Offseason Handbook: So You Want the Cubs to Trade for a Mariners Starting Pitcher

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs want a frontline starting pitcher, and they don't want to spend frontline starting pitcher money. The Seattle Mariners want a better offense, but they need to cut payroll. Let's make a deal!

Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

At this week's General Manager Meetings, one of the hot topics was the possibility of a trade that would send one or more of the Chicago Cubs' bevy of solid position-player prospects to the Seattle Mariners, in exchange for one of the Mariners' very impressive collection of young starting pitchers under medium- to long-term team control. It was news on the order of dog bites rawhide thrown to them in the yard, rather even than dog bites man, because this is the most obvious potential trade fit in the league right now. The Cubs and Mariners are each trying to get back over the hump and into the playoffs, and each team has some very good things going for them. Each also faces some significant constraints, and the match of their respective surpluses and shortfalls does not require a baseball brain surgeon to spot. Fans have discussed the possibility of the two teams getting together on a major deal for a year or more, and nothing that has happened during that time has made the realization of that possibility any less likely.

That doesn't mean it'll actually happen, though. When two teams find themselves in such an open-field confrontation, they tend to circle each other and look for exit strategies, so they don't end up feeling forced into something. Jerry Dipoto loves a trade, but Jed Hoyer is a very conservative deal-maker. The two think about the game pretty differently, but would have to find a place where the way they each value some of their key players intersects or overlaps. That's not as easy as it is to simply identify two teams as natural trade partners.

Nonetheless, let's play this out a little bit. To really understand how realistic (and how desirable) a swap of a young Cubs hitter or two for a Mariners hurler is, we should get to know all parties involved a bit better. Specifically, we should arrive at a ranking—a pref list, to borrow the industry argot—of the five Seattle starters as Cubs targets, and maybe of the five or six Cubs prospects most likely to be involved in a deal, too.

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[Rex Buckingham]

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m going to keep banging on the drum that, if you want a TOR pitcher from the Mariners, it’s Gilbert, Kirby, or bust. Miller and Woo are talented, others too, but now is a great time for the Cubs to not repeat the Quintana mistake *snip*

This right here. We have the prospects and a team in need of top of the line players - go get the big guns.

[harmony]

Bear in mind that Seattle hopes to contend again in 2025 after posting the AL's fourth-best cumulative regular season record over the past four seasons.

Baseball Trade Values assigns George Kirby a surplus value of $111.4 million and Logan Gilbert a surplus value of $65.6 million. In the unlikely event of a trade, the Mariners would want quality, not quantity, in return.

Can the Cubs make a viable offer at those prices?

Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo would be a more realistic trade target.

The Mariners indeed hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 104 (just as the Cubs hope to improve on their team OPS+ of 100).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

*This isn’t to say forego creativity. I’m all for Griffin Jax** or another convert, for example. Just if dealing with an org specifically eyeing high ceiling, first division SP and go in thinking there’s a half dozen options, you’re prob a little off mark 

**Edit - OTOH do I prefer a Jax swing to Duran? Prob not

As a Twins fan, I can say that I'm hoping other teams drool over Duran and forget Jax exists. If I was an acquiring team, I'd choose Jax over Duran.

[Rex Buckingham]

That reads like a post wtitten by AI

 

Edit: by harmony

Edited November 9, 2024 by Rex Buckingham

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

That reads like a post wtitten by AI

 

Edit: by harmony

Intelligence may be artificial for someone who suffers from an impostor syndrome.