A Late Approach Adjustment Has One Slugging Cubs Prospect Looking More MLB-Ready

[Matthew Trueblood]

As the team hurtles toward an offseason that will need to include a lot of changes, one big bat has turned a subtle corner in Triple A. Can it translate to the next level?

Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

It's been an eventful season for Owen Caissie, and ultimately, it's also been a successful one. He's been a steady producer for the Iowa Cubs, though he's never forced the issue and looks unlikely to get a taste of the big leagues before the campaign is over. In 514 plate appearances at Iowa, he's batted .271/.372/.471, with 18 home runs, nine stolen bases, 68 walks and 143 strikeouts. The big, left-handed power hitter hasn't tapped into the tool that will make or break his big-league future, but his year has had an air of skill consolidation. He's held serve.

Ordinarily, holding serve isn't what you want from a top prospect who started the season at Triple A, but Caissie is a special case. He just turned 22 in July. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, so there were logistical roadblocks to him contributing to the big-league team this season. On balance, it's not at all discouraging to see him steadily produce at an average-plus level against high-level pitchers. Still, you want to see a corner turned at some point within any season. The good news is, we might be seeing just that from Caissie, right at the end of his season.

Since the calendar flipped to September, Caissie's swing rate is down to the lowest it has been in any month of the season. Specifically, he's laying off pitches down and away, or off the outside edge. He's cut the plate in half a bit, to focus on driving the ball more consistently.

That's led to great raw results; Caissie is batting .275/.408/.575 since the start of the month. He's maintaining an excellent walk rate and a manageable strikeout rate by keeping his zone drum-tight, with a 16.3% chase rate on pitches outside the zone during the month. More importantly, though, perhaps, Caissie is finding more consistently authoritative contact by becoming more selective. For the first time all year, 10% of his swings in September have resulted in batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 100 miles per hour.

That's an important threshold, because it's very hard to be a power hitter of any serious value in the big leagues without having at least that high a rate of triple-digit exit velocities per swing. Of the 267 batters with at least 300 plate appearances in the majors this year, 86--almost exactly one-third--have a rate of at least 10%. The league leaders are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto, who are each over 17%. It's not impossible to be a productive hitter, even one who leans on power somewhat, with a rate below 10%, but it puts a lot of pressure on other skills. Most players who successfully do it get there by having better-than-average strikeout rates, superb walk rates, or some other special talent. 

Caissie is a relatively standard-issue left-handed power guy. He's a better athlete than his frame might imply, but not a true speedster, and while he can drive the ball to all fields, any version of his approach likely to work in the majors will probably depend a great deal on pulling the ball with authority. He's still whiffed on over 30% of his swings this year. He'll struggle to be productive at the next level even with that whiff rate, and we should expect him to whiff more against big-league hurlers than against Triple-A ones, anyway.

Given the very high strikeout rate he's likely to run, he really does have to generate high-end power, which means that crossing that 10% barrier is vital. Again, though, we should expect him to have a lower 100+/Sw% in MLB than in the minors. The progress he's made this month is commendable and crucial, but going into the offseason, the Cubs can't count on anything from him next year. Instead, much like Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcántara, he'll spend the winter as a frequently-named trade candidate. Any or all of the three could be back next year. Any or all of the three could compete for and even claim roster spots. The team needs to have a lineup that works without contributions from any of them, though, and they have to count what they can get from each as a bonus.

Caissie undeniably has power potential--the kind that could translate to 30 or more home runs in a season someday. This month has been an exciting step in the direction of turning that potential into reality. Yet, once we account for the huge level jump in difficulty ahead for him, we have to acknowledge that he's not yet ready to cross that bridge. By next April, he might be. This season has brought positive signs, especially at the end. It just hasn't brought the breakout for which the Cubs might have hoped.

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