Has Nico Hoerner Figured Things Out in a Resurgent Second Half?

[Jacob Zanolla]

It’s been a disappointing season for Nico Hoerner. His offensive numbers are down, with Cubs fans noticing when he isn’t as clutch as he was in 2023. To the people who are frustrated with Hoerner for not producing like last year, though, we have some rejoinders to offer. 

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Though thoroughly unimpressive, Nico Hoerner has remained playable this season, with a .268/.332/.358 slash line in 141 games. The one big improvement I wanted him to make entering this season was hitting more home runs, but he’s only hit five--fewer than the nine he hit last year, and without a meaningful uptick in doubles and triples to make up for it.

Hoerner’s defense hasn’t been in issue at all, with 10 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. Dansby Swanson and Hoerner both won Gold Gloves in 2023, and will be plausible candidates for those awards when they're handed out again this fall. Hoerner has seven errors to his name, with a fielding percentage of .986, and he's shown excellent range at times this year--just as he did last season.

Jul. 4 was the rough turnaround date for Hoerner, offensively. He’s been solid since then. As of Jul. 3, Hoerner had a .241 average and .662 OPS, along with a .297 wOBA. From Independence Day onward, he’s batted .299, with a .723 OPS and a .318 wOBA.

One concern with Hoerner has been the lack of clutch hits compared to last season. He’s improved in that regard, too. Since Jul. 4, he has a .273 average with 20 RBIs when there are runners in scoring position. Before then, he was hitting .211 with 17 RBIs in such spots. He’s back to his normal self, and it’s awesome to see.

While he is getting hits, the power is still non-existent. His .358 slugging is one of the worst on the Cubs roster, with a .090 ISO that ranks second-to-last on the team. (Miles Mastrobuoni owns a .032 ISO.) It’s great to have such a good contact hitter on the roster, but the lack of power is quite frustrating and concerning.

There's also a more serious question of how he can blend his BABIP skills with his control of the strike zone. Hoerner's 2023 had this same general shape, but when he came on strong in the second half, he also drew a good number of walks, making him a dynamic overall offensive player. This season, he's given up the walks he'd been taking to get the hits that had been missing, which has resulted in a much less exciting OBP and less ability to affect the game with his legs.

Split	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	K%	BB%	HR%	BABIP	WOBA
Pre All-Star Break 2023	371	.271	.321	.376	.697	.105	11.9%	5.7%	1.3%	.297	.306
Post All-Star Break 2023	317	.297	.377	.391	.768	.094	12.3%	8.8%	1.3%	.331	.342
Pre All-Star Break 2024	381	.256	.336	.348	.684	.092	10.8%	8.1%	1.0%	.279	.306
Post All-Star Break 2024	221	.287	.326	.373	.699	.086	10.9%	5.0%	0.5%	.321	.307

In 2022, Nico Hoerner posted a 4.3 fWAR, following that up with 4.6 fWAR in 2023. He’s currently sitting at 3.2 fWAR, so there is a noticeable decrease since last year. However, thanks to his elite defense, he’s still third on the team in fWAR. In his last eight starts, he's recorded five multi-hit games. A .424 average and .405 wOBA aren’t sustainable for a whole season, but finishing the season strong will help his trade stock, something that will need to be discussed further once the offseason is upon us. Whatever decisions the Cubs make with regard to their infield for 2025, continuing to show signs of life over the final fortnight will be good for Hoerner and the club.

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[Bertz]

Nico Hoerner 1st half: 98 wRC+

Nico Hoerner 2nd half: 99 wRC+

Nico Hoerner 1st half xwOBA: .316

Nico Hoerner 2nd half xwOBA: .310

He was walking more in the 1st half and has had a bit more BABIP in the 2nd, but he's the same guy with some normal ebbs and flows of his peripherals.

[We Got The Whole 9]

To me he's basically Theriot. His bread and butter is the line drive to RF and everyone knows he is hunting that outside pitch to punch through. Most teams aren't scared of it and they invite him to try without trepidation. A lot of those BIP have found gloves this year. The power is never gonna come. Power comes with intent and Nico doesn't intend to do damage. It would be great if he could get more doubles down the LF line. 

 

 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

To me he's basically Theriot. His bread and butter is the line drive to RF and everyone knows he is hunting that outside pitch to punch through. Most teams aren't scared of it and they invite him to try without trepidation. A lot of those BIP have found gloves this year. The power is never gonna come. Power comes with intent and Nico doesn't intend to do damage. It would be great if he could get more doubles down the LF line. 

 

 

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

[Matthew Trueblood]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

Approach-wise they are the same hitter. Scrappy guys trying to punch it to RF half the time because they have no ability to lift and pull.

[Bertz]

37 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not a bad comparison when you look at the pure statistics. Theriot in his career went 281/341/350 and Hoerner is at 276/337/377. But you're looking at pretty different offensive climates. 2008 was Theriot's best fWAR year (3.0) and the league wide OPS was 37 points higher than what it currently is in 2024. That and defense explains why Hoerner has pretty comfortably produced a lot more, WAR wise, then Theriot (4.3/4.6/3.3 the last three years). 

Leaguewide strikeout rate is also WAY higher now.  22.5% this year 17.5% in 2008.  Having a slap hitter with a 10% K rate is now a refreshing change of pace.

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Approach-wise they are the same hitter. Scrappy guys trying to punch it to RF half the time because they have no ability to lift and pull.

Sure. Just clarifying that late 2000s Ryan Theriot was an average player, and early 2020s Nico Hoerner is a Good player.

[PVG]

So how does a guy like Nico improve?  Can he do it without adding power - a la Tony Gwynn, and all those famous singles hitters of yesteryear?

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 hours ago, PVG said:

So how does a guy like Nico improve?  Can he do it without adding power - a la Tony Gwynn, and all those famous singles hitters of yesteryear?

Reduce the chase and be more selective in the zone and take more walks. I also feel like sometimes he almost jumps when he swings and it's probably hard to hit a ball that hard when your feet arent sound. A steeper bat path and more intent behind his swings on meatballs would probably produce a better ISO but would also result in a lot of can-of-corn flyballs, affecting his BA. I don't know, I feel like he's too well-built a dude to have such weak contact, though. 

 

 

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Reduce the chase and be more selective in the zone and take more walks. I also feel like sometimes he almost jumps when he swings and it's probably hard to hit a ball that hard when your feet arent sound. A steeper bat path and more intent behind his swings on meatballs would probably produce a better ISO but would also result in a lot of can-of-corn flyballs, affecting his BA. I don't know, I feel like he's too well-built a dude to have such weak contact, though. 

 

 

Yes, he's front-footing his swing, and his power is sapped even though he has better-than-average bat speed. It's fixable, but it would take a concerted effort. 

[Bertz]

The honest answer is there probably isn't a path forward.  The raw juice is in there for more power, but to get to it consistently probably requires a commensurate drop in contact.  And even if he does figure out a better balance the defense will start sliding soon.

That said he's a 4 WAR guy give or take a little bit each season depending on how generous the BABIP gods are.  I probably wouldn't extend him a second time but we should all be extremely happy to have him through his current contract.