Cubs Should Place a Waiver Claim to Bolster Their Bullpen, for September and Beyond

[Matthew Trueblood]

There's a funny little freedom in the fact that this team already seems to be stuck paying the luxury tax.

Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants have placed left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers on outright waivers, making him available to teams to claim, if they're willing to take on the balance of his contract. Rogers, 33, is a somewhat complicated case, that way, because his contract is hefty. After signing a three-year, $33-million deal prior to 2023, the southpaw is still due about $14 million: $2 million for the rest of this year, and $12 million in 2025. That's more than most teams are willing to take on, at this time of year.

Most teams aren't in the unique, uncomfortable position the Cubs are in, though. Already likely to pay competitive-balance taxes this year (by the reckoning of their own chief decision-maker) and now chasing a remote playoff chance with full knowledge that falling just short would be a worst-case scenario for their season, the team should be both highly motivated to improve and only lightly discouraged by the money attached to Rogers. If they feel he can help them, they should pounce. And they should feel he can help him.

Rogers has pared down to become strictly a sinker-sweeper guy, in this later phase of his career. He's a good one, too. His 2.45 ERA overstates his excellence, cushioned as it is by the fact that he pitches at home in San Francisco, but he has a strong strikeout rate (28.2%) and limits walks (7.7%). He's very, very good at spin mirroring; hitters don't get a good chance to discern the difference between his two offerings. Yet, they move very differently.

A former closer for the Twins and Padres, Rogers has settled into more of a middle relief role for the Giants. He's pretty expensive for that kind of arm, but he would represent a roughly cost-neutral upgrade from Drew Smyly as a left-handed relief weapon for the Cubs going into next season. In the meantime, he'd help them in September, too, because Smyly is the only lefty on whom the team can count in the bullpen right now.

Snapping up Rogers right now is a no-brainer. It would save the team the trouble, uncertainty, and thorny market realities of the winter ahead, when they will have plenty of money to spend but could easily end up giving a multi-year deal to a pitcher just like Rogers, or another misbegotten deal for roughly the same amount on a one-year deal to a lesser hurler, like Héctor Neris. Shoring up the highly fluid relief corps a bit right now would make things easier as the team tries to build a more robust contender for 2025, and it would incrementally improve their odds of making an improbable run to October this year, too--at which point Rogers would also have huge value for them.

If the team is going to pay the luxury tax this year, anyway, they should eagerly add the paltry remaining money for Rogers to their rolls, knowing that Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, and plenty of others are coming off their books going into the winter. They have money to spend. They have an immediate and a medium-term need for relief help. They have an opportunity to use their flexibility to fill their needs and make it easier to focus on more important things. They should seize this moment.

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[jersey cubs fan]

This does not sound like a move they would be interested in making and I wouldn’t blame them. 

[Bertz]

I'd lean against this.  It's not an awful idea, I won't write a screed if they make it, but it's probably a bad idea.

Rogers isn't really an $11M caliber arm anymore.  Like these are the guys who got 8 figure AAVs last year

Hader

Kimbrel

Stephenson

Robertson

Chapman

Plus Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez who signed as SPs with a relief fallback

If Bellinger opts in, money's going to be a little tight this winter with ~$50M available to spend.  I don't think Rogers is talented enough to pay a premium for jumping the market. 

There is some value in getting Rogers a month with Hottovy, as well as going into the winter with RP being a less dire need.  But overall this would feel like the $9M no longer earmarked for Neris is burning a hole in Jed's pocket.  If he's itching to spend it I'd personally rather extend Lopez.