather ($1.30M)
• RP: Tyson Miller ($0.80M)
• RP: Porter Hodge ($0.80M)
• RP: Keegan Thompson ($1.00M)
• RP: Ethan Roberts ($0.80M)
• RP: Eli Morgan ($1.00M)
• RP: Luke Little ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 25.23% under budget

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, Monte J. said:

Hoerner is a solid defensive 2nd baseman and base stealer when he gets on. But the Cubs need more slug/power. Shaw appears to be ready. Trade Nico to the Mariners for George Kirby or Brian Woo.

• 😄 Miguel Amaya ($0.80M)
• 1B: Michael Busch ($0.80M)
• 2B: Nico Hoerner ($11.50M)
• 3B: Isaac Paredes ($6.90M)
• SS: Dansby Swanson ($28.00M)
• LF: Ian Happ ($21.00M)
• CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong ($0.80M)
• RF: Seiya Suzuki ($19.00M)
• DH: Cody Bellinger ($27.50M)
• Backup 😄 Matt Thaiss ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Shota Imanaga ($13.50M)
• SP2: Justin Steele ($6.40M)
• SP3: Jameson Taillon ($18.00M)
• SP4: Javier Assad ($0.80M)
• SP5: Jordan Wicks ($0.80M)
• RP: Nate Pearson ($1.40M)
• RP: Julian Merryweather ($1.30M)
• RP: Tyson Miller ($0.80M)
• RP: Porter Hodge ($0.80M)
• RP: Keegan Thompson ($1.00M)
• RP: Ethan Roberts ($0.80M)
• RP: Eli Morgan ($1.00M)
• RP: Luke Little ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 25.23% under budget

Hoerner + 2 prospects might get you Woo.  Add at least 1 more prospect to have a chance at Kirby.

[harmony]

13 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Hoerner + 2 prospects might get you Woo.  Add at least 1 more prospect to have a chance at Kirby.

Seattle is unlikely to trade Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller, certainly not for a package of lesser assets.

Continuing in their win-now mode, the Mariners seek comparable team control of established MLB talent, not prospects.

Edited November 29, 2024 by harmony

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle is unlikely to trade Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller, certainly not for a package of lesser assets.

Continuing in their win-now mode, the Mariners seek comparable team control of established MLB talent, not prospects.

They really have a weak middle-infield situation and they want/need Hoerner.  Throw in Triantos + pitching prospects (i.e. Wicks, Wesneski) and you might get it done.

 

[harmony]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

They really have a weak middle-infield situation and they want/need Hoerner.  Throw in Triantos + pitching prospects (i.e. Wicks, Wesneski) and you might get it done.

 

Seattle might have an interest in a healthy Nico Hoerner because his defensive skills offset his league-average bat (career OPS+ 100, 2024 OPS+ 101). However, the Mariners are unlikely to surrender an established, cost-controlled starter for an infielder whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his mere two years of team control.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle might have an interest in a healthy Nico Hoerner because his defensive skills offset his league-average bat (career OPS+ 100, 2024 OPS+ 101). However, the Mariners are unlikely to surrender an established, cost-controlled starter for an infielder whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his mere two years of team control.

Hoerner and Triantos could be the starting 2B and SS next year for them.  Earlier I mentioned a trade proposal including Thaiss and Garver in a deal.  Getting rid of Garver's $12 contract might be an incentive for them and would help our bench.  

[harmony]

5 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Hoerner and Triantos could be the starting 2B and SS next year for them.  Earlier I mentioned a trade proposal including Thaiss and Garver in a deal.  Getting rid of Garver's $12 contract might be an incentive for them and would help our bench.  

Seattle's starting shortstop next year will almost certainly be J,P. Crawford, whose projected WAR of 3.0 falls between his 2023 fWAR of 4.9 and the 1.6 fWAR of his injury-plagued 2024 season:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jp-crawford/15491/stats?position=SS#dashboard

[Cubbyfn44]

On 11/28/2024 at 3:17 PM, Monte J. said:

Hoerner is a solid defensive 2nd baseman and base stealer when he gets on. But the Cubs need more slug/power. Shaw appears to be ready. Trade Nico to the Mariners for George Kirby or Brian Woo.

• 😄 Miguel Amaya ($0.80M)
• 1B: Michael Busch ($0.80M)
• 2B: Nico Hoerner ($11.50M)
• 3B: Isaac Paredes ($6.90M)
• SS: Dansby Swanson ($28.00M)
• LF: Ian Happ ($21.00M)
• CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong ($0.80M)
• RF: Seiya Suzuki ($19.00M)
• DH: Cody Bellinger ($27.50M)
• Backup 😄 Matt Thaiss ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Shota Imanaga ($13.50M)
• SP2: Justin Steele ($6.40M)
• SP3: Jameson Taillon ($18.00M)
• SP4: Javier Assad ($0.80M)
• SP5: Jordan Wicks ($0.80M)
• RP: Nate Pearson ($1.40M)
• RP: Julian Merryweather ($1.30M)
• RP: Tyson Miller ($0.80M)
• RP: Porter Hodge ($0.80M)
• RP: Keegan Thompson ($1.00M)
• RP: Ethan Roberts ($0.80M)
• RP: Eli Morgan ($1.00M)
• RP: Luke Little ($0.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 25.23% under budget

They should look for prospects for Horner, the whole point in trading him is to open up roster spots

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Cubbyfn44 said:

They should look for prospects for Horner, the whole point in trading him is to open up roster spots

Will the players taking his roster spot give us better production than you would expect him to give us?

