Levine: Cubs and Mariners Chatting

[Backtobanks]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

No. This is a massive missed opportunity to choose the contract of arguably the 4th most talented SP on that staff over going after a whale bc payroll is always, always, always the chief concern. I’m too lazy to check but pretty sure Miller is 4th among that rotation in size, velo, breadth of mix, background, on and on but the three in front have slightly larger contracts 

Miller had a 3.4 WAR last year and made $749,000 last year and he's not a FA until 2030.  Woo had a 2.4 WAR at the same salary and same FA date.  Kirby had a 1,9 WAR, same salary, FA date of 2029.  Gilbert had 2.8 WAR, salary of $4 million, and FA date of 2029.  All 4 of them are dirt cheap with at least 4 years of control.  All of them will certainly get raises in their arbitration years, but not as much as some of what the mediocre FAs are asking.

[Backtobanks]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What’s the refrain when it comes to these “mediocre” FAs? Can’t pay for the past? Gilbert and Kirby throw harder, have more pitches, longer/more substantial track records/backgrounds, and generally have higher ceilings. This trade offer, “buying high” on a SP in the Mariners org most because that player is the latest and greatest $/War stuperstar, is some seeing trees but not a forest stuff. The Cubs (and MLB) have tons of cheaper, younger players on the way up, can even cough up some rather than move literally 10% of the 40 for two players without a ton of projection

Miller and Woo are fine pros or whatever, confetti cannon for all that’s worth anymore, but nososecretly the only reason either is taken as seriously as Gilbert/Kirby or even the ancient, aged merely 96 MPH Castillo is that payroll could always be more..efficient…in fanlandia

Then add two more prospects and change from Miller to Gilbert/Kirby if that will make you happier.

[CubinNY]

On 11/25/2024 at 12:27 PM, Backtobanks said:

Since the Mariners are really interested in Hoerner, I wonder if they would do Hoerner + Alcantara + Palencia for their closer Munoz.  Baseballtradevalue.com shows us overpaying, but it might be worth it to get a young, cheap, and proven closer.

No, no, no, no.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It wouldn’t because 2 random prospects plus 10% of the 40 including the starting 2B still doesn’t strike me as much of a deal! It plays totally against the Cubs’ current strength, prospect depth, and all because payroll efficiency is still the priority over all else all the time for no particular reason 

You really are brainwashed by Hoyer/Ricketts.

[muntjack]

Horton + Paredes + Assad.  

Now the Boyd signing makes more sense.   

Edited December 3, 2024 by muntjack

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mariners-trade-rumors-third-base-alec-bohm-phillies.html

Come ooooooon Shaw for Gilbert/Kirby!
 

I doubt they take Shaw. But maybe Parades and Assad get the Cubs one of those pitchers. I wouldn’t also add Horton, however. And it would probably take someone like him added. Still like the idea of a 3 team trade where Seattle gets Bohm, Cubs get Castillo and the Phillies get Bellinger + (maybe Ford) from Seattle. 

Edited December 3, 2024 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

The note that they only have like $16M to play with even after some extensive cuts at the non-tender deadline is kinda nuts.  You'd guess Luis Castillo is extremely available.  Something to keep in mind if Jed's able to move Bellinger.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I can’t imagine why.  Shaw has a ton of advantages for them: 3B/2B/SS versatility, RHH in an infield with Crawford and Top Prospects Emerson and Young not so far out, min salary, full control, and his status could get them a pick. 

I think they want to win now. I would think they would want a proven player. I would think they don’t want Shaw as a starter in their 25’ team for the same reason the Cubs probably don’t want to count on him being an everyday player next year.!Rhey want to win in 25’ 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

My…shinning…tells me this is just the usual Cubs prospect hugging, keeping one foot/eye on perceived payroll efficiency rather than like a real issue for the Mariners. Of course they’d be interested in a Top Prospect who can fit at multiple positions of need, compliments the talent in their org, and is more or less (for their purposes of reducing payroll without killing perceived upside) ready to go 

Your…. Shinning…. (Whatever the hell that means) would be wrong. I wouldn’t have a problem trading Shaw for proven talent. But my guess is the team that took Shaw wouldn’t be planning on competing next year. If the Mariners would take Shaw for Kirby or Gilbert, I would not have an issue with it. I think a better example of a team who would take Shaw would be the White Sox. Maybe Shaw + for Crochet, as an example. 

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mariners-trade-rumors-third-base-alec-bohm-phillies.html

Come ooooooon Shaw for Gilbert/Kirby!
 

Shaw +++ for Gilbert/Kirby.

 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I can’t imagine why.  Shaw has a ton of advantages for them: 3B/2B/SS versatility, RHH in an infield with Crawford and Top Prospects Emerson and Young not so far out, min salary, full control, and his status could get them a pick. 

Because, as highly rated as Shaw is, he hasn't faced ML pitching.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

So go ahead and add prospects. What’s the fuss? The Cubs are much shorter on top shelf talent than prospects and multiple comments here seem perfectly fine with moving the (edit: 26 YO, fully qualified, two way) starting 3B + the top pitching prospect + a cheap BOR starter so clearly there’s lots of room to work with 

Me suggesting Parades instead of Shaw is not prospect hugging Shaw. It is being realistic in what the mariners would want. They are competing this year. Prospects are probably not what they want. So adding prospects to Shaw is still not giving them a major leaguer they would want. 

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I see a few things here:

- You seem to be both sidesing Shaw whether consciously or not: he could replace Paredes or Hoerner more or less no problem right now to compete and in the 2025 MLB a team properly filed to compete would not start a prospect Notably the Mariners were the first org to get the full reward from the league’s prospect incentive program starting Julio Rodriguez 

- Seattle’s been to the playoffs once in 9 years, they’re as much 2025 competitors as Cubs 

- Seattle isn’t moving Kirby or Gilbert to bump up payroll. Both are arb eligible for the first time (Gilbert already made $4.05 last year), there’s also arb with Arozarena ($8.1 in 2024) and Raliegh, and the team isn’t expected to increase payroll much beyond the $145 in 2024 while already being committed to ~$140. The way I sees it if Seattle moves either of those two at all it’ll be to land a pre-arb RHH infield bat rather than an arb for arb swap like Bohm (or, even less likely, Paredes)

 

I am not advocating the Cubs start Shaw at 2nd or 3rd by the Cubs opening a spot for him in a trade. Others have penciled him in the line up suggesting that very thing. What I am suggesting is Seattle most likely would rather have a proven player so IF the Cubs FO really felt Shaw can take over at either second or third AND by trading one of those guys manning that position they can add quality elsewhere, they should consider moving one of those players and allowing Shaw the spot. On the flip side. if Seattle feels Shaw is ready to take over next year, I am fine with moving him for Gilbert/Kirby. I truly do not think that would be what that team would want to do. I think it is way more likely a team like the white sox, A’s, Marlins, Colorado and probably a few others would take a prospect for a proven major leaguer than the Mariners would. But yiu do have a point on them reducing payroll,’so who knows? The issue I had with your original response to me was suggesting I don’t want to make that sort of move due to prospect hugging. Which couldn’t be farther from the truth. I have referred to the prospects as assets many times. And suggested the Cubs use those assets along with some money they could spend to acquire major leaguer than talent. If Seattle really felt Shaw could be their everyday player and was willing to move one of those guys for him, I would do it. 

[Dfan25]

Kaplan said he made some calls today and the Cubs are  talking with the Sox about Crochet and with the Mariners about Luis Castillo .

 

Edited December 6, 2024 by Dfan25