Cody Bellinger "Fully Expected" To Remain With The Cubs In 2025

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bob Nightengale (yes, I know) of The USA Today recently wrote that Cody Bellinger "Is Fully Expected" to remain with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.

Bellinger, one of the infamous "Boras Four" last offseason, found the free agent market not to his liking and signed a three-year, $80 million contract late in the offseason. The contract includes opt-outs after each season. Bellinger, while still a very productive player somehow still under the age of 30, has seen his performance dip this season. After a wildly successful 2023 campaign that saw his OPS+ skyrocket back up to 138, it has drifted back down to 115 this season.

The question for Bellinger is whether he wants to maximize overall dollars in a single contract or remain with the Cubs at a higher yearly rate. He is owed $27.5 million in 2025 and $25 million in 2026. It's unlikely any long-term contract he signs this offseason will approach those numbers on an AAV basis.

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[Tryptamine]

It doesn't have to hit the AAV, it just has to have more guaranteed money.  He also has a 2.5M buyout if he opts out. So If he can stay hot and go out and get something like 4/90, he'd be wise to do so. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

farewell Cody, thanks for everything

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It doesn't have to hit the AAV, it just has to have more guaranteed money.  He also has a 2.5M buyout if he opts out. So If he can stay hot and go out and get something like 4/90, he'd be wise to do so. 

Yeah, maybe I didn't make that clear but that's the real variable in play. Would he rather have $50 million and hit free agency at 31 or would he rather have $60-80 million and not worry about free agency for four-ish years?

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, maybe I didn't make that clear but that's the real variable in play. Would he rather have $50 million and hit free agency at 31 or would he rather have $60-80 million and not worry about free agency for four-ish years?

Your really think if Cody was a FA today, 4/60 is a realistic deal? I'd consider that an absolute steal. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Your really think if Cody was a FA today, 4/60 is a realistic deal? I'd consider that an absolute steal. 

The $60m would probably be a three-year deal. I don't think he gets $100m, not given the economic state of baseball as a whole (whether that's real or perceived, boatloads of teams are stagnating or lowering payroll).

[Irrelevant Dude]

I still lean toward wanting Cody to opt out and having the Cubs pursue the unrealistic dream of Soto in RF.  But if we assume that Soto isn't going to happen, are the Cubs actually going to get better by spending the Bellinger money elsewhere?  Despite the lack of slugging, Bellinger is still a productive player when healthy.  Who else out there would be a significant upgrade over him?

[Bertz]

From Cody's POV, pros and cons of opting out this winter:

Con: You're absolutely not getting that mega deal you want.  Marcus Semien money is not coming in the door, even Brandon Nimmo money would be a big stretch

Con: You've got 2/$52M banked with another opt out banked currently 

Con: You seem to enjoy Chicago and your Cub teammates

Pro: You'd be hitting the market as a 29 year old as opposed to a 30 or 31 year old

Pro: While you didn't confirm that 2023 was your true talent level, you did confirm that '21-'22 level of production is fully in the rearview mirror

Pro: You don't have a Qualifying Offer attached to you, while all the other FA OFs of note this winter will

Pro: Harrison Bader is the only other legitimate CF slated to be on the market

Pro: Teams still likely view you as a CF.  However the path to CF playing time is looking increasingly tenuous going forward, putting more pressure on your bat

I would guess Cody opts out and gets something like 5/$110M this winter.  It's obviously not a slam dunk though, and I think the only wrong answer is thinking it's clear cut in either direction.

[Rex Buckingham]

If he had avoided the broken finger, I wonder how much better his overall numbers look

[Tryptamine]

wRC+ up to 114, OPS sitting at .770, BB% is actually up from 2023, K% is just about the same. SLG is down like was expected. If there's a team who thinks he's a CFer, he's definitely getting a contract that makes opting out worth it. By wRC+, his 114 would put him as #9 amongst CFers who had at least 200 PAs. 

[LBiittner]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:12 AM, Bertz said:

From Cody's POV, pros and cons of opting out this winter:

Con: You're absolutely not getting that mega deal you want.  Marcus Semien money is not coming in the door, even Brandon Nimmo money would be a big stretch

Con: You've got 2/$52M banked with another opt out banked currently 

Con: You seem to enjoy Chicago and your Cub teammates

Pro: You'd be hitting the market as a 29 year old as opposed to a 30 or 31 year old

Pro: While you didn't confirm that 2023 was your true talent level, you did confirm that '21-'22 level of production is fully in the rearview mirror

Pro: You don't have a Qualifying Offer attached to you, while all the other FA OFs of note this winter will

Pro: Harrison Bader is the only other legitimate CF slated to be on the market

Pro: Teams still likely view you as a CF.  However the path to CF playing time is looking increasingly tenuous going forward, putting more pressure on your bat

I would guess Cody opts out and gets something like 5/$110M this winter.  It's obviously not a slam dunk though, and I think the only wrong answer is thinking it's clear cut in either direction.

I'm glad this will all be decided 5 days after a cub-less world series.