The Untouchables: The Five Players The Cubs Cannot (Should Not) Trade At The Deadline

[RandallPnkFloyd]

As we close in on the midway point of July, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the Chicago Cubs will be sellers at the MLB trade deadline.

There isn’t a stretch to talk them out if it in the way that we saw 2023. Veterans currently on the roster will no longer be so by the time the calendar flips over to August. 

Navigating that, though, remains a difficult task. The Cubs, at large, are an underperforming group. They don’t have a long list of players prospective teams will be keen to acquire. Given the roster construction, though, it’s hard to identify anyone who could or should be considered untouchable. Nevertheless, as this team probably hopes to contend next year, there are at least a couple of names we can likely establish as being part of the 2025 Cubs. 

That starts at the top of the starting rotation with Justin Steele & Shota Imanaga. 

The former still has three more years of arbitration eligibility. Ideally, the team signs him to an extension before the years get too deep into that. In terms of run prevention, Steele has been (somewhat quietly) better than he was during his Cy Young candidate last year. He’s pitched to a 2.95 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and continues to minimize walks. It took him 13 starts to get his first win, but it wasn’t to any fault of his own. 

And while Imanaga is 30, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs moving him in the first year of his deal. While he hasn’t been as dominant as he was to start the year, few expected him to be. Heavy flyballs will lead to more run production on the part of opposing hitters. But the stuff is absolutely there, and his uniquely structured contract should have him in town for at least three more years. There’s no reason to think the Cubs want to move forward with any two arms atop their starting five than Steele & Imanaga. 

Javier Assad likely pitched well enough to earn another (ideally healthy) year in the rotation if we wanted to extend the conversation. Ben Brown’s upside is too great for it to be considered. Given their health status, neither is part of the discussion, but one imagines neither would be seriously considered a trade candidate anyway.

In the field, things get murky. The offense – and, in some cases, the defense – has underperformed to such a degree that you wonder who would even pursue some of their bats, let alone whether the team has anyone up to being deemed untouchable. 

There’s at least one in the form of Michael Busch. While the strikeout remains north of 30 percent, he’s shown a certain maturity and level of consistency at the plate that’s a rarity throughout the lineup. He’s walking at a rate (12.6 percent) that compensates for his susceptibility to punchouts and has started July with a .278 ISO. He’s providing stability in a lineup that lacks it. 

It’s also hard to imagine the team would rush to trade Ian Happ, either. I’m not sure they’d go as far as labeling him untouchable. But he’s hitting extremely well and has an upper-tier approach for the days when he’s not. He’s as close to the face of this organization as they’ve had since the guys from 2016 and has two more years under contract. We’ll throw his outfield comrade Pete Crow-Armstrong in there, too. The defense plays at the highest level. His bat’s just a work in progress.

On the position side, though, that might be it. Seiya Suzuki is an interesting one. His defense is seemingly getting worse. But he’s showcasing more consistent power. Is it enough to compensate for his bouts of swing-and-miss or the defensive woes? Christopher Morel’s situation isn’t entirely dissimilar. He possesses massive power and has really reigned in the whiff of his game. A .219 BABIP is holding him down to a miserable extent. His defense, though, hasn’t taken the steps the team thought it might. It’s hard to imagine the team considering two separate players with notable defensive shortcomings to be untouchable. One or both could be moved.

Feet to the fire, this is the list of untouchables (without current health issues): Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong. Four of those are my perspective. The other one (Happ) is me trying to feign an understanding of the inner workings of the front office.

And that’s probably as far as I’d be willing to go. Teams wanting a prospective DH could absolutely pursue the likes of Suzuki or Morel. Cody Bellinger & Nico Hoerner each make a certain degree of sense to be moved. You can justify those on some level. Probably Happ, too, but I don’t think the team wants to do so anyway. You can’t, though, explain your way out of moving either of your upper-tier pitchers, your one stable (cost-controlled) bat, or your future defensive superstar. 

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[Bertz]

I would guess that, short of a faceplant coming out of the ASB, the recent surge has sealed off any possibility at deep cuts to the roster.  I don't think trading e.g. Hoerner ever made a ton of sense, but certainly now it's harder to justify.  Even if the team does still sell, I think it'll be Bellinger, mainly to ensure he's not on 2025 payroll, and otherwise minor 40 man roster cleanup stuff (i.e. Canario).

I do think, among the specific names here, I would quibble and say Assad is pretty movable.  The timing of here at the deadline is probably no good given the setbacks to Brown and Wicks, but just broadly.  I think when you combine current ability, upside, and durability there's not actually a ton of daylight between any of our young MLB SPs (plus Horton for that matter).  Moving one of those guys to get an answer at 3B or C is a very reasonable path to take sometime between now and next March.

[Illiterate Scholar]

What if I told you Seiya is at +4 DRS and -1 OAA in his last 1500 innings in RF. 

[Matt W]

If you told me that, I’d honestly be a bit shocked. That is definitely not what eye test is telling me…