[Rcal10]

12 hours ago, Cubbyfn44 said:

They should look for prospects for Horner, the whole point in trading him is to open up roster spots

I don’t agree with this. Hoerner is close to a 4WAR second baseman. Why should they trade him to open up a roster spot for someone who most likely will not be as good? If they get something of value for Hoerner that proves the team elsewhere, sure they can trade him and give second ro a prospect in the system. But he shouldn’t be moved strictly to open up a space if they want to win in 25’. And right now they won’t get the value they should get for Hoerner, so I don’t see him being traded. 

[CubinNY]

People throw WAR around like a nuclear missile when it is a firecracker. 

Nico is a league-average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense. I don't necessarily want to trade him, especially for pitching because it makes the offense that is middle to bad, worse. I don't know that there is a good fit for him related to trading. 

The Cubs need slugging. They will need it even more if they trade Bellinger which they seem intended to do. 

[squally1313]

44 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

People throw WAR around like a nuclear missile when it is a firecracker. 

Nico is a league-average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense. I don't necessarily want to trade him, especially for pitching because it makes the offense that is middle to bad, worse. I don't know that there is a good fit for him related to trading. 

The Cubs need slugging. They will need it even more if they trade Bellinger which they seem intended to do. 

It's not that WAR is some end all be all summation of a player's value. It's that referring to someone as a 4 win player or a 2 win player or whatever is, like, infinitely more helpful than 'a league-average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense'. Ok, how valuable is that compared to a second baseman who is a good hitter but plays bad defense? Or a first baseman who is a really good hitter but is bad defensively even for a first baseman? Or a DH with a .350 wOBA? Or a first baseman who is a league average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nico is a slightly above average hitter with elite baserunning(which combines to a good offensive package) and elite defense.  Adding some more HR pop with acquisitions this offseason is a good idea in general, but for a few different reasons people have gotten a mistaken idea that the team needs to get rid of very valuable players in that pursuit, which is not true.

[CubinNY]

25 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not that WAR is some end all be all summation of a player's value. It's that referring to someone as a 4 win player or a 2 win player or whatever is, like, infinitely more helpful than 'a league-average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense'. Ok, how valuable is that compared to a second baseman who is a good hitter but plays bad defense? Or a first baseman who is a really good hitter but is bad defensively even for a first baseman? Or a DH with a .350 wOBA? Or a first baseman who is a league average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense? 

It's not any better because it obscures where the value comes from. It's far more descriptive to say where the value comes from than saying he's a 4 WAR player. Nobody knows what that means, even though everyone thinks they do. 

Edit: Also, there is a lot to be said about a league average 2nd baseman. He has a lot of value, but less so than one would expect in a trade scenario. 

Edited December 3, 2024 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It's not any better because it obscures where the value comes from. It's far more descriptive to say where the value comes from than saying he's a 4 WAR player. Nobody knows what that means, even though everyone thinks they do. 

Edit: Also, there is a lot to be said about a league average 2nd baseman. He has a lot of value, but less so than one would expect in a trade scenario. 

But in a sport where value comes from multiple different avenues, it uses a whole bunch of data and people working full time to determine how to contextualize offensive value vs baserunning value vs defensive value (and to that front, the value of elite/good/bad defense at different positions) and a far better way to try to compare what would otherwise be apples and oranges. Whereas most people around here, in their pursuit to minimize the advanced statistics, just place arbitrary weights on how important offensive production is vs defensive production (or how important it is at certain positions, or how important on base/ball on bat skills are vs slugging/power, etc etc etc). 

Like, (as a hypothetical, do not put actual players into these roles) comparing the best offensive/worst defensive player in baseball to the worst offensive/best defensive player in baseball is borderline impossible without some sort of attempt to weigh player As offensive contributions vs player Bs defensive contributions. Which player will lead to more wins? How many more wins? 

[CubinNY]

I'm not traveling down this road again. Saying someone is an X-WAR player is useful but not as useful as people think. THE END. 

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It's not any better because it obscures where the value comes from. It's far more descriptive to say where the value comes from than saying he's a 4 WAR player. Nobody knows what that means, even though everyone thinks they do. 

Edit: Also, there is a lot to be said about a league average 2nd baseman. He has a lot of value, but less so than one would expect in a trade scenario. 

But league average offensively but elite defensively should raise his value. I am not interested in moving Nico so that Shaw can play second just because Shaw might hit 10 more homers than Nico. His overall offense very well could end up league average, if he is pretty good year one. So regardless of how he does it there is a real chance he isn’t any better offensively than Nico in 25’, just doing it a little differently. However, when you then add defense, Shaw becomes less valuable than Nico. He does less to make the team win. To me, that is why you don’t trade Nico for a prospect just to open up a space for Shaw.
If you can get good value for Nico in a trade that gives you a major league player in a position of need for the Cubs (even if you have to add to him to get a real good player) I can see them trading him and giving Shaw the spot. Shaw+ solid major league player added in a Nico trade is better than Nico alone. I am not opposed to dealing Nico, but now is not the time. And not just to replace him in the line up. He is still very good and unless you get very good back for him, I am fine with him here.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

I'm not traveling down this road again. Saying someone is an X-WAR player is useful but not as useful as people think. THE END. 

An unproveable statement delivered as factual and the end all be all of the conversation. Perfect. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

An unproveable statement delivered as factual and the end all be all of the conversation. Perfect. 

Isn’t that how America works now? 🤷

[harmony]

Rumored negotiations on three-way trade involving Cubs, White Sox and Mariners:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9qlUp9MaB8