Dear Pete Crow-Armstrong: Stop Bunting, Dammit

[matto1233]

When executed well, the bunt is one of the most exciting plays in baseball. When not executed well, it's infuriating.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Bunting for a hit is awesome. As someone who grew up as a very undersized but fast baseball player, I have always appreciated the art of a good bunt. You should be trying to get on base any way you can, and something about a professional player laying down a bunt to claw their way to first base never fails to put a smile on my face. 

Now, as baseball becomes more focused on power and strikeouts rise, I also find myself enjoying the chaotic nature of a bunt for a hit. You might see a perfect bunt placed right where the defenders aren’t. You might see an awesome play by a third baseman to record the out. He also might chuck the ball down the right-field line, resulting in complete bedlam:

This brings me to the bunter in that highlight and the bunter in question: Pete Crow-Armstrong. When does bunting go too far? When is someone bunting too often? Allow me to share a screenshot with you from the Cubs’ 1-0 loss to the Brewers coming out of the All-Star break:

PCA was the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning, yet the Brewers were defending against a bunt. To clarify, he never squared around to bunt in this plate appearance, so perhaps the issue is more about how helpless he has been offensively than him bunting too much. He has hit two ground balls to the opposite field this season, so the Brewers might as well stick Joey Ortiz that close to the plate to defend against a possible bunt because there likely isn’t any other batted ball going that direction. He is way too easy to defend. Part of the reason that bunts are successful is because they are surprising to the defense. The Brewers weren’t going to be surprised here.

The Cubs’ rookie center fielder has come to the plate 195 times this season. He’s either struck out, walked, or been hit by a pitch 63 times, so 132 of his plate appearances have resulted in him swinging and making contact with the ball. According to Baseball Savant, he’s bunted 13 times. Almost 10 percent, 9.8 percent, to be precise, of PCA’s balls in play this season have been bunts. 

On one hand, one could argue that this is great! Crow-Armstrong is incredibly fast, and as I’ve already discussed, I love watching players do anything they can to get to first base, especially when they aren’t a huge home run threat. On the other hand, he’s not very good at it! Four of those 13 bunts have been a sacrifice bunt. He has just two hits on the nine bunts that weren’t recorded as a sacrifice. That would be a .222 batting average and a .222 slugging percentage since you’re setting your ceiling at a single when you attempt to bunt for a hit. 

Those numbers rank very poorly when you compare them to everyone else who has laid down more than ten bunts so far this year, all stats per Baseball Savant:

Player	Number of bunts	Batting average on bunts
Jacob Young	21	.533
Michael Siani	17	.500
Pete Crow-Armstrong	13	.222
Jake McCarthy	11	.375
Johan Rojas	11	.333
Michael A. Taylor	11	.286
Brice Turang	11	.429
Blake Perkins	10	.500
Jose Caballero	10	.375

This list is about what you’d expect. It's not exactly a murderers' row of power hitters, but mostly a list of smaller, quicker guys willing to do whatever it takes just to get to first base so those big power hitters can drive them in. As a matter of fact, Turang and McCarthy are the only two players listed here who have been above league average with the bat this season, and Turang is the only one with the prospect pedigree that PCA does. 

In a season that has otherwise been devoid of excitement, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s continued development might be one of the only things that will keep bringing me back to my television screen daily. This is a guy who was an above-average hitter at every level in the minor leagues. As fans, we all want to see him swing the bat so we can hopefully see him evolve into at least an average offensive player. Given his elite defense in center field, that might be all he needs to become an All-Star.

I know it’s been a struggle for him so far in the majors, and his .222 batting average on his bunts is higher than his season average of .180, but keep in mind, he can’t get anything more than a single on a bunt. He has a .196 wOBA on bunts this year, vs. an overall wOBA of .231. It hasn’t been effective. Are we already at the point where he feels the need to bunt for a hit at the same rate as low-offense players like Michael Siani? At the very least, if he is going to bunt so often, could he at least be better at it?

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[Bertz]

1 hour ago, matto1233 said:

PCA was the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning, yet the Brewers were defending against a bunt. To clarify, he never squared around to bunt in this plate appearance, so perhaps the issue is more about how helpless he has been offensively than him bunting too much. He has hit two ground balls to the opposite field this season, so the Brewers might as well stick Joey Ortiz that close to the plate to defend against a possible bunt because there likely isn’t any other batted ball going that direction. He is way too easy to defend. Part of the reason that bunts are successful is because they are surprising to the defense. The Brewers weren’t going to be surprised here.

Not trying to be mean, but nothing from this passage makes sense.  You're mad that he's bunting too much and that makes him too predictable and too easy to defend and your example is an at bat where the opposing team bit and defended against it despite it never happening?

[painhertz]

It's not like he can hit. How's he getting on base then?

[jersey cubs fan]

Disagree, he should square around before every pitch and only occasionally pull back and swing 

[matto1233]

10 hours ago, Bertz said:

Not trying to be mean, but nothing from this passage makes sense.  You're mad that he's bunting too much and that makes him too predictable and too easy to defend and your example is an at bat where the opposing team bit and defended against it despite it never happening?

Ha - no offense taken. Let me try again.

He’s not succeeding at it because it isn’t surprising to anyone. It isn’t surprising to anyone because he’s doing it way too often. He’s doing it way too often because he isn’t performing at the plate. Bunting so often is not helping his performance at the plate, nor is it helping his development. 

I am sure it can turn into something of a weapon for him, to whatever extent a bunt can be a weapon for an offensive player. But right now, it’s not working, and he needs the reps at the plate. That picture in particular is just an example of how easy he is to defend right now. He’s the winning run in the bottom of the ninth, and the Brewers are defending him as if he were a pitcher at the plate. 

He’s on pace for 37 bunts per 600 plate appearances. Nobody has done that since Billy Hamilton. He shouldn’t be this desperate at the plate. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

I might be in the minority but I love well executed bunts. If PCA can become really good at bunting with his speed=pure chaos. I'm not saying bunting should be his main offensive skill, I'm saying having that ability in his toolkit would make a dangerous hitter. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's right though. It's damn tough to execute a bunt for a hit when the 3B is 70 feet from the plate. Lately he's been squaring up a lot more balls. Hopefully this forces the defense into a regular alignment. Then he can start working that into his arsenal more. A lot of these bunts have been ABs just flushed down the toilet. Combining those with the ABs where he just got overmatched on 3-4 pitches and that's a high rate of uncompetitive ABs.