The Problems Posed By Nico Hoerner's Arm Surgery, and a Few Possible Solutions

[Brian Kelder]

As it turns out, the Cubs second baseman has a doctor's note to excuse his disappointing season at the plate, not to mention his declining arm strength. He just underwent surgery on the flexor tendon in his right forearm. So, what now?

Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

We don't know for sure, but it seems very possible this is related to when Nico Hoerner was hit by a pitch on the right hand on Jun. 7. A quick search shows that a forceful blow to the hand can result in a flexor tendon injury, and a direct hit on the hand by a pitched baseball by Hunter Greene at 96.5 miles per hour certainly qualifies. Although he didn't leave the game, Hoerner's performance was affected at the plate for a long time after that. He posted a .627 OPS in June and a .636 in July. While his average rebounded in August and September, the power never materialized. For the year, he hit just seven home runs and ending with a slugging percentage of .373.

Another red flag, in hindsight, is Hoerner's declining arm strength. His throws from second base have declined from an average of 82.6 miles per hour in 2021 and 78.1 in 2023 to 75.1 this year. Seventy-five is not a large number; this author could throw that speed in high school and had a grand total of six varsity at-bats. Zero college scouts asked the coach my name.  

For the offseason, the implications of this development are unhappy: it will be hard for the team to trade him to facilitate an offensive upgrade this winter. Most of his perceived value was due to his ability to play shortstop, with teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Seattle floated in rumors.  A team will want more information on his recovery before acquiring him to play a spot so dependent on the ability to make long, strong throws. He averaged over 85 miles per hour on throws from short in 2021 and 2022, but that slipped to 82 even in 2023, and he didn't play the position enough to post a number in 2024. In his compromised state, he'd have the weakest shortstop arm in baseball. Even at second, he will have to prove that he's recovered.

On the more positive side, Hoerner's perceived down year and his lack of power are explained, if not excused. It's hard to hit a baseball; it's extra hard to hit a baseball when your hand hurts and you can't grip the bat as well as normal. With an offseason to recover, Hoerner should be back to his consistent .280-.290 average, and perhaps he can yet unlock some gap power. He's a good baseball player; the injury surely contributed to his uncharacteristically poor middle of the season.

Should the injury linger into next season, the Cubs have a couple of intriguing in-house options in Iowa. James Triantos replicated Hoerner's skill set at the plate, batting .300 with a .773 OPS at two levels last season. Speed is also in his game, as he totaled 47 stolen bases. If the Cubs can stomach the defensive hit, Triantos could fill in until Hoerner comes back. Matt Shaw is an even trendier pick. In the minors, he did provide more pop, as evidenced by his .488 SLG across two levels. A fully realized offensive season from Shaw would clear the bar Hoerner sets, even when healthy.

If the Cubs decide to go outside of the organization for some more safety, free agency is filed with stopgap options, such as Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, or Whit Merrifield—although, now you read those back, exactly what gap can any of them stop? As we've already discussed around here lately, Brandon Lowe could be an intriguing solution via trade.

There's no good thing about a starting second baseman having offseason surgery and attempting to get healthy and ramp back up the following season, except that it's even worse to simply play hurt. The Cubs will have to get even more creative to fill this position, unless the surgeon who fixed Hoerner's arm is the same guy Henry Rowengartner got. Hoyer needs to get to work, to make sure this lineup doesn't crater like it did while Hoerner was ailing last year.

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