Porter Hodge is Establishing Why He’s the Best Reliever in the Cubs Bullpen

[ethandiamond]

Porter Hodge has been a pleasant addition to the Cubs' bullpen. Let's dive into the numbers.

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

When someone asks who the best reliever in the Cubs bullpen is, you may think of a few names. Perhaps the first to come to mind is Tyson Miller, a great find by the front office after he was designated for assignment by the Mariners in May. Miller has become one of Craig Counsell’s most trusted bullpen arms in his first full season in the major leagues. Perhaps the resurgent Jorge Lopez, who has a 0.54 ERA in 16.2 innings as a Cub, comes to mind. But for me, the name that comes to mind is Porter Hodge, who I believe is clearly the best reliever in the Cubs' bullpen.

The Cubs selected Hodge out of Cottonwood High School in Utah with their 13th-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. He didn’t play full-season ball with the Cubs until 2021 due to the minor league cancellation in 2020. He split time between the Arizona Complex League and Myrtle Beach that year, working as a starter in 10 of 14 games he played that season and posting a 7.28 ERA across both levels.

However, his numbers got significantly better following his promotion to the Pelicans. In 2022, he made 17 starts for Myrtle Beach, posting a 3.00 ERA before earning a call-up to South Bend and posting a 2.01 ERA in eight appearances (seven of which were starts). Hodge would spend his entire 2023 campaign in Tennessee, making 12 starts before converting to a bullpen role to accelerate his progression to the majors (as seen with other Cubs prospects in recent years, such as Daniel Palencia and Michael Arias). By the end of the season, Hodge had made 35 appearances with a 5.13 ERA, though the Cubs liked his stuff enough to protect him from the Rule-5 Draft this past offseason.

Hodge would begin his 2024 campaign off in Tennessee but earned a promotion to the Iowa Cubs after two scoreless appearances with the Smokies. Through 10 appearances in Iowa, Hodge’s numbers were not great, as he sported a 6.55 ERA. However, a struggling bullpen would lose Colten Brewer to a back injury on May 17th, and Hodge was brought up to The Show. Craig Counsell admitted that Hodge was not quite ready and had stuff he needed to work on, such as his command. Hodge would not appear in the Cubs' first four games following his call-up.

Still, with the Cubs down big on May 22nd vs. the Braves, Hodge would enter into the game in the 9th inning, throwing ten fastballs and striking out the side while barely missing the immaculate inning. He gradually began to grow into Counsell’s circle of trust. However, the concerns regarding his command showed themselves on a June 6th outing in Cincinnati, where granted, he did get screwed by the home plate umpire, but he still walked three batters and surrendered two earned runs which ultimately put the game out of reach. The next day, Jordan Wicks was activated off the injured list, and Hodge was sent back down to Iowa.

He would make three appearances for the I-Cubs after his demotion but was brought back to the major leagues on June 19th after Keegan Thompson was placed on the paternity list. This time, Hodge was here to stay. He announced his return with a 2.1 inning, five-strikeout performance vs. the Mets and has now worked his way into one of Craig Counsell’s high-leverage relievers. He picked up his first major league save in a 10-inning affair vs the Giants on June 27th. Since being recalled, Hodge has posted a 2.33 ERA with a 9.78 K/9 in 19.1 innings of work. He has kept his walks down to just a 2.79 BB/9 clip. He’s also posted 0.4 FanGraphs WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which trails only Héctor Neris among Cubs relievers in that timeframe. His ERA number ranks 4th among Cubs relievers in that window, behind Neris, Lopez, and Drew Smyly.

If Hodge ranks second among Cubs relievers in fWAR and fourth in ERA since being recalled, why am I claiming he’s establishing himself as our best reliever? Let’s take a look at some peripherals and data. Hodge sports a 2.75 FIP, which shows that his ERA is not all luck but has been good. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, is similar to ERA but instead focuses on what the pitcher has control over strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. It removes results of balls hit into the field of play; whether a ground to short or a double to the right; it is not factored into FIP. Hodge’s 2.75 ranks 3rd among qualified relievers since he was recalled. Only Héctor Neris and Jorge Lopez sport better FIP. What separates Hodge from those two is his stuff. Lopez allows a lot of ground balls, which is great for his ERA, but it’s also why his FIP is 2 points higher than his ERA. What Hodge and Neris rely on is their stuff. Below are the pitching summaries for Hodge and Neris since June 19th via Thomas Nestico (@TJStats on X/Twitter).

Hodge brings a largely two-pitch mix with his cut-ride fastball and sweeper, though he has begun to experiment with his splitter more as two of the four thrown since he was recalled came in his last outing. What separates him from Héctor is his extension. Extension affects how the batter perceives the ball, from release point to pitch recognition and especially pitch velocity. For example, when Hodge throws a 99 MPH fastball, a hitter would perceive it a few ticks faster because of where Hodge is throwing it. So, while it is only 99, a batter would see this as a pitch over 100 MPH. While the difference between 99 and 101 doesn’t sound like a lot, a batter’s approach to the pitch can change with just a few ticks up in velocity. Meanwhile, Hector’s relatively average extension means he doesn’t get that kind of variability difference with a hitter, and his fastball velocity is not very high most of the time. Instead, he has to rely on soft contact with his fastball or switch to his strong splitter and slider to help him get out.

While there can be an argument between Hodge and Neris as to who the better reliever is, I do think it’s Hodge, and I believe he will continue to establish that throughout the rest of the 2024 campaign as the Cubs try and get back into the playoff race. If Héctor slips back into his form pre-June 19th, Hodge would be the guy I would pick to take him out of the closer role. For now, though, let's hope both relievers keep doing well and that Hodge continues to improve his game and take it to the next level as the Cubs prepare for their most important stretch of the season.

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[We Got The Whole 9]

I still want him to start. I think he's a horse, the type whose velo won't diminish within a game. Keep working that splitter in and you could have something.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me the foundational thing with Hodge is throwing strikes. It's probably a big part of what got him removed from the pen, and it's the big differentiator in terms of his big league results.  I'm curious if there's a mechanical or other change that's been made to improve the strike throwing ability or make fewer uncompetitive pitches, because 25 innings is still a small sample but it's big enough that it's greater than the 'good couple weeks' we've seen from countless relievers before.  I don't see anything significant in plate discipline data between his limited AAA time and MLB, outside the fact that major leaguers are simply swinging a lot more despite a similar amount of pitches in zone and an unremarkable first pitch strike percentage.  Hopefully there's an underlying reason for that and an advanced scouting tweak to swing less doesn't send that walk rate back up north of 15% like it was at Iowa.